After rushing to join the competitive fray at BWI, several small carriers have been forced to abandon service there, and larger airlines are carefully scrutinizing whether flights are making enough money.
While there has been a recent flurry of cutbacks, the impact thus far has been minimal, as major airlines fill in the gaps with more flights. But more cuts by big carriers, like USAir and Continental, could alter the picture.
"I'd be surprised to see wholesale cutbacks, provided passenger demand is there," said Alex C. Hart, an airline analyst for Ferris, Baker Watts Inc. in Baltimore. "But airlines are being more rational about routes."
"USAir has said it will have less planes, less people, so they're going to have to look long and hard at their routes," he said.
The latest small carrier to bail out at BWI is MarkAir, an Anchorage, Alaska-based carrier that began flying from BWI to Cincinnati and Denver on Jan. 1. The airline said yesterday that it will cease service from BWI on March 31.
Last month, Air South canceled its daily service from BWI to Raleigh-Durham, N.C.; Columbia, S.C.; and Atlanta, after only six weeks' operation. And American Trans Air, an Indianapolis carrier, scrapped its twice-a-week, regularly scheduled service to Fort Lauderdale, Fla., in January.
In addition, Adventure Tours, a Baltimore travel agency and tour operator, recently discontinued the charter service it was offering on American Trans Air to the Bahamas, Orlando and Las Vegas.
L In every case, the reason was simple: not enough passengers.
Still, officials at BWI say there's no glut of flights, and small carriers will not be discouraged from coming there in the future.
"We're not seeing a saturation of discount service at BWI," said Jay Hierholzer, associate administrator for marketing and development. "The market is still responding very strongly to low fares and high frequency service, and we'll probably see others come in."
Once-tranquil BWI has became a frenzied center of competition over the past 18 months, as discount carriers have moved in and major airlines have cut their fares and added flights to meet the challenge. But there are clear signs the growth is slowing. After growing by more than 2 million passengers in 1994, traffic at the state-owned BWI is expected to increase only slightly this year. Officials are predicting the number will grow from 12.5 million to 12.8 million.
The 350 daily departures, however, has remained fairly constant during the past year. Even if more carriers sought to operate at BWI, gate space is extremely limited.
A crucial question for BWI is how restructuring by Continental Airlines and USAir, which together handle nearly 60 percent of the airport's traffic, will play out.
Launched in October 1993, Continental Lite copied Southwest Airlines' successful strategy of offering low-fare, short-haul service. But the Houston-based airline scheduled far too many flights into markets where the demand didn't justify the level of service.
As part of its systemwide efforts to fix that problem, Continental recently cut 10 of its 42 daily flights at BWI. And more cuts are expected by Labor Day.
So far this year, USAir, responding to competition from Southwest and Continental, has added flights at BWI. USAir's future decisions at BWI will hinge not only on its own cost-cutting efforts, but also on decisions by its competition there, particularly Continental.
"With this whole East Coast picture changing, it's very complex," said Richard Weintraub, a spokesman for USAir. "All routes are being evaluated in terms of whether they make money."
In the intensely competitive environment at BWI, small carriers such as Air South and MarkAir were hurt by infrequent service and their financial inability to advertise heavily in the Baltimore-Washington market.
While its fares were low, MarkAir offered only an early-morning flight to Cincinnati. Delta Air Lines, its main competitor on the route, offers three flights throughout the day.
"There were a lot people who didn't know we existed," said Lance Ross, a spokesman for MarkAir, which has operated primarily in Alaska for more than four decades.
By comparison, the highly successful Southwest Airlines advertised heavily for two months prior to its arrival at BWI in September 1993. When it started, Southwest offered frequent service to Chicago and Cleveland.
"The reason why the Southwests of the world make it is their high level of service and marketing," said Mr. Hierholzer.
Small carriers often discover they can use their small fleets better by shifting aircraft to less competitive markets.
And the recent experience of MarkAir and others lesser-known carriers could easily deter some airlines from coming here.
"BWI's pretty saturated," said Robert Kulat, a spokesman for KIWI International Air Lines in Newark, N.J. "They're all cutting each other's throats to see who can lose the most money first.