THE GREAT EARTHQUAKE of '94 did not end on Election Day. It only began. Deep below the surface, the tectonic plates of American politics have shifted, and the aftershocks will be rumbling through Capitol Hill for years to come. Not only have Republicans won a temporary majority in both houses of Congress, but also they are now in a position to solidify their gains far into the future.
Many Democrats are trying to convince themselves that their defeat did not reflect a basic flaw in the party's message, only an unfortunate series of unconnected forces: President Clinton's unpopularity, an anti-Washington mood, poor public relations, right-wing radio talk shows. In this version of events, the Democrats can easily recapture Congress in two years. All they have to do is wait for the Republicans to make mistakes.
This hope is almost certainly wrong. The election returns reveal one obvious reason: White males are leading a steady outflow of traditional Democrats from party ranks, and for the first time since the New Deal, Republicans can legitimately claim to be the dominant party. Just as significant, but less visible, is a second point. The Republicans can now do what the Democrats have long done: use their majority status to reward friends, punish enemies, and generally entrench themselves on the high ground of the political battlefield. Some ways this is likely to happen:
* Scheduling. By controlling the floor schedule, Democrats were able to block legislation favored by Republican constituencies. Two prominent examples: a capital-gains tax cut, backed by the business community, and school prayer, a priority of the religious right. Now, these issues -- and many others -- are guaranteed a hearing.
* Conference committees. Democrats often exerted their most effective control in back room conferences that reconciled House and Senate versions of the same legislation. Republicans were frequently excluded from these sessions, and their initiatives diluted or dropped. No longer.
* Hearings. GOP committee chairmen will now be able to use the investigative resources of Congress to probe the administration and publicize their missteps. New Whitewater hearings are only one example of how Republicans can make trouble for the White House.
* Perks and privileges. Majority lawmakers always profit more from congressional perks, such as free mail to constituents extolling one's own virtues. Perhaps the biggest advantage of incumbency is the chance to do favors for grateful voters -- unraveling a snag with the Veterans Administration, for example, or speeding up a Medicare claim.
* Pork. The majority has a better chance of directing public funds to projects in their own districts, from roads to research grants. Southern voters, in particular, often kept Democrats in office simply because they were the majority party and had more influence over public spending for items like military bases. With the Republicans in power, says Hastings Wyman of the Southern Political Report, "Southern Democrats lose their main argument to their mostly conservative constituents."
* Visibility. In the past, Republican lawmakers were generally ignored by television reporters and talk shows. In recent weeks, obscure GOPers like Rep. Bill Archer, the new chairman of the Ways and Means Committee, have become TV regulars.
* Money. Business Political Action Committees often donated money to liberal Democrats simply because they held senior positions on important committees. Now, the incentive for many of these PACs to back Democrats has disappeared.
* Recruitment. One key to the Democrats' stranglehold on the House was the reluctance of Republicans to run for office, since they faced a lifetime of minority status. Now, Republican recruitment should boom.
* State legislatures. The GOP made huge gains at the state level, taking at least 15 legislative chambers that had been in Democratic hands. The result: more Republican control over the drawing of congressional district lines, and more Republican aspirants in the pipeline for higher office.
* Race. Civil rights laws have concentrated black voters in separate districts, making many adjoining districts lily-white and unwinnable by Democrats. The Carolinas and Georgia combined have 29 congressmen, and only four of them are white Democrats.
Republicans now get to gorge themselves at this power banquet. But they should read the 1994 elections as a cautionary tale. The Democrats lost their majorities in Congress because they lost touch with the voters. And it could happen again.
Cokie Roberts is a reporter for ABC's "World News Tonight" and National Public Radio. Steven V. Roberts is a senior writer for U.S. News & World Report.