The top four seeds are all but set.
It's the other 60 that leave much room for debate.
With the NCAA tournament selection committee still behind closed doors in a Kansas City, Mo., hotel room, the four months of the college basketball season has dwindled down to a few precious hours before the field of dreamers will be announced tonight on national television.
Though the bubble has gotten smaller with most of the conference tournaments played out, the arguments rage on.
Among them: Will Wake Forest's loss to North Carolina State in Friday's Atlantic Coast Conference quarterfinals and the Wolfpack's subsequent defeat to Duke yesterday eliminate both teams from consideration, or will they find a way to sneak in?
Will Minnesota's defeat to Illinois in the opening round of the Big Ten tournament knock the Gophers down a few notches in the seedings, or knock them into the NIT for the second year in a row?
Will Rhode Island's run to last night's Atlantic 10 title mean one fewer team for a league that has suddenly lost much of its luster?
Those questions have yet to be answered, but a few of yesterday's more significant results have clarified at least which teams will likely emerge as top seeds and where they might be headed.
Regardless of what happens this afternoon in the ACC tournament final in Charlotte, N.C., Duke will be the No. 1 seed in the East. The same is true for Michigan State in the Big Ten final in Chicago. The Spartans are definitely staying in the Midwest.
But Auburn's loss to Kentucky in the semifinals of the Southeastern Conference tournament in Atlanta, and Maryland's loss to North Carolina in the ACC semifinals, seemingly sealed the fate of the Tigers and the Terrapins as No. 2 seeds.
With its easy victory last night over St. John's in the Big East final, Connecticut secured its No. 1 seed in the South. Despite Oregon State's upset over visiting Stanford in the Pac-10 regular-season finale last night, the Cardinal should be the No. 1 seed in the West.
Here's one opinion on how the brackets might look when the bids come out tonight:
East Region
Duke will return to the Charlotte Coliseum, site of this week's ACC tournament, to play the lowest-rated team in the field of 64. As of yesterday, the team with the lowest RPI would be Florida A&M;, which won the Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference tournament. Considering the need for a Big East team at the Fleet Center in Boston, No. 2 seed St. John's will likely be the choice. Arizona will be the third seed, and Indiana fourth. If you're looking for an interesting matchup, how about fifth-seeded Purdue against 12th-seeded Gonzaga?
Rounding out the field in Boston will be sixth-seeded UNC-Charlotte and 11th-seeded Cal, which gets in on the strength of its Pac-10 wins over Arizona and UCLA as well as its non-league win over North Carolina. Also, seventh-seeded Temple and 10th-seeded Mississippi State, which got off the bubble by beating Tennessee in the SEC tournament.
Among those headed to Charlotte will be the Hoosiers, who will play 13th-seeded Penn. The best matchup there will be between eighth-seeded Texas and ninth-seeded College of Charleston, which has carved its reputation as an NCAA tournament giant-killer and could claim the Longhorns as its latest victim.
South Region
A month ago, the Huskies looked like a lock for a No. 1 seed. Then they lost at home twice -- to Syracuse without Richard Hamilton, and to Miami -- before they knocked off Stanford in Palo Alto. They appeared to be headed West ahead of the Cardinal until Auburn lost at Arkansas a couple of weeks ago, and again yesterday to Kentucky.
Auburn gets to stay in its region, as the No. 2 seed. Geography tells us that the Tigers will play at the Orlando Arena and the Huskies at the RCA Dome in Indianapolis. So where will the fans come from? If Miami is seeded third, its fans can go to Orlando, while UCLA, the fourth seed, and No. 5 seed Ohio State can fill up the building formerly known as the Hoosier Dome.
Depending on what happened in the small conference tournaments this weekend, the Huskies could draw Mount St. Mary's as their first-round opponent. Also joining Connecticut in Indianapolis will be No. 8 seed Missouri and No. 9 seed Southwest Missouri State, with both teams ready to show the world they are worthy of their seedings.
The Buckeyes could wind up playing Siena. In a rematch from the 1995 national semifinals, UCLA could play Oklahoma State, which got off the bubble with its Big 12 Conference wins over Oklahoma and Texas. George Washington fell to an 11th seed with its loss to Rhode Island in the Atlantic 10 semis, and will face No. 6 seed Louisville. No. 7 Arkansas and No. 10 Creighton will meet in the other game.
Midwest Region
The Louisiana Superdome was having trouble selling tickets to the first- and second-round games there. So the question was asked: which team brings its own sellout? The answer is Kentucky, and despite possibly coming in as a No. 4 seed, the Wildcats still wield tremendous power when shaping this region.
Cincinnati is the No. 2 seed despite losing to UNC-Charlotte in the Conference USA tournament, and will probably wind up with someone like the SWAC champion. Based on its RPI, North Carolina will likely be seeded No. 3 and Iowa drops to a No. 5 seed and could face an interesting first-round game against Midwestern Collegiate champ Detroit in the Big Easy.
The middle of the Midwest seedings will be filled with an eclectic bunch, including No. 6 Washington, No. 7 TCU, No. 8 Miami of Ohio, No. 9 Syracuse and No. 10 Oklahoma. The Orangemen looked as if they were in trouble two weeks ago, but two strong games in the Big East tournament have locked up their bid.
The bottom of the seedings will have Murray State at No. 13, and a matchup with the Wildcats will produce a week filled with pre-game fodder in the Bluegrass state.
It won't have quite the electricity of a Kentucky-Louisville matchup, but the defending national champion had looked a bit shaky prior to the Southeastern Conference tournament.
Another interesting team in the region will be Valparaiso, which could be a dangerous 14 team and if matched up with North Carolina, could give the Tar Heels some problems with its perimeter game.
West Region
This could be an interesting region, especially one with a lot of interest to Maryland fans. With yesterday's loss to North Carolina, the Terrapins are unlikely to move ahead of Stanford as the No. 1. While the committee likes to avoid regular-season rematches in early-round games, it's sometimes unavoidable the deeper it goes.
The Cardinal's chance as the No. 1 seed was hurt by its loss last night at Oregon State. Joining Stanford in Seattle would be No. 4 seed Wisconsin and No. 5 Kansas. Joining Maryland in Denver will be No. 3 seed Utah, making Maryland's potential road to the Final Four ever more treacherous.
Both Stanford and Utah made the Final Four last year; the Terrapins have yet to get that far. The Jayhawks are the kind of team that could lose in the first round to someone like Rhode Island or in the second, as has been their habit recently. Another interesting team in this region will be Tenneseee, which had been playing well of late until losing to Mississippi State in the SEC tournament.
Florida is another team to watch in the West, and has the kind of shooters that could beat a team like No. 9 seed Tulsa in the first round. Other teams that could be shipped West this year include Nebraska as a No. 10 and Kent as a No. 11 seed.
Pub Date: 3/07/99