WASHINGTON -- Barely noticed in the United States except during explosive events like last weekend's bloody hijacking of an Air France jetliner, Algeria's slide into civil war poses a serious threat to U.S. interests in Europe and throughout the Middle East.
Situated across the Mediterranean from France, which ruled the North African country for 114 years, Algeria holds the potential to send hundreds of thousands of panicked immigrants flocking to Europe, where an influx of foreigners in recent years already has triggered a popular backlash in some countries.
Events in Algeria also could eventually introduce a new, radical Islamic regime into the Middle East, adding to the instability already caused by Iran and Sudan, which are accused of inspiring terrorism and undermining peace between Arabs and Israel.
Such a regime in Algeria, financed like Iran's by oil and gas reserves, would serve as a beacon to radicals in nearby Morocco, Tunisia and Egypt, all strong allies of the United States, and send shock waves as far as the Persian Gulf, source of much of the West's oil.
"The stakes are large," says Richard Haass of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, who advised former President George Bush on the Middle East.
But for all its importance, Algeria seems to be nearly impervious to U.S. influence.
And even if the United States could exert some control, officials have had trouble pursuing a consistent policy.
Like France, the United States failed to protest in early 1992 when, fearing a radical Muslim government, Algeria's military took control of the country to deny the Islamic Salvation Front (FIS) the fruits of its impending election victory.
The Bush administration justified its silence by saying that while it supported the principle of one man, one vote, it opposed the prospect of one man, one vote, one time -- meaning it feared there would never be another election once the Muslims took over.
But the results of the military takeover were worse than Washington anticipated.
Rather than introducing reforms that could have relieved the economic causes of domestic unrest and weakened the popular support of the militants, the military government resorted to repression.
In response, the Muslims stepped up their violence. By now, the civil war has claimed 10,000 lives, according to the Algerian government. It has forced thousands of foreigners to flee, and reduced the U.S. Embassy presence in Algiers to a small staff whose movements are very restricted.
Monday's hijacking to France was just the latest indication that the civil war has begun to spill over into Europe.
France, which once considered Algeria an extension of itself, has continued to maintain close cultural, economic and political ties with its former colony, but -- as the hijacking demonstrated -- it is paying a price. Militants have tried to infiltrate France's million-strong Algerian population, leading Paris to expel about a dozen reputed agitators.
Wariness about Islam's reach into Europe also seems to have influenced French policy toward the war in Bosnia, with French officials publicly worrying about an "Islamization" of the conflict.
Some U.S. officials now say the Bush administration's policy was a mistake.
Even if the election had not been scrapped by the military, a senior U.S. official said yesterday, "It's difficult to believe that circumstances would be worse than they are today."
The military takeover has brought "nothing but radicalization and submersion of moderate elements" among Muslims, leading to "chaos and violence," the official said.
The Clinton administration has pressed the Algerian government open a dialogue with radical Muslims who favor an Islamic government but are opposed to violence.
U.S. officials also have been in touch with members of the Islamic Salvation Front outside Algeria.
U.S. diplomats also have pressed Algeria to reverse decades of socialism and open its economy to capitalism in hopes of generating the jobs needed to ease widespread poverty and overcrowded housing.
The Clinton administration also has harshly criticized human-rights abuses by the government and faulted the rise of hard-liners in the military leadership.
While the Algerian government has begun economic reforms, it has ignored U.S. exhortations to talk to its political opponents.
The death toll in the current hostilities has been relatively light compared with the nation's suffering in the eight-year war that ended French rule in 1962. That war claimed 1 million lives, out of a population of 11 million.
"We don't see that either side has the ability to inflict a final defeat," the senior U.S. official said. The more likely scenario is "prolonged violence, with increasing anarchy and killings," he said.
This, says Mr. Haass, will be bad enough. It could turn Algeria into another "Lebanon in the '80s," he said, a place where "no Westerner can step."
And as refugee flows increase, "It is more likely than not that the war for control of Algeria will be fought on the streets of France."
The Clinton administration, meanwhile, is quietly pushing Morocco, Egypt and Tunisia to democratize so as to give a broader population a stake in society and thereby blunt Islamic extremists.
But by its willingness to talk with members of the Islamic Salvation Front, the United States may only increase the nervousness of moderate regimes in the region, in the view of some analysts.
Such a dialogue could cause the governments in these friendly countries, all of which support the Middle East peace process, to suspect that the United States is hedging its bets and won't support them in the crunch.
Robert Satloff, director of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, said: "Any diplomatic dialogue with radical Islamic opposition groups only sends the wrong message to secular regimes that deserve American support in this great battle against radicalism and extremism."
THE ALGERIAN PROBLEM
1. FRANCE: Home for at least 1 million people born in Algeria.
2. ALGERIA: Ruled by military-backed government.
3. EGYPT, MOROCCO, TUNISIA: Militants may find fertile ground.