THE FIRST of the 1996 presidential hopefuls came to the boardroom at 501 N. Calvert for the ritual pretense of liking editorial writers.
It was Sen. Arlen Specter, R-Pa., and I made his day. I told him, "I don't think much of your chances. [Pause for effect.] Which is exactly what I told Jimmy Carter in this building 20 years ago."
I have to say that I believe Senator Specter to be an even longer shot than Carter was.
For one thing, he's Jewish. America has never had a Jewish presidential nominee. Some say Barry Goldwater was, but recall what Harry Golden, editor of the Carolina Israelite, said about Goldwater in 1964: "I always knew the first Jewish president would be an Episcopalian," which Goldwater is. Specter is a devout and practicing Jew.
For another thing, he's a moderate Republican. The latest issue of the National Journal's "Almanac of American Politics" gives him a composite "liberal rating" of 43 percent. Bob Dole's is 8. Phil Gramm's is 0. The last time Pete Wilson was rated, he got a 31 (and he's moved right since). Moderate Republicans have no constituency in party primaries.
For another thing, he's from Pennsylvania. Barry Goldwater spoke for his party forever after in 1964 when he said it was time to "saw off the Eastern Seaboard" and let it drift out to sea, because it wasn't conservative enough. Republicans haven't nominated a truly Northeastern politician for president since 1948. (He lost).
For another thing, even the Northeast is changing -- drifting back to the continent, so to speak. Specter can't hope for a regional base to keep him alive till the convention. Last year Pennsylvania elected to the Senate a Republican who was rated 17 percent liberal while in the House.
For another thing, many women are knee-jerk anti-Specter. That is because of his role in exposing the dirty tricks of Anita Hill and the anti-Clarence Thomas crowd. Most of those women are Democrats, but there are probably enough Republicans to hurt Specter in primaries.
For another thing, he's urban. He pointed out to us he is the only Republican senator with a nitty-gritty big city background. He was a district attorney in Philadelphia before going to Washington. He believes the cities need help. Many, many -- probably most -- Republican voters are suburbanites and ruralites who are not only not pro-city but are determinedly anti-urban.
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A city boy now, Specter was raised in Russell, Kansas. That's Bob Dole's hometown. Specter's father was a junk man there. Dole's operated a grain elevator. Specter told The Sun that he used to take junk to Dole's scales to be weighed. So when Senator Specter called on Senator Dole recently to discuss his (Specter's) presidential prospects, Dole said, "Just like old times."
No! Just kidding! He didn't say it. But he may have thought it. Alas for moderates, it's an apt metaphor.