WASHINGTON -- Tonight, President Clinton attempts to generate support among a skeptical American public for a military invasion of Haiti that's turned things upside down: He's been encouraged to invade by some of the most prominent liberals in Congress and denounced for the idea by conservative veterans groups such as the American Legion.
Oddly enough, Mr. Clinton plans to make the same case once made by the Bush administration: namely, that although Haiti poses no direct military threat, it is in the United States' long-term security interests to bring down the military leaders who seized Haiti and exiled its president three years ago.
"We have literally exhausted every available alternative, and the time has come for those people to get out. They can still leave. They do not have to push this to a confrontation," Mr. Clinton said yesterday.
In his speech at 9 p.m. from the Oval Office, Mr. Clinton will outline one reason for moving quickly. Using the sort of imagery that tends to make Americans furious, he will use the accelerating examples of political murder, torture and rape being carried out by the Haitian military bosses against their own people.
He will also argue that an unstable Haiti creates the potential for instability elsewhere in the Caribbean and for immigration problems for the United States. Furthermore, he will insist that U.S. credibility rests on backing up its threats.
Finally, Mr. Clinton is expected to argue that as fragile democracies are emerging in Africa, Eastern Europe and Latin America, restoring exiled Haitian President Jean-Bertrand Aristide to power will send a signal to the rest of the world that the United States' commitment to democracy is more than lip service.
"This is a time when new democracies are being created in this hemisphere and around the world," said Calvin Mitchell, a White House national security spokesman. "The president will say that it's important for the mature democracies to support them and defend them."
President shows pictures
As a preview yesterday, Mr. Clinton angrily showed reporters a grisly set of color photographs of victims of Haitian government atrocities.
"If this is allowed to stand, then democracy elsewhere will be more fragile," he said. "The time is at hand: They have to leave, and they're going to leave one way or the other."
Mr. Clinton's speech tonight appears to be directed at three main audiences.
The first is the American public, which opposes the imminent invasion by a margin of 2 to 1. The second is Congress, which is making noises about wanting a vote on whether the president should proceed. The third are the Haitian military leaders themselves, especially Lt. Gen. Raoul Cedras, army chief of staff Philippe Biamby and police chief Michel Francois.
All three audiences are tightly intertwined.
Public opinion tepid
Congress is chary of getting involved because the voters are not yet gung-ho. And because U.S. public opinion is so tepid, the three Haitian military leaders have not appeared to take the repeated Clinton administration threats seriously.
Asked in an interview yesterday who the primary audience was for the president's address, Vice President Al Gore responded:
"It's the American people, but anytime a president speaks there are always multiple audiences."
"It's definitely directed at [the Haitian military leaders], too," said one administration official. "We want them to watch the president themselves, watch what the president's words are -- and how he says them. Have them see that this is serious."
But if the president's resolve is doubted in Port-au-Prince, the Haitian capital, that does not seem to be the case on Capitol Hill.
Members of Congress opposed to military intervention fear that Mr. Clinton wants to move either this weekend or early next week before Congress has time to act on a number of opposition resolutions circulating yesterday.
Lawmakers' stance reversed
"I don't think he can make his case, [but] the invasion is going to happen, if not this week, probably next week," said Senate Republican leader Bob Dole. "The president has made up his mind."
In the budding debate over Haiti, the positions of many members of Congress seemed neatly reversed from four years ago. Then, with a Republican president in the White House, Republicans, including Mr. Dole, insisted that Congress had no right to cripple the credibility of a commander in chief. Liberals, particularly Democratic members of the congressional Black Caucus, warned of U.S. soldiers returning in body bags and argued against an invasion.
This time, the Black Caucus was at the forefront of the effort to restore Father Aristide to power. And it was the American Legion, which generally supports projection of U.S. power, that asked Mr. Clinton to hold off.
"It has to pass the Dover test," said Sen. John Glenn, an Ohio Democrat, in reference to the military air base in Delaware where the bodies of slain servicemen are returned. "When the flag-draped coffins come back, will the American people support it?"
Officials untroubled
But White House officials insist that they are untroubled by the present lack of public support for the invasion. Mr. Clinton and his pollsters, citing historical precedents, say that they are banking on two recurring phenomena: First, polling numbers on foreign policy questions are notoriously mercurial. Second, the public's initial reaction to a military invasion is almost always positive -- once it's under way.
"The American people rally around the president when our troops are involved," said White House press secretary Dee Dee Myers.
"The president feels, I guess, once we're there the American people will rally around the troops, which is true," said Mr. Dole. "We're going to support the troops if there's an invasion. But we certainly don't support the policy."
Support changes
But in times of war, support for the troops often translates into support for the president and into support for the cause, according to public opinion polls.
Data gathered by the Times Mirror Center tend to bolster the White House view that, initially, at least Americans support invasions: In the aftermath of U.S. invasions of Grenada (1983), Panama (1989) and Iraq (1991), Americans responded positively by overwhelming margins.
The historic analogy that seems to fit best in terms of measuring public opinion is Panama. As in Haiti, the Panama invasion was directed at replacing a dictator -- Gen. Manuel Noriega -- who had usurped power and was accused by the United States of criminal activity. As in Haiti, the Panama invasion was discussed for more than a year -- and the planning for it spanned two administrations.
A close look at the polling data regarding Panama contains some news that should encourage the White House -- and much information that could give the Clinton administration pause.
In June 1988, when Ronald Reagan was president, U.S. public opinion was split almost evenly on whether force should be used to remove General Noriega.
A year later however, 62 percent of the public approved of how President George Bush was handling the crisis. And on the eve of the invasion, 79 percent of the public said they approved -- 62 percent of them strongly.
Mr. Clinton can claim no such support regarding Haiti. In a poll completed just three days ago, only 29 percent of Americans said they favor an invasion.
Poll on Panama
Furthermore, in the year leading up to the Panama invasion, Richard Wirthlin, pollster for Mr. Reagan and Mr. Bush, asked Americans what were the most serious issues facing the nation. Panama topped out at 12 percent, extremely high for an open-ended polling question.
By contrast, said Michael Dabadie, senior political project director for the Wirthlin Group, "Haiti has always been less than 1 percent."
Speaking to reporters yesterday, Mr. Clinton conceded that he wished the public were more supportive now -- but said he was not going to be deterred by poll numbers.
"I am concerned about that and I am sorry that the polls are the way they are," the president said. Nevertheless, "I believe it is the right thing to do. . . . It is very important for us to resolve this matter."
TV COVERAGE
President Clinton will address the nation about Haiti tonight at 9 p.m. EDT.
ABC, CBS, CNBC, CNN, C-SPAN and NBC plan live coverage of the address.