MANCHESTER, N.H. -- All the familiar trappings of a Pat Buchanan rally were there: The peasant with a pitchfork. The great-grandmother in the cherry-red "Go Pat Go" cap. The banner with the toll-free number and that latest must-have, a Web address.

Some of the old excitement seemed to be missing, however. Even the candidate appeared uncharacteristically subdued as he returned to New Hampshire for what has become his quadrennial rite.

Once again, Buchanan is taking the presidential plunge, joining an increasingly crowded field for the Republican nomination in 2000. His goal, he said, is to "redefine what it means to be a conservative" and to make the Republican Party "the natural home" for workers who have been left out of America's economic boom.

His hastily organized and rather perfunctory announcement speech -- essentially a restatement of the economic populism of his last campaign -- was greeted enthusiastically by a crowd of about 200, but not wildly so.

This time around, Buchanan faces stiffer competition for the support of religious and social conservatives than he has in the past. And he's offering no audacious predictions of victory.

Many top aides from his previous campaigns are staying away or have signed up with other candidates. The national climate in which his candidacy might best thrive -- economic hard times -- seems nowhere in sight.

"If I am elected," Buchanan said -- perhaps mindful that, after two national campaigns and dozens of primary elections, he has one victory (in New Hampshire in 1996) to his name.

Populism is focus

Buchanan is again making economic populism the centerpiece of his campaign. He is also repeating his call for reductions in U.S. military deployments overseas, increased funding for missile defense and a moratorium on immigration.

During his 20-minute speech, he made no mention of potential rivals. He took a swipe at President Clinton, accusing him of having "desecrated" the White House by using it as a place "to shake down corporate executives, to lie with abandon to the American people [and] as a place to exploit women."

"It is time to call down the curtain on the sorry soap opera in the White House," Buchanan said, igniting the strongest cheers of the day.

Only at the end, after working his way through a prepared text, did he offer the faithful a blast from the past, one reminder of the irrepressible Buchanan of old.

"As we say, mount up and ride to the sound of the guns!" chortled the candidate, his wife, Shelley, at his side.

Risky run

In some respects, Buchanan's third ride may be his riskiest. In 1992, his insurgent candidacy rattled President George Bush in the New Hampshire primary and foreshadowed the incumbent's defeat to Bill Clinton that fall. Four years later, Buchanan won here but eventually finished a distant second to Bob Dole in the nomination race.

Buchanan, 60, is gambling that he won't become a parody of himself or, worse, an irrelevancy -- a perennial loser who is increasingly on the periphery of the debate about where the country should go.

His decision to run caught many former supporters by surprise. Some at the announcement ceremony, held at a Best Western motel on the outskirts of New Hampshire's largest city, seemed uncertain about where his candidacy might wind up.

"People are curious," said Mike Biundo, Buchanan's deputy campaign director in the state last time but a neutral observer this year. "We just have to wait and see how it all turns out."

Excitment of campaigning

Buchanan had said that he would not run again unless he thought he could win. Yet it is also clear that the conservative commentator entered the presidential contest, at least in part, because the joy and excitement of running beats the sterile world of the CNN studio.

"There are parts of campaigning I love and enjoy," he said on a radio talk show here.

Just as he did four years ago, Buchanan says he's running because no other candidate is speaking to the economic anxieties of ordinary Americans.

But after eight years of unparalleled prosperity, the pockets of gloom may be harder to find than in 1992 and even 1996. The jobless rate in Iowa and New Hampshire, two key early states, has dropped below 3 percent, far under the national average, which represents the brightest employment picture in decades.

On Monday, Buchanan campaigned in Weirton, W.Va., where hundreds of steel workers have lost their jobs in the face of competition from inexpensive imports. Later this month, he will go to Louisiana, where hundreds have been laid off at a Fruit of the Loom plant.

"He's going to have to broaden his appeal," says Greg Mueller, his former communications director who remains personally close to Buchanan. Like other former aides, Mueller is already committed to another candidate -- in his case, millionaire publisher Steve Forbes.

Buchanan's sister, Bay, chairwoman of his 1996 campaign, is expected to serve as an adviser but is not leaving her job at the MSNBC cable network. She did not attend yesterday's ceremony. Terry Jeffrey, the 1996 campaign manager, is remaining in his job as editor of Human Events, a conservative publication.

Long odds at start

Though Buchanan declared his candidacy a bit earlier than he did four years ago, he starts out much further behind. He does not have a campaign manager in New Hampshire, where other candidates have been wooing voters almost nonstop since the 1996 campaign ended.

At the moment, the Republican field for the 2000 presidential nomination is large and growing. Yesterday, Texas Gov. George W. Bush, currently the man to beat, confirmed that he is forming an exploratory committee.

Other likely contenders include Forbes, former Vice President Dan Quayle, former Gov. Lamar Alexander of Tennessee, Sens. John McCain of Arizona and Robert C. Smith of New Hampshire, Rep. John R. Kasich of Ohio and former Reagan administration officials Gary Bauer, Alan L. Keyes and possibly Elizabeth Hanford Dole.

"There's too many people," says Bill McInturff, a Republican pollster who is advising McCain. "Something's got to give."

Buchanan faces stiffer competition for the votes of religious conservatives, who make up about 30 percent of the Republican primary electorate. Other candidates expected to contend for those votes include Quayle, Forbes, Bauer, Keyes and Smith.

"That vote is up for grabs," says McInturff, who says it is likely that some contenders will be eliminated before the first primary here in February.

Buchanan has never been able to draw more than about one-third of the Republican vote, which has made it possible for him to become a finalist but never to win the nomination.

"Pat has the ability to be very strong in the early primaries and caucuses," says Mueller, his former aide. "The problem is the endgame."

Pub Date: 3/03/99