Seldom has the outcome of the NCAA tournament seemed more certain before the first dribble. Duke's top-ranked Blue Devils are so good, and seemingly so superior to everyone else, that playing the tournament almost seems pointless.
But it also seemed pointless eight years ago, when an undefeated Nevada-Las Vegas team loomed large over everyone and lost to Duke in the national semifinals.
Eight years before that, a Houston team including Hakeem Olajuwon and Clyde Drexler also seemed vastly superior to the rest of the field until it lost to North Carolina State in the final.
Get the point? As much as it probably makes sense just to give Duke the title now, save everyone laundry expenses and use the TV time to show more suspenseful programs such as "The Making of 'Teletubbies,' " it's good the NCAA isn't calling the tournament off because of a lack of competition.
Overwhelming favorites don't always win.
Granted, this Duke team is more disciplined and tested against top competition than those UNLV and Houston teams, and thus less likely to suffer an upset.
But sometimes, even when an upset seems laughingly impossible, one occurs.
That's true in every sport, of course, not just college basketball. The Colts couldn't lose to the Jets in Super Bowl III. The Orioles couldn't lose to the Mets in the 1969 World Series. The Soviets couldn't lose to the United States in the 1980 Olympic ice hockey competition. But they all did.
Don't take that as a prediction that Duke is about to lose somewhere in the madness of March. That would be a foolish suggestion, given the Blue Devils' 32-1 record and 27-game winning streak.
With their inside and outside scoring threats, relentless defense, depth, strong ball-handling and high energy, the Blue Devils have no weaknesses for opponents to exploit.
"Their practices must be a lot more interesting than most of their games," North Carolina State freshman Adam Harrington said at the ACC tournament last weekend.
If you don't have the Blue Devils winning it all in your office pool bracket, you're either a Carolina sicko or don't care about losing the entry fee.
The odds on their winning their third title in nine years are short, extremely short. But that doesn't mean the tournament is over before it begins. Only four times in the past 20 years has the team ranked No. 1 going into the tournament gone on to win the title.
What's over -- a slam-dunk, 100-percent certainty -- is a Duke victory over Florida A&M; in the first round. The Rattlers, who upset Coppin State and Morgan State on their way to the Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference tournament title, started the season with 10 straight losses and currently stand 12-18. They're a tad overmatched.
Near the end of his team's win in the MEAC tournament title game, Rattlers coach Mickey Clayton saw his brother in the stands holding up a "We Want Duke" sign for a national TV audience.
"He's been in a mental asylum most of his life," Clayton said later, jokingly, about his brother. "I said, 'What's wrong with you, boy? We want to go and advance, but we don't want Duke.' "
The miracle is that oddsmakers even established a point spread (44) on the game, which Duke can win by whatever margin it chooses.
After FAMU, the Blue Devils would play College of Charleston, Temple and Miami (barring upsets) as they motor through the East Regional. Those are quality teams that have no shot.
Only a few of the 63 other teams in the field can even compete with the Blue Devils, much less beat them.
Kentucky, winner of two of the past three national titles, probably could give the Blue Devils a game. These Wildcats aren't quite as strong, as their 25-8 record indicates, but they start three seniors who wouldn't be the least bit intimidated.
Utah also probably could give the Blue Devils a game. The Utes have a 20-game winning streak and the college game's best coach, Rick Majerus. They played in the national title game last year.
Connecticut probably is the nation's second-best team, with its poise, intelligence and forceful transition game. True, the Huskies never have gone to the Final Four, a major mental obstacle. But they're about to break through.
Oh, and Cincinnati obviously can play with the Blue Devils, seeing as it beat them earlier in the season. Yes, the Bearcats have faded lately, but who knows?
Maryland? Let's not even talk about it.
There's only one way for any of these teams to score the upset -- get ahead early, get the crowd going and see how the Blue Devils handle the stress. They haven't often had to play from behind, which can be tough as a heavy favorite away from home.
Duke would react well, no doubt. But well enough?
To their credit, the Blue Devils seem well aware that even powerhouses are vulnerable.
"If I have to pop in a tape of that [1991 Duke-UNLV] game to remind my teammates that [a loss] can happen, I will," Duke junior Chris Carrawell said. "It can happen to us."
It probably won't. The Blue Devils are too good, and their competition just isn't that strong.
But an upset isn't impossible. These are college kids, not hardened pros. And even if there's every reason to believe the Blue Devils will cruise, the tournament is called March Madness for a reason.
Pub Date: 3/10/99