HALLANDALE, Fla. -- This is the weekend to begin keeping score.
Headed by the Grade I, $750,000 Florida Derby today at Gulfstream Park, the weekend's five graded stakes for 3-year-olds should begin separating the contenders from the pretenders along the road to the Kentucky Derby.
"Right now we're down to the four or five big races that will produce the eight or 10 horses who deserve to be in the Kentucky Derby," said Carl Nafzger, who trains Vicar, the likely favorite in the Florida Derby.
Few races pack more punch than the Florida Derby in future impact upon the Triple Crown series. In the past 47 years, 35 horses who competed in this 1 1/8-mile stakes have won 48 Triple Crown events (18 Kentucky Derbys, 17 Preaknesses, 13 Belmonts).
Nafzger trained one: Unbridled. He won the Florida Derby in 1990 and then, after finishing third in the Blue Grass Stakes, won the Kentucky Derby. Because of Unbridled and now Vicar, Nafzger has been the center of attention this week at this South Florida track.
But the trainer who may make the most noise this weekend is Bob Baffert, who's in New Orleans. Baffert has no entrants in the Florida Derby, but horses from his rich stable will likely be favored in the other important stakes for 3-year-olds:
Grade II, $250,000 San Felipe Stakes, 1 1/16 miles, Santa Anita Park, today, 6 p.m. ESPN2. Baffert trains three of the seven entrants: Exploit, Finder's Gold and Prime Timber.
The undefeated Exploit heads most Kentucky Derby rankings, including the Daily Racing Form's, even though some question his ability to race effectively at the Derby distance of 1 1/4 miles. Four of his five victories have been at a mile or less.
Prime Timber, ranked second by the Form, is running against Exploit only because Baffert has so many Derby candidates he can't keep them separated. After gaining a reputation as a horse who dawdles on the lead, Prime Timber will wear blinkers for the first time in the San Felipe.
Grade III, $350,000 Fair Grounds Oaks, 1 1/16 miles, Fair Grounds, today, no TV in Maryland. Baffert's Silverbulletday, last year's champion 2-year-old filly, will be the likely 1-10 favorite against six fillies.
Baffert and Silverbulletday's owner, Mike Pegram, have made no overtures that the outstanding filly will take on males anytime soon. Her goal remains the Kentucky Oaks for fillies the day before the Derby.
Grade I, $250,000 Santa Anita Oaks, 1 1/16 miles, Santa Anita Park, tomorrow, no TV in Maryland. Baffert's Excellent Meeting, the filly who might be best suited for challenging the males at longer distances, could also be 1-10 against five fillies.
Grade II, $600,000 Louisiana Derby, 1 1/16 miles, Fair Grounds, tomorrow, 5: 30 p.m., ESPN2. Again, Baffert trains the likely favorite, General Challenge, ranked fourth among Derby prospects by the Racing Form. (Of the Form's top nine, Baffert trains six. The others are Excellent Meeting sixth, Silverbulletday seventh and Straight Man ninth.)
General Challenge is a California-bred who has not lost in three tries. His performance in New Orleans will reveal the first hints of how the West Coast horses measure up. Many say they're better than those east of the Mississippi.
And back here at Gulfstream Park, at about 5: 41 p.m. today on ABC, 10 colts and geldings will compete for the unofficial title of best 3-year-old in the East. Eddie Plesa Jr., trainer of the filly Three Ring, said yesterday that he will scratch his speedball because of her No. 10 post position.
That leaves the Manny Tortora-trained sprinter Valid Trefaire as the probable early leader. Vicar and Cat Thief, one-two in the Fountain of Youth Stakes here three weeks ago, will likely be on his heels.
Trainer Nick Zito has replaced his first string, The Groom Is Red and Doneraile Court. Stepping up are Adonis and Wondertross, a brother of Concerto developed last year by John J. Tammaro III in Maryland.
Pub Date: 3/13/99