TAIPEI, Taiwan -- It's one of Taipei's four nice days a year, but Cheng Lang-ping wants to meet in a dark and icy steakhouse. The meeting comes only after a friend thrice removed has vouched that the reporter is not CIA, FBI or KGB. And, of course, no photos, please.
It may sound a bit excessive, even for a best-selling author, but Mr. Cheng has just written a book that has so shocked his fellow citizens that he has received death threats and charges of being a spy.
The book is called "August 1995: The Prediction of Communist China's Military Invasion of Taiwan." Although still untranslated into English, the book was published with an English title as well: "T Day: The Warning of Taiwan Strait War."
Within four months, the book has sold 250,000 copies. Its message: China will use Taiwan's democratization, which could see a separatist party take charge of the island in 18 months, as a pretext for invading.
"I wrote this book as a warning. People haven't taken the Communists seriously when they've warned that they would invade Taiwan if it declared independence, and I want to show that they should be taken seriously," said Mr. Cheng, a 43-year-old journalist.
Contrary to many public claims, Mr. Cheng has not written under a pseudonym, is not a high-ranking military officer and has not received secret documents from the mainland. He says his information comes from public sources and is based on common-sense assumptions.
Indeed, the book reveals no secret strategies, but its publication has coincided with events that have lent it credibility. The Chinese military, for example, recently conducted massive exercises. In September China's foreign minister, Qian Qichen, said that Taiwanese independence would provoke a Chinese invasion.
Add to this the success in recent local elections by Taiwan's separatist party and direct presidential elections in about 14 months.
Mr. Cheng believes that Taiwan is especially vulnerable to invasion over the next two to three years. While China's military will take possession of modern Russian fighters and will have upgraded many naval units, Taiwan will still be waiting for delivery of U.S. F-16 and French Mirage 2000 warplanes.
Mr. Cheng also discounts Western views that as China modernizes economically, it is unlikely to provoke a war. He points to the Japan and Germany of the first half of this century as examples of economically expanding countries that embarked on military adventures.
"My goal is to let the world know that although the Cold War is over, there is a new Cold War developing across the Taiwan Straits," Mr. Cheng said. "People shouldn't underestimate the desire of the mainland not to lose Taiwan."
Building on his publishing success, Mr. Cheng is thinking of quitting his job as a journalist and taking up writing as a full-time career. He's planning a trilogy of "T Day" books.
The current book's "T" stands for Taiwan, he says, and the next will refer to "turning point," when Chinese strongman Deng Xiaoping dies.
He hasn't yet figured out what the third "T" book will stand for.