ON DEC. 31, 1998, when the Dow Jones industrial average average closed at 9,181.43, Charles Carnaggio of Lutherville became our contest winner with his year-end forecast of DJ 9,183. He made the projection last January when the Dow was around 7,875. About 2,500 entries were received.
The winner and his wife will be dinner guests of Mr. and Mrs. Ticker at Michael's Cafe, the Carnaggios' favorite restaurant.
Carnaggio, a retired Bell Atlantic equipment installer, said: "I felt that the high-tech, regional Bells and pharmaceutical stocks would do very well. Computers use many telephone lines and pharmaceuticals regularly come out with new medicines."
Second-place goes to Bernard Brown, Havre de Grace, with DJ 9,187. "I thought the Pacific Rim countries would recover and as the recovery started, the 'bulls' would start buying stocks heavily, especially computer issues," said Brown, an international marketer.
Mr. and Mrs. Brown will be our luncheon guests.
Each of these next 10 closest contestants, listed in order, will receive a book about money and investments:
Carolyn Beyerle, 9,175; Donald Traeger, 9,173; Gerry Lawrence, 9,173; Goodwin Solins, 9,173; Harvey Jones, 9,190; Betsy Hampton, 9,201; Leonard Engel, 9,159; Elliott Lyons, 9,206; Patrick Dougherty, 9,152; and Mary Jane McGowan, 9,211.
WHERE FOR 1999? "The Dow will close over 12,000 this year. Strong recent buying on weak days a positive signal." (Laszlo Birinyi, money manager.)
"The Dow is now at fair value. It will end the year at 9,850." (Abby Joseph Cohen, Goldman Sachs.)
"At year-end the Dow will stand at 9,000. P/E ratios have to come down." (Marshal Acuff, Salomon Smith Barney.)
"Technology and growing use of the Internet by consumers are inflation-fighters. Dow will close 1999 at 10,300." (Thomas Galvin, Donaldson Lufkin & Jenrette.)
Pub Date: 1/06/99