The United States could never solve the Yugoslavian crisis. It could not stop Serb aggression. It cannot halt the march of Serb nationalism.
But that does not mean that appeasing Serb nationalism at Bosnian expense, or aiding genocide by dispersing Muslims from Bosnia, would bring peace.
Collapse of the Bosnian defense of the Bihac pocket, withdrawal of U.N. peace-keepers, slaughter of Muslims and settlement of borders on Serb terms may be likely and imminent. But those things would do little but bring on the next episode.
Serb nationalism is on a collision course with Croatian nationalism and with Albanian nationalism, at the very least.
So far, what the European powers have achieved is prevention of a repetition of World War I. They refuse to take sides against each other.
France, Britain and Germany refuse to see the genocidal dimension of the Serbian atrocities against Muslim civilians because they start from the premise that war by them against the Serbs is unthinkable. Therefore, no circumstances that might call for such a war may be admitted to exist.
Turkey, Albania, Saudi Arabia, Morocco, Iran and other Islamic countries see this dimension only too clearly. And while none of ++ them credit Bosnian Muslims with being their sort of people or even true Muslims, they are drawing very negative conclusions about relations with the West.
The policy that the Clinton administration is having to abandon because of European opposition consisted largely of sensitivity toward the Islamic world on this point. The U.S. government seems more alert than its European counterparts to the permanence of the Muslim presence in Europe and America.
But just because the American view could not work does not mean the European approach can.
Croatia has threatened to go to war if Bihac falls. A second war between Croatia and Serbia over parts of the Croatian Republic held by Serbs appears inevitable. Croatia was unready for the first, but has armed and trained for a second go around.
It wants to drive Serbs out of the large Krajina district of Croatia they have always occupied. President Slobodan Milosevic of Serbia is largely achieving his goal of a contiguous Greater Serbia, and is not likely to give any of it up.
The likely renewal of Serb-Croat war would overwhelm any peace that might have been achieved in Bosnia. And it would divide the European powers that now stand united against the American approach there. What they want in Bosnia is not to offend Russia, friend of the Serbs.
But Germany is Croatia's investor and protector, keeping the faith with Hitler's Nazi alliances of the 1940s, striking alarm bells throughout Europe. Russia remains sympathetic to Serbia, historic client, fellow Christian Orthodox state. France has historic ties to Serbia, though the French public is questioning the French government's blindness to atrocities against Bosnian Muslims.
It is inconceivable that the European powers would allow themselves to be dragged into conflict over these matters, as they did in 1914 when Serbian nationalism collided with Austrian imperialism over Bosnia. But they will give diplomatic and economic help to opposite sides and suspect the worst about each other's motives in carving out spheres of influence.
Conflict with Albanians in Kosovo, Albania and Macedonia threatens Serbia with a southern conflict whenever it will have achieved stability on the northern front with Croatia. Such a conflict would exercise Turkey (pro-Albanian), Greece (pro-Serb) and Bulgaria (pro-Macedonian) in ways hostile to each other.
These two wider wars that Serbian nationalism seems destined to provoke could make Bosnia look like a picnic.
So, just because Clinton administration policy on Bosnia was doomed to fail, doesn't mean anything was ever right about French-British-German-Russian policies on Bosnia. Bad as the strains to NATO have been, they will get worse.
Serbian nationalism is a very powerful force. It has kepPresident Slobodan Milosevic in power in a post-Communist era. He cannot quit what works, especially aggression, which is proven to work.
The Muslims of Bosnia are the least of the forces standing in Serbian nationalism's way. Victory over them will only mean that Europe must grapple with a larger problem.
F: Daniel Berger writes editorials for The Baltimore Sun.