Their numbers are dwindling.

As the 46th annual Maryland Association of Realtors Conference returns this week to Ocean City -- after two years in Atlantic City, N.J. -- Realtors may be noticing that their association is becoming a leaner outfit.

According to MAR statistics, membership has dropped significantly, from about 29,000 at the beginning of the decade to less than 17,000, a drop of approximately 40 percent.

That drop mirrors the overall decline in state licensees in the real estate field.

The number of licensed agents and brokers in the state has swooned from a high of 59,150 on April 30, 1990, to 29,994 just eight years later, according to Elizabeth Beggs, executive director of the Maryland Real Estate Commission.

"I always bring this topic up when I'm talking to people who have come in to interview with me, who are thinking about becoming a Realtor or who have maybe already signed up for the licensing class," said William F. Cassidy, manager of the Fells Point office for Long & Foster Real Estate Inc. "And I point out to them that we are a dwindling population, and their reaction is usually, 'Why?' And my answer is usually one word: 'technology.' "

But the answer is more than just technology. Other words used to explain the decline include: recession, cost, education, complexity.

"1990 was the first year that we started going south, and we have gone that way ever since," said John Evans, outgoing president of the MAR and a principal at O'Conor, Piper & Flynn-ERA. "Now, we are hoping that it might change next year. But the national association and the Maryland association and ,, other associations are budgeting on it not going back into the plus channel in 1999."

Membership levels, according to the National Association of Realtors, had been more than 800,000 in the late 1980s, only to drop to 700,000 last year. But according to Jeff Lubar, spokesman for the NAR, membership this year has rebounded to approximately 720,000.

With dwindling memberships comes dwindling revenue. And has the impact been felt?

"Of course it has. Unquestionably it has," said Mary Antoun, executive vice president of the MAR. "Like most professional organizations, we are largely dues dependent, so of course it has had an effect on us. But like most professional, nonprofit organizations, we have for a long time looked to other sources for revenue.

"But we've made changes on how we want to put our emphasis. Five years ago we had more members, but we also had a black-and-white newsletter. Now we have fewer members, and we do a [full-color] magazine."

Evans pointed to the recessions of the early 1990s as a period that shook out many of the Realtors who had come into the business during the last real estate boom in the late 1980s.

"A lot of people who had just started in the business and who needed the income couldn't make it, so they weren't able to stay," Evans said.

"And some of those people who were not top performers that were more part time in the industry may have left. That is what we have seen."

Although the MAR does not keep statistics on the number of part-time sales people, the National Association of Realtors in a 1996 survey -- its most recent -- reported that 27 percent worked part time. That is 12 percentage points less than a high of 39 percent in its 1984 survey.

"Typically, when we have a run of good times we will see people coming in," Evans added. "When you have tough times, unfortunately some people who can be very, very good, cannot afford to stay with it because it takes too long to get going."

Evans also pointed to the change made two years ago by the Real Estate Commission that doubled the number of in-class hours -- from 45 to 90 -- that were required before taking the licensing exam. However, in the last General Assembly session, the requirement was trimmed to 60 hours, beginning Oct. 1.

That change, Evans says, cut down the flow of agents to the field. According to statistics released by the Real Estate Commission, the number of agent applicants who sat for the exam in 1996, when the 45-hour requirement was in effect, was 9,278 -- a number inflated by the impending higher classroom requirement.

In 1997, under the 90-hour requirement, the number of applicants dropped to 4,744. In 1998, it rose to 5,452.

The learning curve of the ever-increasing amount of technology that supports the real estate business also has had its effect on membership. Older Realtors, frustrated with the newer levels of expertise required to run software, are waving the white flag and leaving the business.

"I started 22 years ago, and 22 years ago all of this technology didn't exist," Cassidy said.

"Now 20 years later, [for] some of us old-timers, it has been a turn-off. We didn't count on this when we started our real estate careers. We expected it to be much more dependent on our social contact, and now it has swung to how we market ourselves on the Internet.

"I just say that is a major consideration that has caused the old-timers to leave the business sooner than what they counted on."

And with the technology comes the financial cost of doing business.

"Nowadays it is virtually impossible to be a professional without buying a computer and investing in computer-related equipment. That is just a fact of life, and that wasn't true for us 10 years ago," Antoun said. "[Now] you would be hard pressed to find a Realtor who didn't have a computer, a pager, a cell phone, a personal fax, an e-mail address."

Cassidy said when he came into the business, start-up costs would be less than $500; now he estimates the figure to be around $2,400.

But beside the technology and cost, Cassidy also said the complexity of the business in the last few years has squeezed out agents.

"Twenty-two years ago, you could put together a contract of sale on a property using one side of a legal-size sheet of paper," Cassidy said. "Now, it would be 8 1/2 -by-11, done on a computer, but it would be at least 25 pages. And all the increase in pages is directly related to all the disclosures, disclaimers, buyer agency, lead paint forms that didn't exist 22 years ago.

"Now, couple that with the technology that has to be learned, and they suddenly felt that 'I'm in over my head.' They didn't count on this paper explosion."

Said Evans: "It is much more competitive. Much more demanding. The consumer is much more demanding. And our responsibilities as service providers to the consumers are much more intense. I think that has eliminated those people who are in it to sort of dabble, make some extra money and have fun."

Antoun, however, isn't alarmed by the downward trend and predicts at least a "flattening" out of membership levels. But she also see a profession in transition.

"While we can't attribute [membership loss] to any one thing, we know at least intuitively, if not mathematically, that all of those things have to be a factor," she said.

"Real estate, like all other industries, is reformulating itself. It is a different era, and the way we do what we do is different."

Pub Date: 9/13/98