The news that Baltimore City's population is likely to dip below 700,000 this year for the first time since World War I is shocking but not unexpected. The downward trend has been clear for decades, even though some post-World War II estimates optimistically predicted the city's population would exceed one million residents. Yet there is a new twist in the latest U.S. Census Bureau figures.
They confirm that what in the past was largely a white flight from the city has now become a black middle-class exodus. That a trickle has grown into a torrent under Baltimore's first elected African-American mayor suggests two things: 1) black families are motivated by the same desires as white families for safety, good education and a variety of shopping choices, and 2) black families, like their white counterparts, have serious questions about the city's future.
These observations apply to most of the East Coast's major cities. As the scramble to the suburbs continues, only big West Coast and Sun Belt cities tend to be growing, partly because they have been able to annex their suburbs. It is no accident that when Baltimore soon loses its status as the 14th largest U.S. dTC city, it will be to Jacksonville, the rapidly growing Florida residential and commercial hub (that coincidentally beat Baltimore out for a new football team.)
It is tempting to blame Mayor Kurt L. Schmoke for this continuing hemorrhaging on his watch. The fact is, however, that Baltimore lost even more population under the stewardship of William Donald Schaefer, whom no one could accuse of a lack of boosterism. City residents, it seems, were perfectly willing to mouth Schaeferesque slogans such as "Baltimore is best," all the while contemplating a move to the counties.
The Schmoke administration contends that the Census Bureau figures reflect a pattern of under-count. The federal figures are indeed estimates but they chart a continuing and alarming trend. Fewer taxpayers mean a smaller tax base, a probable loss of jobs and a shrinking market that is less attractive to retailers. Already, many city residents have to go to the surrounding jurisdictions if they want to find a department store or other big chain retailer.
Rather than trying to dispute the Census figures, Mr. Schmoke ought to do whatever he can to promote Baltimore to prospective homebuyers. The city has done some of this but not nearly enough. The latest population estimates also make it imperative for the city to find ways to decrease its property tax rate and win reductions in the unconscionably high automobile insurance rates that constitute an added penalty on urban living.