After losing control of the House for the first time in 40 years, Democratic representatives elected new leaders last week: two liberal holdovers -- Reps. Richard Gephardt and David Bonior -- and Rep. Vic Fazio, the man who managed the House Democrats' 1994 campaign.
The first two defeated a moderate and a conservative, and even some realistic liberals are upset about this shutout. One told a reporter, "Our biggest difficulty now is that we are more likely to be more resistant to change on one side of our brain, even as we recognize more than ever the need for it on the other."
What? The Democrats have a brain?
This leadership voting suggests the new symbol of the party ought to be not Thomas Nast's donkey but L. Frank Baum's Scarecrow. Consider the consequences of this vote and of implied party housekeeping decisions that lie ahead. Conservative Democrats, who thought they would play a larger role in party decision-making in the next Congress as the party faced up to the meaning of the voting on Nov. 8, are demoralized. And they are publicly critical of their party for sticking with the old leadership. Several say they may switch parties. They are waiting to see how the party decides later this month to assign committee seats.
Democrats will have fewer seats on all committees in a Republican-controlled House. If Democrats stick to seniority, a number of the losers on the most prestigious committees will be blacks and Hispanics. They have protested, and Representative Gephardt has apparently promised to modify seniority in order to "maintain racial, ethnic, gender and regional balance" as it has XTC been put. If he does, more senior conservatives will lose out. If that happens, says Rep. Billy Tauzin, a conservative from Louisiana who has discussed these things with Speaker-to-be Newt Gingrich, as many as 12 Democrats may switch parties.
That sounds like an exaggeration. But there's another threat. Many conservatives who remain Democrats may well vote not with their party on important legislation but with the Republicans in the next two years, based on philosophical frustration as much as the substance of the bills. The conservative losers in the leadership contests got around 58 and 60 votes. If that many vote with a solid Republican Party, you're getting very close to veto over-ride territory. Even Ray Bolger's Scarecrow could figure out that's not good for the Democrats in Congress -- or in the White House.