Has Harford County's economic development program matured to the point where the former attractions are just not as alluring as they once were?
Has the magical "fast track" building approval become less potent in wooing new businesses to locate in the county? Is Harford's inventory of affordable, available commercial land too limited to continue the boom in warehousing operations (taking advantage of its location along Interstate 95)? Has the cost of its land risen so far as to hinder its competitiveness?
Harford's recent failure to land two big-name companies with planned distribution centers employing nearly 1,000 people has given rise to these questions.
So has the warning by James Fielder, who left the county economic development director's post for a state job this spring, that Harford has an inadequate supply of large commercially zoned properties.
Paul Gilbert, the former president of BLC Properties who succeeded Mr. Fielder, disagrees about the available inventory of sites for new business. But he agrees that the competition for new businesses is becoming more a battle of financial incentives than of intangibles and convenience.
Harford lost out on regional distribution centers for Time Warner Entertainment movie merchandise and the Starbucks coffee chain because these companies could get better financial deals by locating elsewhere.
Companies may explain their decisions by other factors, Mr. Gilbert noted, because no company wants to publicly admit that its choice is based on taxpayer handouts.
Fast-track and Harford's existing array of brand-name warehouses were attractions, but they couldn't outweigh the incentives offered by competing locations, which also had the desirable transportation access that Harford does.
Time Warner located its new warehouse in White Marsh, Baltimore County, publicly citing closer access to the Port of Baltimore as a deciding factor.
In fact, the deal was closed by Nottingham Properties' offering a cheaper price on its land than Harford developers could match, Mr. Gilbert insists. He should know, for BLC Properties was trying to entice Time Warner to its site. "There's no way we could go that low, even with state help," he said.
The Baltimore County developer, eager to get this key tenant to launch its commercial development plans, simply underpriced the land, he explained.
It's the loss-leader principle, getting an established business tenant for a cut-rate price in order to lure future tenants at higher rates.
The same kind of bottom-line calculation influenced the decision of Starbucks coffee chain to bypass Harford County for more attractive conditions in York, Pa.
Starbucks officials noted that the Pennsylvania location allowed them to be the first tenant in the park, giving their name to the entire development. Starbucks also cited the availability of adjacent land at the York site for future expansion.
Mr. Gilbert takes exception to that public explanation. The simple reason, he said, is that Pennsylvania offered nearly $13 million in low-cost loans and incentives to land Starbucks, something that Maryland and Harford could not match.
"It was a simple matter of dollars, but I don't expect a company to come out and say that," he observed. Maryland's lack of deep pockets, and of creative land-leasing instruments to clinch the deal, left it a distant second to the Pennsylvania package.
The controversy over Starbucks also touched on local sensitivities.
Mr. Fielder had warned that Harford lacked a sufficient inventory of large commercially zoned properties. Since BLC is the largest business park developer in Harford, Mr. Gilbert took that as a sort of personal affront, as well as an inaccurate analysis of Harford's available business land.
The Starbucks episode also raised Mr. Gilbert's concern that the state development agency, for which Mr. Fielder works, has not created the financial and structural programs needed to lure major employers to the state. Part of his disappointment stems from a personal difference over development strategy with Mark Wasserman, the state development chief.
Despite the setbacks, Harford's prime location along I-95 continues to keep it in the hunt for East Coast warehouse operations. Supervalu Inc., a national food wholesaler, recently purchased two existing buildings in Perryman and hopes to see 400 employees there within a few years. It's moving here from Hagerstown -- with the aid of a $500,000 worker training grant from the state.
Harford officials are also hopeful of getting the new Saks Fifth Avenue distribution center, in competition with a central New Jersey site. The New York department store chain would bring nearly 400 jobs to the new facility. But the retailer is still undecided, calling the two states equal in their offers, and waiting for the rivals to improve their bids. Just what Maryland will finally put on the table remains a guarded secret. Sometimes, what looks like economic development is just moving jobs from one company to another, without any real gain. CarnaudMetalbox Enterprises opened a new factory in Riverside Business Park last year, employing two dozen workers. Last month, Susquehanna Metal Box in Havre de Grace announced it would close. The reason? A Carnaud Metalbox factory (not necessarily the Riverside plant) will make the Kiwi shoe polish cans turned out for 35 years by Susquehanna's workers.
Mike Burns is The Baltimore Sun's editorial writer in Harford County.