Vince Carter faced the decision last season: Should I return for my senior year, or go to the NBA?

Carter chose to leave North Carolina. He was drafted fifth by Golden State, then traded to Toronto for the fourth pick, Carolina teammate Antawn Jamison.

Today, Carter is one of the league's top rookies, averaging a team-high 16.2 points per game. His advice for Maryland's Steve Francis? Project where you'll be drafted, then decide.

"It all depends on what he wants," Carter said yesterday. "He had a great year. He can do well in the league. You just have to know how to play, and have determination once you get here. A lot of things are going to hit you in a hurry."

Francis said nearly a month ago that he was 99.9 percent certain that he would return to Maryland, but that was after the final home game of the season, when fans held signs and chanted his name pleading for him to return.

In the wake of the Terps' embarrassing 76-62 loss to St. John's in the Sweet 16, Francis can find at least two excellent reasons to stay, and millions of even better reasons to depart.

From a basketball perspective, it might be better for him to play his senior year. But from a financial perspective, no one should be surprised or upset if he leaves.

Francis, 21, did not come to Maryland to earn a degree. He came to improve his NBA prospects, and he did that brilliantly.

So, why even debate the issue?

Because by staying, Francis could spend a full season at point guard, his natural position, and the one he will play in the NBA.

Learning to recognize and attack defenses would only help him at the next level. And as an NBA point guard, he would need to make fewer mistakes.

"I would recommend that he stay," Orlando Magic general manager John Gabriel said. "That's our position in general, anyway. But I think he needs another year. It helps a player develop more."

By staying, Francis also could leave Maryland knowing that he had accomplished all that he could at College Park, instead of wondering what might have been.

He had as many turnovers as points (two) in the first half against St. John's. Does he want such an embarrassing defeat to be his legacy?

The answer probably is no.

And yet, it probably doesn't matter.

The two players to whom Francis is most often compared -- Allen Iverson and Stephon Marbury -- both left school early. And unlike Joe Smith, who was undersized for a power forward, Francis has the physical tools to succeed at the point.

Maryland coach Gary Williams likely will point to Smith as an example of the dangers of leaving early, and another of his NBA lottery picks, Walt Williams, as an example of the benefits of finishing your college career.

Smith, the No. 1 pick in 1995, is now with his third NBA team in Minnesota, and still isn't an impact player. Williams, now in his seventh NBA season in Portland, played the point during his senior year at Maryland, and further rounded out his game.

But are such arguments even relevant to Francis?

His rocky climb is well-chronicled. He lost his mother to cancer while in high school. He was held back by injuries, transfer rules and financial difficulties. He seemed destined to be nothing more than a playground legend until he landed at Maryland, his sixth school in six years.

Why should he delay the start of his earning cycle to face another year of zone defenses and hacking opponents? Who needs the risk of injury? And how much is he going to improve his draft position, anyway?

Carter said former North Carolina coach Dean Smith would contact NBA general managers to assess a player's draft chances. Anyone projected in the top eight, Smith would advise him to leave. Anyone projected below that, Smith would advise him to wait.

By conservative estimates, Francis would be a top five pick -- and he could be a top three selection depending on which other underclassmen enter the draft, and the needs of the teams in the lottery.

"I think he's a great prospect for the pros," Indiana Pacers president Donnie Walsh said yesterday. "I don't want to say anything that can be interpreted as enticing him to leave. But whenever he decides to come out, he'll be a top pick."

Francis, like Carter, is the kind of multi-dimensional talent whose game might be better suited for the pros than it is for college. NBA executives love his skills, his unselfishness, his court savvy.

"I like how hard he works," Gabriel said. "I watched a couple of his JuCo games on tape. He's an obvious offensive talent, but you've got to watch him play, end line to end line. He puts out a good effort on defense as well as offense."

Walsh was just as effusive.

"He's got real explosiveness and athleticism," Walsh said. "I think he'll be able to score from the outside or the inside, taking it to the goal. And I think he can be a great defender because of his athleticism.

"I haven't seen him bring the ball up much -- he'll have to make that conversion. But I think he can do that. I like what I see."

Would Francis be an immediate star? Probably not.

Would he transform his team into a winner? Iverson and Marbury are considered stars, but they've yet to do that.

"To me, being a point guard in the NBA is like being a quarterback in the NFL," Walsh said. "Not an easy transition by any means."

There it is, then -- a compelling argument for Francis to pull a Peyton Manning and return for his senior season. The difference is, Manning is the son of former NFL quarterback Archie Manning. He did not face financial pressure.

Marty Blake, the NBA's director of scouting, wouldn't comment on Francis specifically, but said, "None of 'em are ready -- the seniors aren't ready." Indeed, only two of the NBA's top 30 scorers are rookies -- Carter and Boston's Paul Pierce.

In the end, it comes down to what is best for the player. From Bob McAdoo to Michael Jordan to Vince Carter, Dean Smith encouraged his top stars to turn pro, putting his players' financial security ahead of the program's future.

As much as Francis might benefit from one more year at Maryland, his decision should be obvious. No one should be upset if he chooses the .1 percent over the 99.9. If you were Steve Francis, you'd probably do the same.

Pub Date: 3/20/99