Far from a "throw the bums out" message, what voters indicated they wanted in last month's local election was more of the green eyeshade-style of management they swept into office four years ago. The only locale where voters made a striking change was in Baltimore County, but even there the choice of a new leader seemed more a matter of style than philosophy. Judging from early budget reports, that was a good thing.
In Howard County, officials are predicting a $4 million shortfall in income tax revenues, not to mention the slowest growth in real estate assessments in 20 years. Baltimore County is projecting deficits of $4 million this fiscal year and $15 million next year. In Baltimore, which holds elections next year, officials face a run on property assessment appeals in the downtown commercial core. Montgomery County, an $80 million shortfall is projected. Most severe of all, in Prince George's County a $45 million surplus that Parris N. Glendening touted in his campaign for governor vaporized. A $107 million deficit is expected for the coming budget year.
While some jurisdictions have deeper problems, most localities are better off than four years ago. They created "rainy day"
reserves for emergencies. They trimmed jobs and privatized some agencies. They struck a wary peace with leaders in Annapolis on further state cuts or mandates. And flat real estate values are not the shock to the system they were coming out of the 1980s.
This month signals the official conclusion of the "greed decade." It marks the end of the three-year assessment cycle -- the last year government can live off the fat of that explosive growth in property values. After the 42 percent eruption in assessments five years ago, the growth rate plunged to low single-digits the past two years. Don't expect much better this year.
With assessments of existing properties and construction of new ones fairly flat, even the wealthiest suburbs will be pressed. Government executives will have to deal with more labor strife, if not in the form of layoffs or furloughs, at least from smaller pay gains than employees feel are due them. Sluggish revenue growth will also hamper capital projects.
Some Democrats snorted this fall that voters seemed unimpressed by the positive economic indicators. To the contrary, Maryland voters seemed to intuit the fact that it's no time to strike up a chorus of "Let the good times roll."