Talk about short honeymoons. New county executives Charles A. Dutch Ruppersberger III in Baltimore County and Wayne K. Curry in Prince George's barely got time to brush the confetti off their lapels when they realized they had been left with huge deficits by the men they are replacing.
In Prince George's, the $45 million surplus from the last fiscal year that Parris N. Glendening touted in his campaign for governor rapidly dissolved into a $107 million deficit expected for the coming budget year. Anemic income tax revenues also tripped up Baltimore County, which faces a $4 million deficit this year and a shortfall of up to $15 million next year. "I learned about this on my first day in office and I'm making it a public issue on my third day," said Mr. Ruppersberger (who apparently was unable to solve it on his second day.)
Likewise in Montgomery County, an $80 million shortfall is projected. And in Baltimore, officials fear a voracious appetite from the downtown business sector for property assessment appeals. City officials already anticipate having to refund $4 million this year because of successful appeals downtown, twice what they expected.
Some local budget-makers got tripped up on the income tax estimates because of an adjustment the state made to account for a heavy load of tax refunds last year. Some officials take the optimistic view that the income tax revenues will pick up later, based on the assumption that taxpayers reduced their tax withholding amounts after receiving large refunds last year and thus, more tax income will come in later.
As for property tax revenues, which provide more than half the budget base for local governments, they'll grow like corn in December. The assessments due this month will officially put the finish to the boom-time '80s, since this is the third year in the three-year assessment cycle that property values have been flat, as compared to the torrid, double-digit growth several years ago.
Governments that succumb to "complacency creep" will get burned. Those jurisdictions that suppress income estimates are likely to come closer to reality. In Harford County, for example, where Eileen M. Rehrmann's conservatism convinced voters to grant her a second term, revenue is running a tick ahead of estimates. While local politicians hope the turmoil of staff layoffs and state cuts are behind them, the era of midyear budget adjustments, "freeze committees" and tight money management assuredly is not.