What lies ahead for Maryland and the Baltimore region over the next 364 days? The Baltimore Sun's editorial prognosticators have looked into the future and come up with the following preview of events in the State House, City Hall and the five surrounding county seats of government for 1995.
It's a new era in Annapolis. A governor with no state experience. A 44 percent turnover in the House. A 43 percent turnover in the Senate. A 64 percent increase in Republican legislators.
As usual, the governor sets the agenda. Parris Glendening says 1995 will be devoted to re-shaping state government -- that is, if Mr. Glendening withstands a furious legal challenge to his election by Republican Ellen Sauerbrey. This could turn into a court battle royale and even jeopardize inaugural plans on Jan. 18.
Assuming that Mr. Glendening takes the oath of office, downsizing and cutting costs will be priorities. A stronger state economy should provide enough new revenue to cut business (( taxes. Economic development will get high visibility.
The governor-elect is more of a consensus-seeker than outgoing Gov. William Donald Schaefer. That should ease tensions with the General Assembly. But Mr. Glendening may have a short honeymoon with Senate President Mike Miller, a longtime adversary.
Health-care, gambling and welfare will get close legislative attention. Doctors' attempts to break the power of managed-care companies will resurface, as will hospitals' attempts to get free-standing surgical centers under state regulation. Backers of casinos are paying lobbyists big bucks to sway legislators. And last year's welfare-reform bill stands a better chance of passing in 1995.
Meanwhile, a larger and more vocal GOP caucus in the House and Senate will make the State House a bit more partisan. Republicans are sure to put heat on Democrats to get tough with lobbyists and abolish the patronage scholarship program -- two crusades popular with voters.
This will be a time of hectic activity in Baltimore as the city implements $100 million (or more) worth of empowerment zone redevelopment activities. Meanwhile, the Christopher Columbus Center for marine biotechnology will open on the Inner Harbor, the Metro subway extension to the all-important Johns Hopkins medical institutions will commence operations and conversion of the Fishmarket entertainment complex into a children's museum will begin.
Politics should dominate the city scene, though. Mayor Kurt L. Schmoke is seeking a third term, buttressed by his empowerment-zone victory. That forces City Council President Mary Pat Clarke to decide if she now has a realistic chance of beating him. If she drops out of the mayoral race, her decision will have a domino effect among many City Council members entertaining hopes for higher office.
Public schools are likely to be the topic of continuing controversy as privatization efforts are evaluated in more depth. Johns Hopkins trustees will select a new president.
In the police department, Commissioner Thomas Frazier will continue to strengthen the force, target crime-torn areas for remedial action and expand community policing.
C.A. Dutch Ruppersberger, the new Baltimore County executive, began his term the same way his predecessor, Roger Hayden, started his four years ago -- announcing that the county faces large budget deficits ($27 million projected over the next 18 months). The Democrat, who campaigned as a fiscal conservative, must quickly put his penny-pinching skills to the .. test.
Mr. Hayden came under sharp criticism for slashing government programs in too hard a manner. Can Mr. Ruppersberger make necessary cuts more humanely?
Both of the county's legislative groups experienced heavy turnover in the November elections.
Of the seven County Council members, five were just elected. Meanwhile, two-thirds of the county's Annapolis delegation are new, including for the first time senators and delegates based in Baltimore City and Howard County.
On the public school front, the relative calm of the past year or so continues. However, Superintendent Stuart Berger's next big headache might be the increasingly noisy debate over methods of reading instruction.
This is the Year of the Pig on the Chinese calendar, but Harford countians should not expect a government feast. County Executive Eileen Rehrmann ordered a 5 percent budget cut recently, taking early action to avoid later troubles. She did the same thing last term, and the county ended up with $18 million in surplus funds.
There is economic justification. Local income tax revenues are stagnating, new housing starts are near a 10-year low, resales of existing houses are sharply down, and Harford's unemployment remains stuck above the statewide average. Conservative budgeting may forestall a property tax rate hike; expansion of services will be minimal.
The crunch will be felt in school construction, as the county gains 1,200 additional pupils each year but can't get approval for an elementary school in overcrowded Forest Hill. Harford has dragged its heels in putting up the money to house a new circuit court judge that the legislature authorized, perhaps jeopardizing the appointment for 1995.
An all-Republican County Council is decidedly more conservative than the previous one, which places it in greater accord with Mrs. Rehrmann.
Friction between executive and sheriff has also abated with the election of Joe Meadows, who moved quickly to oust the old guard from power and professionally reorganize the office. This could muffle demands for a county police force.
With two new commissioners -- W. Benjamin Brown and Richard T. Yates -- who ran on platforms of managing the county's explosive residential growth, this could be the year Carroll adopts a rational development plan that doesn't outpace public infrastructure.
The new commissioners want growth to pay for itself through larger impact fees. In addition, they seek to regulate construction either through a ceiling on the number of building permits or limiting the number of lots that can be recorded.
This could also be the year the commissioners get serious about alleviating overcrowded classrooms. Rather than wait for state funding, the commissioners may decide to build the schools and then seek reimbursement.
After years of study, the county may develop a comprehensive solid waste plan. Mr. Brown, a leader in this field, wants a system that reduces garbage disposal costs outside municipalities.
Municipal elections are slated for 1995. Towns such as %o Manchester and Hampstead, with profound splits between long-time residents and newcomers, will have hotly contested races.
Anne Arundel County
This will be a year of unpleasantries -- garbage, jail, school redistricting and street construction.
One of the first issues facing freshman County Executive John G. Gary and the Republican-controlled County Council is trash: The Millersville landfill is running out of room. Mr. Gary says he'll have an early proposal.
That detention center in Glen Burnie will be built, but to appease North County residents Mr. Gary may give them a new swimming pool or park.
Friction is certain when Mr. Gary asks the General Assembly for authority to appoint school board members, subject to a council veto. He wants a provision for the council to recall school board members, but council members are unimpressed.
For the school system, the biggest test will be county-wide redistricting. The county has tried comprehensive redistricting four times in the last 20 years, but has yet to succeed.
Meanwhile, the Washington Redskins could take their football elsewhere. The Board of Appeals hears the Redskins' case in April and is unlikely to grant permission for a Laurel stadium.
In Annapolis, tension between downtown residents and businesses will continue over Main Street reconstruction. The project is behind schedule, thanks to bickering between the city administration and downtown residents. More than a few businesses may not survive the upheaval.
For Howard County, 1995 presents an opportunity to address intractable problems. Land use and its effect on growth will remain a major issue as the County Council grapples with implementation of the zoning referendum approved in November.
Council Chairman Charles C. Feaga predicts residents who supported the initiative will be disappointed: The new process allows zoning changes to be approved in 60 days as opposed to the customary period of several months. That means less time to hear residents' concerns.
In addition, council members must decide whether zoning for controversial, high-density developments will be affected by the referendum.
Zoning will also be a prime topic for a charter review committee. Mr. Feaga predicts the committee will want to look at the issue of citizen participation in the zoning process and the issue of creating an appointed zoning board.
Expect belt-tightening as the Ecker administration grapples with budget concerns and launches Phase Two in its effort to bring Total Quality Management to county government. A standoff is developing over funding for schools next year. Forcing the school system to accept an austerity plan may be the toughest job confronting County Executive Charles Ecker in the months ahead.