WASHINGTON -- Is Bill Clinton toast?
That question, or a more high-toned version of it, is a hot topic around Washington this holiday season. Even guests at the Clintons' elegant White House Christmas parties were asking each other whether their host had fallen too far politically to recover.
No one, of course, can predict for sure what will happen in Washington next month, much less two years from now. But that doesn't stop everyone from trying.
The idea that Mr. Clinton is destined to be a one-term president seems to be taking on a life of its own. It seems to be luring a large field of Republicans -- and possibly one or more independents -- into the next presidential contest.
At the same time, political pros in both parties are feverishly rewriting their scenarios for 1996. One of the wilder ones at the moment has the nation's big-state Republican governors -- in California, Texas, New York, Ohio, Michigan, Illinois, Pennsylvania, New Jersey and others -- running as favorite-son candidates in their home-state presidential primaries.
Then, when the Republican delegates gather in San Diego in August 1996, the winning governors would throw support to a consensus choice -- retired Gen. Colin L. Powell, the dream candidate of the moment.
The person talking this up, a veteran of national Republican politics, says he'd love to be in on the back-room dealing at a brokered convention, something none of today's politicians has experienced.
He does not want his identity revealed -- not surprising: he's an informal adviser to several GOP presidential aspirants. But his comments point up another variable in the mix: Many Republicans aren't wild about their choices.
The likely GOP contenders include Sens. Bob Dole of Kansas and Phil Gramm of Texas, former Housing Secretary Jack F. Kemp, former Vice President Dan Quayle, former Education Secretary Lamar Alexander and perhaps one or two more, such as Govs. Pete Wilson of California and William F. Weld of Massachusetts. A few fringe candidates could also jump in; moderate Sen. Arlen Specter of Pennsylvania says he's running, and conservative commentator Patrick J. Buchanan might try again.
For the moment, Mr. Dole looks like the heavyweight in the field. But he'd be 73 by Election Day (four years older than Ronald Reagan was when he became president). And that might not be his only perceived handicap.
"I believe Dole is not on the correct side of change in this country," says Paul Wilson, a Republican consultant. "If anything, Gramm is closer to the change."
Democrats take heart from that sort of talk.
"There's a real chance that a year and a half from now, Bill Clinton's opponent will be Phil Gramm or Dan Quayle, and that's not the worst thing that could ever happen to him," says Robert Shrum, a Democratic consultant.
Many of the GOP hopefuls plan to announce their candidacies within two or three months. Here's why: over the past quarter-century, the candidate who raised the most money in the year before the presidential election went on to win the Republican nomination.
So the real nomination race could be the one in '95 to see who puts together the $20 million to $30 million it will take to get to the starting line. That is, if the next presidential contest turns out to be a typical one. There are reasons to suspect it may not be.
Ross Perot's independent candidacy in 1992 and the upheaval at the polls last month, when angry voters gave Republicans control of Congress for the first time in 40 years, could mean that the country is entering a new political era -- the age of the independents.
"Both national parties are in trouble," Clinton pollster Stanley B. Greenberg said in a report that likened the voters' rejection of the Democrats last month to their rejection of the Republicans in 1992.
Mr. Perot drew 19 percent of the vote that year, and there are those who think the potential vote for an independent candidate could be twice as large in 1996. About one-third of today's voters consider themselves independents, according to Frank Luntz, a pollster who worked for the Perot campaign.
Mr. Luntz thinks there could be three legitimate independent candidates in the next presidential election. "It would be wonderful for America," he says. "Can you imagine how high the viewership would be for the debates?"
Despite Republican dreams of drafting Colin Powell, the general has never said he is a Republican, and if he runs, he might decide to do it as a third-party candidate. The Rev. Jesse L. Jackson has also dropped hints of a third-party bid. And there's always Mr. Perot.
"Clinton is probably saying, 'Jump in, guys.' The more people that run, the more the anti-Clinton vote would be split," says Mr. Luntz.
In 1992, a three-way race made it possible for Mr. Clinton to
become president with 43 percent of the vote. Opinion polls indicate his current support is even lower.
A clear majority of Democrats in a recent Times Mirror poll said they'd like to see someone challenge Mr. Clinton for the nomination. And there are those who believe that, when the smoke finally clears, someone other than the president will be delivering the acceptance speech at the 1996 Democratic convention.
But few who know him expect that Mr. Clinton, who has unsurpassed confidence in his ability to come back from political adversity, will give up. And party veterans say taking the nomination from an incumbent is virtually impossible.
"In our political lifetime, two larger-than-life legends tried to knock off incumbent presidents, Ronald Reagan [in 1976] and Teddy Kennedy [in 1980]. They both failed," says Mark Siegel, a former executive director of the Democratic National Committee. There is no one in the Democratic Party today who is larger than life, and Bill Clinton has political skills Gerald Ford and Jimmy Carter didn't have."
Another question is who would take up the challenge. Those most often mentioned are Nebraska Sen. Bob Kerrey and Mr. Jackson. House Democratic Leader Richard A. Gephardt might jump in if Mr. Clinton faltered in the initial primaries, and there are those who believe Vice President Al Gore could wind up as the nominee if Mr. Clinton withdrew.
Forget it, says Mr. Shrum, a top aide in the 1980 Kennedy campaign.
"I don't believe Clinton would get out, and it would be very hard to beat him," he says, adding that those who are writing Mr. Clinton off now are being foolish.
"Clinton is down as far at this point as Bush was up in 1990," he says, recalling the former president's record high poll ratings after the Persian Gulf war and how pundits said at the time that he was unbeatable in 1992. "That should tell us something" about how fast things can turn around, he adds.