As more and more Marylanders make up their minds in the gubernatorial race, Gov. Parris N. Glendening remains locked in a statistical dead heat with Republican Ellen R. Sauerbrey, a new poll shows.
Glendening holds a slender 47 percent to 45 percent edge over Sauerbrey, a figure that falls within the poll's margin of error. Eight percent of the sample was undecided, according to the survey of likely voters done for The Sun and three other news organizations.
The poll, coming less than four weeks before the Nov. 3 election, found that more than two-thirds of the voters have firmly settled on a candidate. That's a substantial increase since a poll early last month, when only about half of voters had committed to one or the other.
In the remaining weeks, both candidates will be working to win over the undecided, to consolidate their base support and to get their voters to the polls on Election Day.
"Either candidate can win this," said Keith Haller of Potomac Survey Research, which conducted the poll. "Every single last vote will count." He said the Maryland contest appears to be the tightest race for governor in the nation.
There was mixed news for each candidate in the poll, which was taken over five days last week.
Glendening, for example, appears to be cementing his hold on traditional Democratic constituencies -- particularly African-Americans and the elderly.
Despite Sauerbrey's call for an income tax cut for retirees, Glendening's lead among voters over age 65 has grown in the past month. Forty-nine percent of those voters support Glendening, while 38 percent favor Sauerbrey.
The governor is also favored by 70 percent of black voters surveyed, compared to 10 percent for Sauerbrey. In the previous poll, Sauerbrey's support among African-Americans had reached 19 percent.
Among Glendening's African-American supporters is Annie M. Lawrence, a 50-year-old Northwest Baltimore resident who said she could never pull the lever for a Republican.
In addition, Sauerbrey has rubbed her the wrong way. "I think he did a good job, and I just don't like her," said Lawrence, who was among poll respondents who agreed to be interviewed later by a reporter.
The poll found that Glendening maintains leads in the three jurisdictions that he carried in the 1994 election -- Baltimore City and Montgomery and Prince George's counties.
But the poll found that Glendening's job approval rating statewide has slipped in recent weeks. In September, 53 percent of those polled approved of his job performance as governor. That number dropped to 49 percent in the new poll.
Frank A. Lipsitz, a retired postal worker from Southwest Baltimore and a self-described liberal, said he will vote for Glendening but with little enthusiasm.
"I'm not thrilled with him," Lipsitz said. "I don't think he can be trusted. But I think he's the lesser of the two evils."
Broadened appeal
Meanwhile, Sauerbrey, who built her 1994 race against Glendening on the issue of cutting the state income tax, appears to have expanded her appeal.
Explaining why they will vote for her, Sauerbrey's backers rank her position on education equally with her tax-cutting plan, a reflection perhaps of her highly regarded television ads touting her plans for improving public schools.
Haller said Sauerbrey was well-positioned heading into the final weeks.
Voters who are just forming an opinion of her seem to like what they are learning. During the past three months, the number of voters who have a favorable impression of her climbed from 45 percent to 53 percent, while her unfavorable rating went from 30 percent to 34 percent.
"People who didn't know her in July generally have a good impression now," Haller said.
It is the tax issue that resonates with respondents such as Gail E. Redtman, a secretary from Essex, who said Sauerbrey has a better feel for the needs of working people and the middle class, particularly in areas such as Highlandtown, where Redtman once lived.
"There are a lot of people there who aren't that well off," said Redtman, 51, a registered Republican. "She's working to cut taxes for older people. I just have a feeling that Mrs. Sauerbrey will be more in touch with how they have to live."
A healthy majority of voters, 57 percent, disagree that Sauerbrey is "too conservative" for a state like Maryland -- a reflection perhaps of her persistent effort to soft-peddle her traditionally conservative views on issues such as abortion, gun control and the environment.
'Two very different visions'
"This is a watershed election in Maryland that offers a clear choice between two very different visions for Maryland's future," said Peter S. Hamm, Glendening's campaign spokesman. "The stakes are very high. Everyone needs to get out and vote on November 3."
Jim Dornan, a Sauerbrey spokesman, called the poll "just a snapshot."
"We knew it would be a very close race, and we believe the voters of Maryland are responding very positively to Ellen's promise of better schools, safer streets and lower taxes," he added.
The phone poll surveyed 1,204 registered voters, nearly all of whom cast ballots in at least one election in the past four years. Eighty-eight percent said they are "certainly" going to vote in the November election, while 12 percent said they would "probably" vote.
The answers to questions asked of the entire sample have a margin of error of plus or minus 2.8 percentage points, meaning that there is a 95 percent probability that the actual results would fall within that range if all state voters were surveyed.
Answers to questions asked of smaller groups of voters, such as the elderly or African-Americans, have a larger margin of error.
Besides The Sun, the poll was conducted for the Montgomery Gazette, WRC-TV and WTOP radio in Washington.
Other findings
The poll also found:
Former Gov. William Donald Schaefer holds a 57 percent to 28 percent lead over Republican Larry M. Epstein in the race for state comptroller. Schaefer rolled up strong support in all areas of the state except the Eastern Shore, Western Maryland and Montgomery County, where he is widely perceived to have done too much to help Baltimore City during his time as governor.
