As indisputably brilliant as Franchise Sophomore Joe Smith is, he needs at least another year of physical and emotional growth, maybe two years, before he is ready to hit the NBA running as fast as he is running now.
But it doesn't matter.
He may have to turn pro after this season anyway, mainly because he has no choice.
Having no choice, in this case, is defined as being worth at least $45 million as one of the top three picks in the draft.
He'd be crazy to turn that down, even if he isn't quite ready yet. His value can't get much higher. It can only go down if he decides to continue his college career after this season. What if he sprains an ankle and his numbers decline? What if some other jumping-jack Amadeus comes along and supplants him? What if there is a rookie salary cap in the next labor agreement?
Until a few years ago, these kinds of decisions were simple. If you were an undergrad considering jumping to the NBA, either you were ready or you weren't. The vast majority weren't; for every Magic Johnson and Hakeem Olajuwon, there were three Jerrod Mustafs and Chris Washburns. But either way, players made their decisions based only on whether they believed they were ready to play in the NBA. It was, in other words, a basketball decision.
Today, that is no longer true. Whether Smith is ready doesn't really matter. The basketball factors in the equation are easily outweighed by economic factors. Such as, just how filthy rich are they going to make him?
It's not a bad position to be in, but it does back Smith into a corner and make for a wrenching, complicated decision that is almost too much for a 19-year-old.
What has changed in the past five years, of course, is that NBA salaries have gone from reasonably inflated to sky-high crazy, with most of the big money, illogically, being given to rookies who have yet to demonstrate they deserve it. No one says this makes sense, but there it is.
Smith will never have more earning power than he does now. And if the scouts continue to say what they're saying now, that he would probably be one of the top three picks in the '95 draft along with fellow sophomores Rasheed Wallace and Marcus Camby, he is looking at a rookie contract worth between $45 million and $70 million.
Even if Corliss Williamson, Lou Roe and Shawn Respert moved ahead of him and he was selected sixth, he'd make $30 million.
Any way you stack it, we're talking lots of jack for Joe.
The pros are sweet on him because he shapes up as a prototypical monster power forward. He is a big man with 15-foot shooting range. He is a tenacious rebounder and an inspired defender. His long arms frustrate opponents trying to block his shot. He doesn't say a word to the refs. He is completely unselfish. He can run. He practices hard. He gets better as the game progresses. In sum: fabulous game, fabulous attitude.
Yet he has enormous value not so much for what he can do now as for what he should be like in, say, five years, when he has gained 25 pounds and can utilize his talent after having learned the secrets of the pro lane. It isn't a stretch to envision him as one of the best players in the game.
Whether he is ready now to be a consistent force is another matter. He needs to gain those 25 pounds. It's a long leap from Junior Burrough to Karl Malone and from a 30-game season to eight months of helter-skelter, nonstop travel. Remember, Juwan Howard was too strong for him in the NCAA tournament last year. Smith competed hard, but he was running uphill all night. You can't do that every night in the NBA and get away with it.
And remember, Smith is just 19. He shouldn't have to make such a jump right now. He doesn't even have a ready-made NBA position yet. He is too slender to play power forward, and he hasn't developed his ball-handling skills to the point where he can play shooting forward.
But it doesn't matter. The pros don't care. They'll take him now, as is, and pencil him into their future.
As well they should. If all goes well, Smith is a Dream Teamer in the making.
Still, if he does go after this season, his next few years might not be easy. Fans today expect immediate results from players who sign huge contracts. Those who need more seasoning have to survive grumbling and criticism. Shawn Bradley is getting booed in Philadelphia.
But if Smith does go now, and he is smart with his money, he will never have to work another day in his life, regardless of how well or poorly he plays. Who can turn that down?
If he waits another year, he is taking a risk. The NBA players have no labor contract, and a cap on rookie salaries may be on the table when bargaining resumes. Smith won't have to worry about it if he goes this year, but after that . . .
Of course, it's a shame that all of this has to come into play. Smith is a humble kid who wants mostly just to be left alone, yet there are agents swarming around him and he has become a prisoner in his dorm. In the '80s, Len Bias was able to play in peace until his senior season. In the '90s, Smith is meat for the sharks before his 20th birthday. That stinks.
The happy ending for Terps fans would be Smith's eschewing the money and deciding to do the college thing all the way, stay in school, win a title, get his degree, etc. That appeals to him in some ways, no doubt. Is any kid in a hurry to abandon his youth?
If he did stay, the Terps could build a Duke-like dynasty. But is it wishful thinking to believe he might stay? Well, let's ask it this way: If someone offered you $50 million, would you turn it down?