Baltimore's merchants are as much in suspense as Orioles fans over late-inning moves by players and owners in a strike that could do major harm to the local economy.
Jill Oliver summed up the impact of the baseball strike on her family's business in 11 words.
"On Aug. 11th we were packed," said Ms. Oliver, who manages the Wharf Rat pub, down Pratt Street from Oriole Park at Camden Yards. "On Aug. 12th we weren't."
Simple and not too sweet. So are the prospects for 1995, say people whose business depends on the Orioles -- the real Orioles, that is.
If they play, business for radio stations, TV broadcasters, hot dog wholesalers and the like will return to normal. But if they don't -- or replacement players are used despite owner Peter Angelos' vow not to -- all bets are off.
"Who . . . wants to listen to games with Joe the plumber playing first and Bill the deliveryman playing second?" said Jeff Beauchamp, vice president and station manager of WBAL (1090 AM), flagship station of the Orioles radio network. "Who cares?"
The city's economic losses from a continued strike likely would exceed $100 million.
The six lost weeks of play in 1994 cost Baltimore about $80 million in lost tourism and related spending, said Anirban Basu, an economist at the University of Baltimore's Regional Economic Studies Program. The figure does not count dollars that local fans would have spent.
"This year the impact would be much greater," Mr. Basu said.
The business most affected is The Orioles Inc. The strike cost the team $13 million to $15 million in 1994, said Joseph E. Foss, vice chairman/finance of the Orioles.
This year, $93 million in team revenue is at stake: Topping the list are $50 million in ticket sales, about $18 million in television and radio rights fees, $14 million from concessions and parking, $6 million in skybox and club seat license fees, and $5.5 million in stadium advertising.
Also at risk is the money 3.6 million fans would spend at places like Harborplace and the Wharf Rat before and after 81 home games, the $300,000 a year the University of Maryland makes from game-related business at its Baltimore campus parking garages, and much more.
The baseball players and owners remained unable to reach an agreement yesterday, prompting federal mediator W. J. Usery to confer with White House aides last night.
Mr. Usery is expected to propose terms of a settlement to President Clinton today, the president's deadline for a players-owners agreement. Mr. Clinton could seek legislation to impose a settlement.
BIn the meantime, the situation in Baltimore boils down to this: So much money, so little idea what is going on.
Marcellus Alexander, WJZ-TV general manager, said only about 20 percent of the station's ads on its 35 Orioles telecasts are sold. Home Team Sports would say only that ad sales on its 90 cable broadcasts, and the ads it controls during games broadcast on WJZ and WNUV-TV (Channel 54), are running behind last year's pace.
On the radio, WBAL says 75 percent of its ads are sold, but says its advertising would normally be 90 percent sold by now. WTOP (1500 AM) in Washington says it has sold only about 30 percent of the Orioles broadcast ads it would normally sell by Opening Day -- 50 percent by Feb. 1 is normal.
Even the ads that are sold aren't assured.
"My belief is that basically every client that has been involved in baseball advertising is building in some kind of out-clause that lets them see what happens," said Dave Robinson, media director at Baltimore advertising agency W. B. Doner & Co. "It certainly seems overwhelmingly in this market that the public does not want to see replacement baseball and would not support it."
"We have some advertisers who said it would be like crossing a picket line," WBAL sales manager Larry Doyle said.
Alan Abramson, president of Archway Ford, said the Baltimore Area Ford Dealers Association will continue its Orioles radio advertising if the strike is settled. But the association will reconsider if replacement players take the field, he said.
"I'm not sure to what extent we would want to participate," he said. "The product would certainly have to be repriced."
The Orioles and broadcast partners WBAL and Group W Television Inc., the Westinghouse Electric Co. unit that owns both WJZ-TV (Channel 13) and Home Team Sports, say they are planning as if the strike will end.
Jody Shapiro, Home Team Sports vice president for programming, said HTS will add more tennis, soccer and minor-league baseball if the strike drags on and the Orioles don't field a team of replacement players.
"We're getting to be veterans of it," he added. "We've lived since mid-August with making schedules and finding alternative programming."
Michael Easterling, Channel 13's programming director, said WJZ will fill gaps left by canceled Orioles games with network programming, or with its own inventory.
Mostly, the station wants to rotate sponsors into other sports shows, but that could be tough. After the 1994 season was interrupted, Channel 13, then affiliated with the American Broadcasting Corp., was able to provide sponsors with ads during college and pro football games.
Channel 13 is now affiliated with CBS Inc. CBS Sports' inventory includes college basketball, golf and the U.S. Open tennis tournament, not nearly as attractive as football.
It is not even certain that the Orioles' TV and radio networks would be bound to carry replacement games if the team plays them. An American League attorney met with Mr. Angelos last month to warn him of possible sanctions, including revocation of the team's franchise, if he did not follow other teams and field a replacement squad.
WJZ's Mr. Alexander said the issue of whether the contract forces the station to carry the replacement games is "subject to interpretation."
WBAL's Mr. Beauchamp admitted that if the Orioles were forced to play replacement players, the station would have "an interesting dilemma." The station's contract calls for WBAL to carry any games sanctioned by the American League.
Mr. Beauchamp said WBAL would consult with Mr. Angelos about a course of action.
"We haven't developed a stance because, we are not intending to put replacement players on the field," the Orioles' Mr. Foss said.
Radio stations in Toronto and San Diego have said they will not broadcast replacement ball, and stations in New York have said they are investigating whether their contracts allow them to refuse as well.
The strike's business effects go beyond broadcasting, especially because Oriole Park at Camden Yards' downtown location was calculated to maximize baseball's impact.
"Baseball means 3 million people coming downtown," said Joan Davidson, group manager for sales and marketing at Harborplace and The Gallery, the Rouse Co.'s two harbor retail centers. "It enlivens downtown in every possible way."
One obvious beneficiary has been eating and drinking establishments. Ms. Oliver said the Balls sports bar next to the Wharf Rat cuts back the number of days it is open when baseball is out of season, and several restaurants in the neighborhood either opened or expanded after stadium construction began.
Ms. Davidson said restaurants at Harborplace also suffered after the strike, but less than competitors a few blocks west because Harborplace is an attraction unto itself and is also closer to the National Aquarium.
The University of Baltimore's Mr. Basu said the losses to tourism are especially critical.
"It's one of Baltimore's stronger export industries," he said. "It brings in money from the outside. That's why [economic development officials] pursue tourism so much."
Pat Fragale, general manager of the Marriott Inner Harbor Hotel, across the street from Camden Yards, said occupancy rates normally in the 70 percent range fell 3 to 5 points in the months after the strike. "The stadium is a major contributor to occupancy during the season," he said.
A spokesman for the University of Maryland at Baltimore, few blocks north of the stadium, said the university loses more than money when the ballpark is dark because Camden Yards was the centerpiece of efforts to redevelop the west side of downtown.
"I think the ambience is much more important," university spokesman John Hachtel said. "This is a much nicer neighborhood when there's a ballgame. There may be parking problems when you come out of work at 6:30, but it's always festive. I don't know if you can put a dollar figure on that."