State Attorney General J. Joseph Curran Jr., making a bid for a fourth four-year term, maintains a relatively modest lead of 46 percent to 24 percent over Republican Paul H. Rappaport.
Despite impending impeachment proceedings, President Clinton's job approval rating climbed slightly, from 56 percent to 58 percent, since the last poll a month ago, a period that included the release of independent counsel Kenneth W. Starr's report.
The president is especially popular among the state's African-American voters -- 90 percent of whom approve of the way he is handling his job, the poll found.
Haller said Clinton could be a major ally of Glendening's -- if the president were so inclined.
"A rally with Clinton in the streets of Baltimore might be a smart tactic, the best option of energizing the African-American community," Haller said. Some Maryland Democrats were hoping arrange an appearance of some sort.
At the same time, Haller said, Glendening's off-again, on-again support for Clinton could harden the perception that the Democratic governor shifts with every gust of political wind.
After first supporting Clinton, Glendening called him a poor role model last month and canceled a fund-raiser Clinton was due to attend. The governor also stayed away from a Clinton visit to Silver Spring -- but the Glendening campaign now says he would welcome a visit from the president.
Similarly, Haller said Glendening would likely be helped by an association with U.S. Sen. Barbara A. Mikulski, who is running for election against perennial Republican candidate Ross Z. Pierpont. The poll showed that 68 percent of voters have a favorable opinion of Mikulski, a percentage that is constant among nearly all demographic groups.
The poll also showed that Glendening's running mate, Lt. Gov. Kathleen Kennedy Townsend, is viewed favorably by 54 percent of voters. Just 18 percent have an unfavorable impression.
In contrast, Sauerbrey's running mate, former U.S. Attorney Richard D. Bennett, remains little known. Only 23 percent of voters had an opinion of him.
Why do you like your candidate?
Marylanders who have decided to vote for Gov. Parris N. Glendening were asked: "Among the following five choices, which one comes closest to your main reason for wanting to vote for him?" Here's how they answered: He's done a good job overall. 38% I never will vote for Ellen Sauerbrey. 20% He'll be much better on protecting the environment. 13% He'll do the best job improving state schools. 12% He'll keep abortion legal and that's important. 5% Not sure/None of the above. 10%
Similarly, Marylanders who have decided to vote for Ellen R. Sauerbrey were asked why they support her:
She is committed to cutting taxes. 25%
She'll do the best job improving state schools. 25%
I am voting against Parris Glendening. 17%
It's time for Republicans to run the state. 15%
She'll be much tougher on crime. 11%
Not sure/None of the above. 7%
Source: Potomac Survey Research
The poll results
President Clinton has a higher job approval rating among Marylanders than Gov. Parris N. Glendening does. In the race for state comptroller, former Gov. William Donald Schaefer has a commanding lead over Republican Larry M. Epstein. But Attorney General J. Joseph Curran Jr.'s lead over Republican Paul H. Rappaport is less secure.
Job ratings
Do you approve or disapprove of the way Bill Clinton is handling his job as president?
Approve 58%
Disapprove 36%
Not sure 7%
Do you approve or disapprove of the way Parris Glendening is handling his job as governor?
Approve 49%
Disapprove 40%
Not sure 11%
The November election
If the election for comptroller were held today, would you vote for William Donald Schaefer, the Democrat, or Larry Epstein, the Republican?
Schaefer 57%
Epstein 28%
Not sure 15%
And if the election for attorney general were held today, would you vote for Joseph Curran, the Democrat, or Paul Rappaport, the Republican?
Curran 46%
Rappaport 24%
Not sure 30%
Tell me whether you agree or disagree with these statements: Parris Glendening's character and integrity concern me.
Agree 42%
Disagree 48%
Not sure 10 %
I have serious doubts about Ellen Sauerbrey as governor because she's too conservative for a state like Maryland.
Agree 34%
Disagree 57%
Not sure 10%
Ellen Sauerbrey has proposed giving senior citizens a major tax break on their retirement earnings, costing the state about $200 million. Does this proposal make you more likely or less likely to support her, or does it not make a difference?
More likely 33%
Less likely 17 %
No difference 47 %
Not sure 4%
Have the events surrounding the investigation of President Clinton and Monica Lewinsky made you more or less likely to vote this November, or will it have no impact on your plans?
More likely 19%
Less likely 3%
No impact 76%
Not sure 3%
Note: The poll was conducted Sept. 29 through Oct. 3 by Potomac Survey Research of Bethesda for The Sun and three Washington area news organizations: the Montgomery Gazette, WRC-TV and WTOP radio. Results are based on interviews with 1,204 likely voters. The margin of error is plus or minus 2.8 percent. The margin of error is larger for subgroups, such as African-Americans or voters from a particular county. In questions asking about more than one candidate, the order of candidate names was rotated.
Source: CHARLES W. JONES: SUN STAFF
The big quiestion
If the election for governor were held today, would you vote for Parris Glendening and Kathleen Kennedy Townsend, the democrats, or Ellen Sauerbrey and Richard Bennett the Republicans?
Margin of error is plus or minus 2.8 percentage points
Glendening/Townsend 47%
Sauerbrey/Bennett 45%
Undecided 8%
SOURCE: Potomac Survey Research/CHARLES W. JONES: SUN STAFF
Pub Date: 10/07/98