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Germany's Kohl in fight of his life Charismatic rival may defeat chancellor in elections tomorrow

THE BALTIMORE SUN

BONN, Germany -- Beneath a gilded clock at Bonn's Old Town Hall, German Chancellor Helmut Kohl is battling against time and a chorus of hecklers who whistle and shout, "Kohl Must Go!"

During the last days of what is likely his final political campaign, Kohl reflects on 16 years in power, ticks off the world leaders he has known and the historic moments he has influenced.

Then, drowning out the hecklers, he bellows, "Consistency, duty, courage, all of this is not old-fashioned."

Thirteen miles away in the gleaming Cologne Arena, Gerhard Schroeder strides down the center aisle like a boxer pursuing a world title. The crowd of 20,000 stands and roars for the challenger.

"Germany has the choice, between a new start and stagnation," Schroeder tells the audience, "between powerful leadership and sluggish leadership."

This is the race to become Germany's chancellor and Europe's most powerful leader heading toward a new century.

The campaign reaches its conclusion with tomorrow's national election that now appears too close to call.

Down by as many as 12 percentage points in early opinion surveys, Kohl and his Christian Democratic Union have clawed to within 2 to 5 points of the left-leaning Schroeder and his Social Democratic Party.

A third of the electorate still declares itself undecided, and Germany's complex multiparty system virtually guarantees that a governing coalition will have to be forged after the vote.

In a campaign where style has edged out substance and no direct debates have taken place, the two men are serving themselves up as symbols of modern Germany. What divides them isn't so much policy, as personality and history.

The 68-year-old Kohl comes from the generation that knew first-hand the horrors of World War II and the tough task of creating Germany's postwar "economic miracle." To his supporters, Kohl -- at 6 feet 4 inches and 300 pounds -- is living proof that size does matter, that he is the big man who can help Germany withstand turbulent times.

Schroeder, 54, is angling to become the first German chancellor who was a child of the postwar era.

The prime minister of Lower Saxony state, Schroeder represents a new German generation that is at ease with itself and its place in the world. With his Italian suits, dyed brown hair and ice-blue eyes, Schroeder is the country's most charismatic politician.

Main issue is jobs

The central campaign issue is jobs. There are now almost 4 million unemployed in Germany, more than 10 percent of the work force. Germany's economic recession has eased, but the labor market remains burdened by rigid rules that make it expensive to hire and fire workers.

The main parties agree on the essentials to get the country back to work: cut taxes and reform the welfare state. But they differ on the specifics.

The Social Democrats blocked a government tax cut plan, claiming that it was too generous to the rich and too stingy to the middle class and poor. The Social Democrats pledged to restore a government-sponsored cut of the basic retirement pension. But most analysts agree that once in power, Schroeder will have to drop his all-gain-and-no-pain stance and begin to deal realistically with the economy.

"It's like the American campaign in 1992 -- it's the economy, stupid," says Franz-Josef Meiers, a political scientist with the German Society for Foreign Affairs.

But the campaign has centered on the contrasting styles,

personalities and careers of the two major contenders.

"In one way, they are very similar -- they are aware how important power is," says Juergen Leinemann, a Kohl biographer who covers politics for Germany's major news weekly, Der Spiegel. "They're not ashamed of wanting that power. That's very unusual in Germany after Hitler. Other leaders talk of responsibility. But Kohl and Schroeder know politics and policy need a power center."

Kohl, born April 3, 1930, was a child of Nazi Germany. Too young to serve but not too young to observe, Kohl was touched and molded by the war. He cleared rubble, mourned the death of his older brother, Walter, who was killed in an air raid, and saw a vanquished nation come to terms with the evil it had unleashed across a continent.

After the war, Kohl grew interested in politics and followed the footsteps of his father, who was a Christian Democratic leader in their home city of Ludwigshafen. Kohl became the quintessential young man in a hurry, studying law, political science and history. He filled a series of political posts, rising quickly in the ranks to chair the party, and finally becoming, in 1982 at age 52, Germany's youngest chancellor.

Self-made man

Schroeder comes from different stock, a self-made man who never knew his father, worked in a china shop at 14, got a night school degree and dabbled in left-wing politics before moving to the center.

