Baltimore's population has declined sharply since 1990 and likely will dip below 700,000 this year for the first time since World War I, according to new U.S. Census Bureau estimates.
The number of Baltimoreans dropped from 736,014 in April 1990 to an estimated 703,057 in July 1994 as thousands of city residents moved to the suburbs, especially Harford and Baltimore counties.
Baltimore City slipped from second to fourth in population among Maryland jurisdictions, dropping for the first time behind Baltimore County (711,783). The Washington suburbs of Montgomery (802,721) and Prince George's (764,053) counties ranked Nos. 1 and 2.
State planner Michel A. Lettre said the 1980s trend of a middle-class exodus of blacks and whites from the city appeared to have accelerated, especially since 1992.
"A trend like this can't continue indefinitely -- or you wouldn't have anyone left," said Mr. Lettre, assistant director of the Maryland Office of Planning. "What these numbers suggest is that we may end up in the city with the loss of the remaining middle class, leaving only people of high income and people in poverty."
The counties surrounding Baltimore all grew. The older suburbs, Anne Arundel and Baltimore counties, showed moderate growth while the populations of the outer-tier counties -- Carroll, Harford and Howard -- all increased by 10 percent or more.
Baltimore's population shift had three main components. The number of people leaving exceeded those moving to the city, creating a loss of 53,000. More people were born than died, for a gain of 17,000. Finally, more than 3,000 immigrants moved to the city from abroad. That resulted in a net loss of about 33,000.
Just more than a year ago, state planners projected that Baltimore's population would be nearly 720,000 this year and would not go below 700,000 until 2010.
Del. James W. Campbell, a North Baltimore Democrat, said he was "stunned" by the Census Bureau estimates. He attributed the city's population loss to residents' concerns about crime, public schools and the property tax rate (which, at $5.85 per $100 of assessed value, is by far the highest in the state).
Mayor Kurt L. Schmoke said through a spokesman that he had asked the city's planning director to assess the accuracy of the Census Bureau estimates. He noted that the bureau's own estimates showed an undercount of Baltimore's population in the 1990 census.
Clinton R. Coleman, the mayor's spokesman, said Mr. Schmoke was addressing the problems that make people leave the city.
"We're making progress toward safer communities, better schools, slowly but surely bringing down the city's historically high taxes, and we're starting to tackle high auto insurance rates," he said.
City Council President Mary Pat Clarke, who is challenging Mr. Schmoke in this year's Democratic primary, said the population loss showed that "people have bought into the false premise there's nothing we can do. . . . A lot of people have said, 'Very nice mayor, very nice person -- bye!'
"We have to wake up and face the losses, and begin to stop the flow of jobs and people."
She called for better "nuts-and-bolts management of city services from safety to sanitation."
Mr. Campbell sponsored state legislation last year that authorizes the city to offer property tax breaks for residents who buy new housing in Baltimore. A city ordinance that offers such an incentive awaits Mr. Schmoke's approval, he said.
"Some people like city life. If the city tries to come up with a middle-class strategy, we might be able to bring that group in," he said.
Baltimore's population has steadily declined since 1950, when it peaked at almost 950,000. The sharpest drop came during the 1970s, when it decreased by 13 percent, from 906,000 to 787,000.
The Census Bureau estimates are based on analysis of birth and death statistics, income tax returns and immigration data. They do not include information on the income or race of families that move.
Elsewhere in Maryland, where the population topped 5 million last year, the fastest growth from 1990 to 1994 was in outlying suburbs of Calvert, Frederick and Howard counties.
The Baltimore metropolitan area still accounted for almost one in two Marylanders. But its 3.2 percent growth rate for 1990-1994 was lower than any other region except Western Maryland (2.4 percent).
Southern Maryland (10.2 percent), the Upper Shore (6.5 percent) and suburban Washington (6.3 percent) were the state's growth areas. The Washington suburbs (Frederick, Montgomery and Prince George's counties) accounted for almost half of the state's population growth of 225,512.
Worcester County, including Ocean City, grew by 11.4 percent.
But Mr. Lettre cautioned that the figures may overstate its growth. He said tax filers with second homes in Worcester may have established residence there to take advantage of lower local income tax rates.
Thousands of Montgomery and Prince George's residents moved to new subdivisions in surrounding counties. But high birth rates and an influx of immigrants more than made up for the losses.
More than 26,000 immigrants moved to Montgomery alone in 1990-1994, accounting for nearly half the 54,000 estimated to have come to Maryland.
In the Baltimore area, Baltimore County attracted the most immigrants (5,700), followed by the city (3,100), Howard (2,150) and Anne Arundel (1,800) counties.
Population estimates for Maryland
Montgomery County
April 1990 -- 764,053
July 1994 -- 802,721
% Change Since April 1990 -- +6.0%
Prince George's County
April 1990 -- 728,553
July 1994 -- 764,053
% Change Since April 1990 -- +4.9%
Baltimore County
April 1990 -- 692,134
July 1994 -- 711,783
% Change Since April 1990 -- +2.8%
Baltimore City
April 1990 -- 736,014
July 1994 -- 703,057
% Change Since April 1990 -- -4.5%
Anne Arundel County
April 1990 -- 427,239
July 1994 -- 456,171
% Change Since April 1990 -- +6.8%
Howard County
April 1990 -- 187,328
July 1994 -- 212,976
% Change Since April 1990 -- +13.7%
Harford County
April 1990 -- 182,132
July 1994 -- 201,985
% Change Since April 1990 -- +10.9%
Frederick County
April 1990 -- 150,208
July 1994 -- 171,274
% Change Since April 1990 -- +14.0%
Carroll County
April 1990 -- 123,372
July 1994 -- 136,443
% Change Since April 1990 -- +10.6%
Washington County
April 1990 -- 121,393
July 1994 -- 126,599
% Change Since April 1990 -- +4.3%
Charles County
April 1990 -- 101,154
July 1994 -- 109,295
% Change Since April 1990 -- +8.0%
St. Mary's County
April 1990 -- 75,974
July 1994 -- 80,323
% Change Since April 1990 -- +5.7%
Wicomico County
April 1990 -- 74,339
July 1994 -- 78,473
% Change Since April 1990 -- +5.6%
Cecil County
April 1990 -- 71,347
July 1994 -- 77,037
% Change Since April 1990 -- +8.0%
Allegany County
April 1990 -- 74,946
July 1994 -- 73,866
% Change Since April 1990 -- -1.4%
Calvert County
April 1990 -- 51,372
July 1994 -- 62,179
% Change Since April 1990 -- +21.0%
Worcester County
April 1990 -- 35,028
July 1994 -- 39,015
% Change Since April 1990 -- +11.4%
Queen Anne's County
April 1990 -- 33,953
July 1994 -- 36,070
% Change Since April 1990 -- +6.2%
Talbot County
April 1990 -- 30,549
July 1994 -- 32,015
% Change Since April 1990 -- +4.8%
Dorchester County
April 1990 -- 30,236
July 1994 -- 30,424
% Change Since April 1990 -- +0.6%
Garrett County
April 1990 -- 28,138
July 1994 -- 29,372
% Change Since April 1990 -- +4.4%
Caroline County
April 1990 -- 27,035
July 1994 -- 28,720
% Change Since April 1990 -- +6.2%
Somerset County
April 1990 -- 23,440
July 1994 -- 23,727
% Change Since April 1990 -- +1.2%
Kent County
April 1990 -- 17,842
July 1994 -- 18,687
% Change Since April 1990 -- +4.7%
MARYLAND
April 1990 -- 4,780,753
July 1994 -- 5,006,265
% Change Since April 1990 -- +4.7%