Consumer confidence in the United States leapt in November to the highest level since 1990, according to a survey released yesterday that suggested the national economy is heading into 1995 with a lot more punch than many experts believe.
The report by the Conference Board, a business information group, surprised analysts and rattled inflation-wary investors, who pushed bond values downward and interest rates up.
"Consumer confidence is now at a four-year high," said Fabian Linden, an official with the Conference Board, based in New York. The November findings, he added, "strongly suggest that fears of an imminent slowing of the economy are unrealistic."
The board's overall index of consumer confidence rose to 101.3, up 12.2 points from October.
Consumer surveys interest economists because people tend to base their views on what they see and hear in their own workplace, homes and neighborhoods. Such views often provide a clue to public spending patterns.
"Based on the more than 25-year history of the survey, the current level of confidence signals an expanding economy in the months ahead," Mr. Linden said.
Nonetheless, a separate survey of business economists yesterday -- based more on cold statistics than personal anecdote -- pointed to "dissipating momentum" as the U.S. economy moves into 1995.
The National Association of Business Economists projected that the country's ebullient 1994 growth rate of about 3.8 percent will slip to a more moderate 2.7 percent pace next year.
Among the culprits: rising inventories -- a growing pileup of unsold goods -- and further declines in defense spending.
On top of that, many economics expect the combined wallop of six interest-rate increases this year to take away much of the recovery's zip as 1995 progresses.
Yesterday, however, signs of strength took the spotlight. "The economy is looking extremely strong," Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Alan Blinder told a Jacksonville, Fla., audience.
"Unemployment is down to its lowest level in years," Mr. Blinder said, "and we have achieved all of this without setting off inflation."
While Mr. Blinder held to the Fed tradition of not telegraphing future interest-rate increases, other economists predicted that another such move could be expected in the coming months.
"It's quite clear that more can be expected," said Asha Bangalore, an economist with Northern Trust Co. in Chicago.
Analysts struggled yesterday to explain the report of surging consumer confidence, which seemed to depart from other recent consumer gauges.
Preliminary November findings by the University of Michigan, for instance, showed a modest drop in the public's assessment of current conditions. Similarly, a recent private survey of retail sales was flat.
Theories about the Conference Board findings included everything from post-election euphoria to recent gains in jobs and income to an almost willful denial by consumers of the cost of rising interest rates.
"It's off the map," said Raymond A. Worseck, chief economist at A. G. Edwards & Sons, a brokerage firm in St. Louis.
"While I hope the number is correct, you have to be very cautious about jumping to conclusions."
The consumer confidence report, based on a monthly survey of 5,000 households, found rising numbers of people who felt that business conditions are good and jobs are plentiful.
While the numbers underscored an upward shift in public attitudes about the economy, many of the respondents were still cautious.
For example, 25.3 percent said conditions were good and 17.5 percent said they were bad. But 57.2 percent said they were normal.
While 20.7 percent of those surveyed described jobs as plentiful -- up from 9.5 percent a year ago -- 52.1 percent opted for the more cautious "not so plentiful," about the same as last year.
And 27.2 percent said jobs were still hard to get, down from 36 percent reported 12 months ago.