Just as wise generals try to avoid fighting the last war, so should President Clinton avoid strict adherence to the Harry Truman model for Democratic victory after mid-term defeat. His overall strategic goal, of course, is a Truman-like comeback for a second term in 1996. But the political realities of present-day America argue for a much different tactical approach.
Mr. Truman veered leftward in confronting his Republican tormentors who controlled Capitol Hill after the 1946 election.
In vetoing the Taft-Hartley bill, he secured the fervent backing of organized labor. In pushing for agricultural subsidies, he won the loyalty of rural folk. In fighting for a national health care system, he sought to enhance the welfare state much beloved by northern liberals. And by doing so, HST defeated a Republican Party still controlled by a moderate Eastern Establishment.
But the FDR coalition no longer exists as a political juggernaut. The country is suburbanized, middle class, de-unionized. The Republican power center has shifted south and west. Democrats wonder how far they should depart from New Deal liberalism to stay in touch with the voters.
Bill Clinton ran for his party's presidential nomination as a "New Democrat," a founding member of the Democratic Leadership Council, a politician ostensibly committed to the proposition that the Democratic Party had to move toward the center to break a fairly consistent Republican hold on the White House (20 of the past 26 years).
But after his election -- and here we may find the explanation for the Republican takeover of Congress in Tuesday's landslide -- Mr. Clinton followed a course that branded him, fairly or otherwise, as a man of the left.
He increased taxes on the wealthy. He wanted gays in the military. Health-care reform proposals drafted by First Lady Hillary Rodham Clinton in celestial secrecy created a perception that he stood for big, intrusive government. These initiatives overshadowed his essentially conservative actions on trade, reducing deficits and joining the outcry against crime. In the 1994 elections, the political center kept moving right and the Democrats could not keep up. The Republicans could.
So what does President Clinton do now? The national director of Americans for Democratic Action says a Clinton attempt to move from left to center would be a "disastrous mistake." We disagree. And we think the president disagrees. "With all my strength I will work to pursue the 'New Democrat' agenda," he said after the election.
These are the words of a politician intent on capturing the political center. If he does so by pledging cooperation with Congress' triumphant Republicans, by seeking minimalist health-care reform, by cracking down on welfare, by pushing for a middle-class tax cut and and a line-item veto, Mr. Clinton would not be doing a Harry Truman. Quite the reverse. For Republicans, no shift right will be enough. But in our view, it represents Mr. Clinton's best chance to renew his lease on the White House.