In a detailed study of slayings in Maryland, researchers confirmed that the state's recent wave of homicides was caused by a volatile mix of youth, drugs and handguns -- and contradicted some common misconceptions about the slaughter.
The recent homicide rate is "likely" to be leveling off, said University of Maryland Professor David McDowall, a criminologist and one of the study's authors. But the region may never return to levels typical of the early 1980s, before crack cocaine and high-powered handguns boosted its homicide rate about 50 percent.
"It sort of changes the climate in an area," he said. "Lots of people carry guns, whether they're involved in selling drugs directly or not." And the likelihood that disagreements will escalate into murder will remain high.
Among the study's findings:
* While the drug trade triggers violence, victims and offenders are usually not under the influence of drugs at the time of slayings.
* Two-thirds of homicides in Prince George's County were drug-related. "It was surprising that drugs were involved in such a large fraction of homicides," Dr. McDowall said.
* Homicides have become harder to investigate and solve. Baltimore police were unable to describe the relationship between victims and their killers in only 57 cases in 1990, the study found. By 1993, that figure had grown by 82 percent, to 104 cases.
* Drug-related homicides are more than twice as likely to be committed with a handgun as other killings.
The report, prepared by the three-member Violence Research Group, found that -- contrary to the stereotype -- few slayings result from addicts robbing law-abiding citizens for cash to buy drugs. Police say many of Baltimore's homicides are committed by armed thugs preying on drug dealers.
"There are some people whose full-time job is robbing drug dealers. They know drug dealers have money, and they know the dealers don't report the thefts to police," said Baltimore Police Col. Ronald L. Daniel, chief of the criminal investigation bureau.
Though the number of Baltimore homicides declined last year, to 321 from a 1993 record of 353, the homicide rate remains at near-record levels -- an estimated 46 per 100,000 residents. That compares with an average of about 30 per 100,000 residents through the mid-1980s.
Dr. McDowall said the jump in slayings parallels the spread of crack-cocaine that began in the mid-1980s. That wave devastated some cities, but left others relatively unscathed.
"It's a peculiar thing," he said. "Some cities like Chicago report very little in terms of a crack epidemic. But some cities, like the District of Columbia and Baltimore, have had major problems."
Police statistics say about half of Baltimore's homicides are drug-related. But researchers suspect this figure is really much higher.
Colonel Daniel said the introduction of crack cocaine in 1985 combined with a poorly organized drug distribution network caused the homicide numbers to swell.
"More of the blame goes to younger people running their own drug organizations," the colonel said.
Baltimore and Prince George's typically account for nearly 80 percent of the state's murders. The wave of handgun killings in both areas helped send the state's overall murder and non-negligent manslaughter rate up by almost 50 percent -- from 8.1 per 100,000 residents in 1984 to 12.1 in 1992.
On Friday, the State Police released 1994 figures showing that murders statewide dropped 8 percent, from 632 to 580.
From 1990 to 1993, the study found, the number of Baltimore homicides committed with handguns soared from 206 to 264, while the number involving knives declined, from 57 to 43. From 1986 to 1992 in Prince George's County, the number of homicides committed with handguns soared from under 30 to 104.