He was born April 7, 1944, in Mossenberg, three days before his father, an army conscript, was killed in Romania. Schroeder and four siblings lived in a makeshift hut at the edge of a soccer field where they were raised by their mother, Erica Vosseler, who earned a living by cleaning houses and British Army barracks.

Schroeder paid his way through law school from what he earned working on building sites. Instilled with a left-wing radicalism from the 1960s and 1970s, he became a lawyer who specialized in civil rights cases.

Yet he always had his eye on political prizes within the Social Democratic Party, and headed its youth wing in 1978. He climbed high and fast, getting elected to the Bundestag, the lower house of Germany's parliament, in 1980.

Legend has it has it that on that day he went and rattled the gates of the German chancellery, shouting: "I want in here."

Eighteen years later, he is nearing his goal, positioning himself as a moderate who can court big business. Not even his four marriages have put off the voters, although the Christian Democrats handed out T-shirts with the slogan, "Three Women Can't Be Wrong."

The country Schroeder is seeking to run is in many ways built in Kohl's image.

And while Schroeder may chide Kohl's record on the economy, he privately has a great respect for a powerful political figure.

Last of the giants

Kohl is the last of Europe's 20th century giants, politicians of vision who struggled to create a new order from the wreckage of two world wars. He presided over Germany at its finest postwar hour, the reunification of the democratic West with the Communist East after the 1989 collapse of the Berlin Wall.

It was Kohl's shrewd bargaining with Soviet leader Mikhail S. Gorbachev that brought about the swift reunification and provided one of the final chapters of the Cold War.

But Kohl realized that a unified Germany would be considered a threat by neighbors twice devastated by German onslaughts in this century. So, he sought to cement Germany's relationship with the European Union and spearheaded the goal of a single European currency.

A continent often divided by war would be united by cash. Under Kohl, Germany is preparing to give up its mark, symbol of stability, for the euro, the coin for a peaceful, united Europe.

But for the voters, unification is a project of the past. They appear concerned with the present state of the German economy.

Germany is still Europe's economic engine. But the army of unemployed is disgruntled. Many now view Kohl as yesterday's man, unable or unwilling to solve the economic malaise or to come to grips with the problems in eastern Germany, where unemployment is twice as high as in the west.

"After 16 years, the party is over," Meiers says. "Kohl promised quite a lot."

This included Kohl's famous promise of "flourishing landscapes" for eastern Germany, a statement, Meiers says, that was "a promise he could never keep."

Schroeder hammers home the same theme.

But Schroeder must also convince the voters that he has a coherent plan to reinvigorate the economy.

In image, at least, the Social Democrats are a modern party and proclaim themselves as "the New Center." But in practice, people are unsure if the party has shed its past as a hotbed for left-wing socialism.

Doesn't head party

Unlike British Prime Minister Tony Blair, who cleaned house and redirected the Labor Party before knocking off the Conservative's 18-year hold on power, Schroeder does not control the levers of power in his party. Instead, power is exerted by the party chairman, Oskar Lafontaine, whom many regard as far to the left.

For now, Schroeder speaks of creating a "society with inner justice."

"What is the power of the German economy?" Schroeder demands. The answer, he says, is the people, with wealth spread throughout the society. "The real force does not come from a few thousand millionaires, but from millions of working people," he says.

But many voters are reluctant to turn against Kohl. "An old marriage can be better than a new one," said Norbert Bluem, the government's labor minister. "Why risk something new? Sixteen years with Kohl should be continued. Sixteen weeks with Schroeder is too much."

Germany's fickle voters and a multiparty system could transform a cliffhanger into a free-for-all of back-room dealing by the politicians after the votes are cast tomorrow.

If neither party wins an outright majority, there is the possibility that a "grand coalition," could be established between the Social Democrats and Christian Democrats. The party that picks up the most seats in the German parliament would head the coalition.

Schroeder would gladly lead such a coalition. But not Kohl. He would likely step aside in favor of his parliamentary leader, Wolfgang Schaeuble.

Still, Kohl is fighting hard for one last win. He ignores the polls and trudges on. As he reminds voters, the election "is important. It takes you to a new century."

Pub Date: 9/26/98

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