Orioles owner Peter Angelos said yesterday that he is confident the baseball labor dispute will be settled within two weeks, but added that his opinion is based on faith that both sides will see the wisdom of working out their differences before the 1995 season is damaged.
Angelos, who made his surprisingly optimistic assessment on Channel 2 yesterday, said later that he has reason to believe the players and owners will resume negotiations within the framework recommended by special mediator William J. Usery.
"I think that the two sides are closer than they realize," Angelos said. "I think you have a framework now. Bill Usery has agreed to stay on -- which I think is critical. I think if the two sides get together and look at this as a starting point, this thing can be worked out in two weeks."
It depends a lot on whether the Major League Baseball Players Association is willing to take the Usery framework and use it to construct a more player-friendly proposal.
The owners already have said they would accept Usery's recommendations, which call for a 50 percent excess payroll tax and give players unrestricted free agency after four years' service beginning in 1996. The players consider it terribly one-sided, but there is nothing keeping them from coming back with a modified version to jump-start negotiations.
"Let's go forward," said Angelos. "I think a compromise is attainable. I believe that, and it's not just a guess."
The next two weeks are critical, but only because earlier do-or-die deadlines passed without progress. Spring training begins Friday, and the exhibition season is scheduled to start 12 days later. If an agreement can be reached in two weeks, the owners could open the exhibition season with minor-leaguers while the major-league players work their way into shape. The season likely would start on time.
Of course, there is little -- other than Angelos' upbeat attitude -- to indicate that any meaningful negotiations will take place soon. Union head Donald Fehr and acting commissioner Bud Selig are scheduled to testify at antitrust hearings in Washington on Wednesday, then Fehr will head for Florida and Arizona for meetings with players.
Unless Usery can do something to speed the process, that would keep the players occupied for more than a week and carry the stalemate into spring training. Clubs will open camps with replacement players (except the Orioles), which figures to raise the level of animosity again.
The owners appear ready to go forward with the replacement scheme, which is certain to be viewed by the players as a union-busting tactic. Angelos has been assured that there will be a formal vote of the 28 clubs on the replacement issue, but it may not come until the quarterly owners meeting March 7-9 in Palm Beach, Fla.
The Orioles have resisted the call to field a replacement team, which could set up the franchise for heavy fines and its owner for a possible suspension.
While Angelos hopefully looks forward to a settlement in the next two weeks, that is also a critical time frame for his club, which will have to decide soon whether to boycott exhibition games or play them with nonroster minor-leaguers.