BELGRADE, Yugoslavia -- No matter how many wars he loses, how much territory he surrenders or how much ethnic hatred and violence he unleashes, Yugoslav President Slobodan Milosevic remains the ultimate Balkan survivor.

Yet in rejecting a final Western ultimatum to allow a NATO-led force to keep the peace in war-torn Kosovo, Milosevic appeared yesterday to be risking everything, including Western attacks, in a bid to stay in power.

Closeted in his presidential office, Milosevic is the boss of a decaying country that has long been a thorn in the West's side. Even as Yugoslavia faced a grave crisis, he remained out of public view, a familiar gambit for a master of brinkmanship.

He took time to strengthen his hold on power by ousting his chief of military intelligence, Alexander Dimitrijevic, thus ridding his government of the last of the so-called moderates.

Few around the world can fathom why he would provoke the West to deliver devastating airstrikes to shake his grip over the Serbian province of Kosovo, where ethnic Albanians outnumber Serbs 9-to-1.

But Kosovo is holy ground to Serbs, the repository of sacred churches and monasteries, and the birthplace of their nationhood.

It was in Kosovo in April 1987 that Milosevic dramatically fanned the flames of Serbian nationalism and told Serbs: "No one will ever beat you again." That declaration helped propel him to the Yugoslav presidency in 1989.

Once the genie of ethnic nationalism was unleashed, the patchwork quilt of Yugoslavia unraveled, piece by bloody piece. During the Balkan conflicts that followed, Yugoslavia was torn asunder, as Croatia and Bosnia-Herzegovina were wrenched free after wars. Slovenia slipped away during a smaller conflict, and Macedonia negotiated its independence.

Montenegro, Serbia and its province of Kosovo are all that remain of the Yugoslavia forged by Marshal Tito. Were Milosevic to surrender Kosovo without a shot, it could prove the death blow for his regime.

"They said they can't accept foreign troops in Kosovo," said Serbian political analyst Bratislav Grubacic. "If they sign away Kosovo, they can never get it back. But if they lose it in a pure military defeat, they can regain Kosovo in the future."

Grubacic said there is no telling how the crisis would play out, because Milosevic is unlike almost any other political leader.

"We are not talking about someone with rationality," he said. "We are talking of someone who has twisted thinking."

But to the West, Milosevic has emerged as a middleman, capable of striking peace deals, principally in Bosnia.

"Milosevic matters. He is the only one who can deliver," said Serbian political analyst Pedrag Simic.

More important, many consider Milosevic to be the most dependable Serbian politician, especially when compared with Vojislav Seselj, the ardent nationalist and leader of the Radical Party.

Simic said the crisis might "eliminate many pro-Western, pro-American impulses to reform."

He added, "The winner could be Seselj. He is already threatening a Kristallnacht for foreigners."

(In 1938, Nazi storm troopers burned and ransacked Jewish businesses and synagogues in Germany and Austria in what became known as Kristallnacht, the "Night of Broken Glass.")

But it would be a mistake to underestimate Milosevic's ability to overcome obstacles that would sink others.

Milosevic has survived personal crises, including the suicides of his mother, father and favorite uncle. With a push from his wife and political confidante, Mira Markovic, he climbed the interconnected ladders of business and politics in Communist-era Yugoslavia.

In 1984, Milosevic headed the Belgrade branch of the Communist Party. Three years later, he ousted his political mentor to emerge as the Communist boss of Serbia.

To hold onto power, Milosevic controls the key elements of society, from the military to the media. He divides and conquers his foes. In the winter of 1996-1997, Milosevic was under tremendous pressure as demonstrators took to the streets in support of the opposition political group Together.

But Together fell apart when Milosevic split his opponents.

During this latest crisis in Kosovo, Milosevic used the fighting and Western threats as an excuse to shut independent newspapers, crack down on radio and television outlets, and purge Belgrade University of professors who refused to toe the government line.

Through it all, the public was fed a steady diet of censored news on state television.

Few here are sure how the crisis will affect Milosevic. Many are distressed that there are no opponents who can prevent Milosevic from steering Yugoslavia into a collision with the West.

"All those inclined for peace are removed," Grubacic said. "We are going to war."

Pub Date: 3/24/99