As the bond market stabilized after Friday's sharp selloff, stocks moved moderately higher yesterday. The Dow Jones industrial average advanced 22.47 points and closed at 4,446.46, now up 612 points, or 16 percent, in 5 1/2 months. Will stocks remain at this high level? For a look back and ahead, read on.
HISTORY LESSON: "Stocks are on a permanently high plateau. I expect to see the stock market a good deal higher within a few months." (Professor Irving Fisher, Yale University, on Oct. 19, 1929, a few days before the Wall Street crash that set off the Great Depression.)
LESSON LEARNED? "I see the Dow Jones industrial average at 5,000 late this year or early in 1996." (Edward Yardeni, economist.)
"A record low 2.6 percent dividend yield on the S&P; 500 doesn't matter. It's different this time." (William Dodge, Dean Witter Reynolds.)
"The amazing ride isn't over yet. 'Fair value' on the Dow is roughly 5,000. It's onward and upward." (Business Week's June 19 cover story, "Special Midyear Outlook: Where To Invest.")
SOBERING UP: "When you're 52 and have been at this game 28 years, you don't believe in the tooth fairy or 'soft landings.' I'm still skeptical." (Leon Cooperman, hedge-fund manager, in this week's Barron's.)
"We have benefited from the most extraordinary bull market in the last five years. It can't get much better." (Quantitative Market Strategy.)
HOPEFULLY HELPFUL: "When you leave a job, make sure your former employer rolls every last cent of your retirement money directly into an IRA." (Marlys Harris, financial writer.)
"Do you make enough money? Not likely. With today's cost of housing, college and retirement, even people with fat salaries just scrape by." (Fortune, June 26, in its cover story, "Unless You Earn Four Times Your Age, You're Probably Not Paid Enough.")
"The surest way to afford tomorrow's college costs is to start investing today. Aim for long-term gains with stocks." (Money, June.)
LOCAL HONOR ROLL: The cover story of Black Enterprise, June, "The Nation's 100 Largest Black Businesses," lists these "Industrial Service" Maryland firms: Stop, Shop & Save, Baltimore; Sylvest Management Services, Lanham; Community Foods Inc. T/A Superpride Markets, Baltimore; R.O.W. Sciences, Rockville; Maxima Corp, Lanham; Washington Cable Supply, Lanham; Texcom, Landover; Red River Shipping, Rockville; Parks Sausage, Baltimore. (More categories coming Thursday.)
BALTIMORE BITS: Black & Decker is listed under "Foreign Operations Doing Well: Companies With Large Foreign Sales" in the same S&P; Outlook.
T. Rowe Price Small Cap Value Fund appears under "Buy Recommendations" in Mutual Fund Forecaster, June 6.
"Provident Bank, Baltimore, Md.," is named under "The Best Bank in Every State" in Money magazine, June, with "Free checking, 6.4 percent one-year CD."
MARYLAND MEMOS: "Sun Stocks" reaching 12-month highs in recent trading include Aegon Insurance, Alex. Brown (up seven points last week, or 17 percent, on merger rumors), American National and York International.
U.S. Surgical, widely held here, is listed under "Falling Stars" in the S&P; Outlook, June 7. ("Although earnings should improve, this firm is being hurt by competition from Johnson & Johnson.")
MONEY-SAVER: As promised on WBAL Radio and TV, here are names of independent check printers from whom you might save money vs. buying checks from your bank: Checks in the Mail (800-733-4443); Current Check Printers (800-533-3973); Custom Direct Check Printers (800-272-5432); The Check Store (800-424-3257). Data from Woman's Day, June 6.
LAST LINES: "Don't be a market timer. Of all the mistakes people make, that's the worst." (Tony Gray in his new book, "1,000 Miles from Wall Street," interviewed on CNN's "Moneyline.")
"Last year, for the first time, personal computers outsold TV sets in the U.S." (Washington Week in Review, PBS-TV.)
"Some pizza places sell 'mistake' or unclaimed pizzas at or below half-price, where you can often buy a large pizza for $2 or $3. Ask at your favorite place." (Tightwad Gazette.)
Last Call: Your second quarter estimated Federal and Maryland income tax payments must be postmarked by midnight the day after tomorrow. (June 15.)
Commenting on the possible closure of Fort McHenry as a tourist attraction, WBAL Radio's Alan Walden told me, "The National Park Service budget cost taxpayers only 99 cents of every $1,000, a tiny sum to maintain and operate 367 national parks and monuments."
McCormick & Co. is written up favorably in "The Patient Investor." ("We are encouraged by recent earnings reports in difficult times for food companies. The firm recently secured two major retail accounts. The stock remains an attractive holding.")
There's good reading in the new [July] Kiplinger's Personal Finance Magazine, on newsstands this week. The issue discusses "The Overselling of Variable Annuities," "How Credit Card Crooks Will Get Your Card" and "Timely Picks For Your Portfolio." We will have excerpts in upcoming columns.
Sad Note: One week from tomorrow marks the year's longest day. From then on, evenings begin to darken earlier.