Three election law experts who have examined the lawsuit brought by Ellen R. Sauerbrey give her varying chances for success in seeking a new gubernatorial election.
Austin attorney Buck Wood, who has tried more than two dozen election lawsuits in Texas, said that Mrs. Sauerbrey will have to provide an enormous amount of detailed documentation to make her case -- something that will be difficult under the tight timetable set for the case.
"I'm not saying it couldn't be done, [but] the odds are fairly overwhelming against it," he said. "If I were trying this case, I would need a lot of resources."
James F. Blumstein, a professor at Vanderbilt Law School in Tennessee who specializes in election law, has a rosier view of Mrs. Sauerbrey's chances. He said he was impressed by the level of detail in her allegations and thinks she may be able to prove enough ballots were cast improperly to win her case.
"If she's right on the law and she's right on the facts, she's entitled to a new election," said Mr. Blumstein, who, like Mr. Wood, has read both Mrs. Sauerbrey's suit and the Maryland election code.
The two agree that Mrs. Sauerbrey has three factors working against her:
* Maryland law requires that she provide "clear and convincing" evidence -- the highest burden of proof in civil court -- that there was improper or fraudulent voting.
* Proving that a statewide election is tainted is difficult because it generally requires researching the backgrounds of thousands of voters.
* Judges are traditionally reluctant to throw out elections -- especially those involving large numbers of voters -- because such an action can tie up government for months.
Robert Joyce, a lawyer and professor at the Institute of Government at the University of North Carolina, said Mrs. Sauerbrey's suit would have a challenging time in his state.
Under North Carolina law, which is similar to that of Texas and other states, the candidate would have to show how some of the irregular ballots were actually cast -- a difficult proposition given the tradition of secret ballots in this country.
The state, he said, would "want some evidence that these votes made a difference."
Mrs. Sauerbrey, the Republican gubernatorial nominee, filed suit Tuesday in Anne Arundel Circuit Court. She has asked the court to name her governor or order a new election based on allegations of voting irregularities and vote fraud.
Mrs. Sauerbrey has concentrated her efforts on Baltimore City, Prince George's and Montgomery counties -- the three jurisdictions her Democratic opponent, Parris N. Glendening, won in the election that was decided by 5,993 votes.
In her 19-page complaint, Mrs. Sauerbrey alleges that more than 4,700 people cast ballots in the name of people who were in prison on election day and at least 71 votes were recorded for people whose addresses were abandoned buildings.
Wood, however, said that proving certain voters were ineligible is a lot harder than it appears. For instance, he said, Mrs. Sauerbrey probably will have to show that the people who cast ballots in the name of prisoners are indeed criminals and not a relative or someone else with a similar name.
"It's a tremendous amount of work and, by the way, a lot of convicted felons don't cooperate very well," said Mr. Wood.
zTC Mr. Wood also said that because Mrs. Sauerbrey's suit does not allege organized fraud, it will be much harder for her to convince a judge to grant her a new election. He said that election irregularities of the kind alleged in the suit are not uncommon in a statewide race.
If he were defending the case, Mr. Wood said, he would concentrate his research on Mrs. Sauerbrey's suburban and rural strongholds to show that the same kinds of irregularities occurred there where she won a majority of the votes.
Unless a candidate shows organized fraud, "it's been my experience that the person who is declared the winner in the final canvas [is] overwhelmingly found to win the election," he said.
But, as Mr. Blumstein points out, Maryland law does not require that a candidate prove organized fraud. He or she must show that there were enough irregularities that "might have changed the outcome of an election," the election code says.
Although Mr. Blumstein obviously can't speak to the accuracy of Mrs. Sauerbrey's allegations, he said she appears to have done her homework. For instance, Mrs. Sauerbrey argues that 1,555 people who voted in Baltimore failed to vote in the five previous years and were therefore ineligible to vote by law.
"This does not smack of a 'pie-in-the-sky, we-was-robbed' kind of thing," said Mr. Blumstein. However, he added, if Mrs. Sauerbrey can't back up such specific claims, she is headed for a big fall.