WASHINGTON -- American consumers are on a late-year spending binge that may produce headaches in 1995, according to economic reports released yesterday.
Despite a slight drop in personal income last month, consumer spending climbed briskly again in November, rising six-tenths of 1 percent and embracing a wide variety of goods and services, the Commerce Department reported.
Indeed, it is possible, economists say, that overextended householders could cause the economy to slow more than policy-makers at the Federal Reserve desire and stir fears of recession.
"What we have is strong spending and weak incomes," said Donald H. Straszheim, chief economist at Merrill Lynch. "Over time, that can't last."
Personal income fell one-tenth of a percent in November, after a big 1.4 percent advance in October that largely reflected bonus payments in the auto industry and one-time subsidy payments to farmers.
Despite this squeeze, which depressed the personal savings rate last month to 4.1 percent from a 4.8 percent rate in October, consumers actually became more confident with the approach of the gift-buying holidays.
The University of Michigan's confidence index was put at 95.1 for December, subscribers to its service said yesterday, up from 91.6 in November.
In still another report on the economy yesterday, orders to the nation's factories for long-lived goods, from camcorders to artillery shells, surged 3.4 percent in November.
Although this was a bigger advance than generally expected, close scrutiny suggested that this sector of the economy might already be softening after buttressing the business expansion for the last two years. The increase was concentrated in airplanes and cars.
Orders for durables -- those goods designed to last at least three years -- was up only eight-tenths of 1 percent when transportation equipment is excluded. The transportation sector rebounded by a strong 12.5 percent after a 9.5 percent plunge in October.
Orders for primary metals eased 1.2 percent, the first decline since July, and orders for industrial machinery were unchanged.
Moreover, said Laurence H. Meyer, a financial consultant in St. Louis, orders for capital goods other than aircraft and military items -- a closely watched indicator of investment in new factories -- fell 1.2 percent last month.
Still, the biggest threat to the business expansion -- the last economic downturn ended in March 1991 -- is the consumer, whose spending at retail counters and for such things as medical care and college tuition accounts for two-thirds of all business activity.
Personal savings, at scarcely 4 percent for 1993 and 1994, are at the lowest rate since records began being compiled in 1929, providing little extra cushion against post-holiday bills.
More confident about their own job prospects and less worried about the future, consumers have been running up big credit card bills to finance personal spending.
But some analysts wonder how long Americans can maintain the pace at which they have been borrowing.
Consumer installment credit, the Federal Reserve reported early this month, grew at a 15.8 percent annual rate in October as all three categories posted double-digit increases.
"There is a lot of borrowing -- but it will slow," said David Littmann, senior economist at Comerica Bank in Detroit.
By spring, Mr. Littmann added, households should be pinched as the impact of higher interest rates starts to bite.
Still, many analysts say the Federal Reserve can succeed in its effort to slow the pace of the economy without producing a stall.