WASHINGTON -- On Sept. 27, hundreds of Republican members of Congress and congressional candidates will crowd onto the steps of the Capitol for an audacious publicity stunt -- the unveiling of their agenda for the first 100 days of a Republican-controlled Congress.
That's awfully brazen, in light of the fact that Republicans haven't mustered a majority in both houses of Congress in 40 years.
But for the first time in a generation, the talk of a GOP takeover of Capitol Hill is real. With the 1994 elections 10 weeks away, Republicans stand a decent chance of gaining control of the Senate. More surprisingly, they have an outside shot at taking the House of Representatives as well.
"Clinton is so unpopular, it is possible that it could happen," says Brad Coker, an independent pollster whose Columbia, Md., firm is questioning voters in more than 40 states this fall.
Republicans seem nearly as stunned as Democrats at the prospect.
"I've never been this close to Election Day and thought we could even approach taking over both houses," says Haley Barbour, the Republican national chairman.
"There is an outside but real chance that we could win the 40 seats," the number Republicans need to take over the House.
Even if they don't, Republicans are likely to be part of an expanded conservative coalition that could effectively control all major action in Congress for the rest of President Clinton's term.
The recent House battle over crime legislation, where Republicans forced significant concessions on Mr. Clinton, may have been a preview of the next two years.
Democrats hold a 256-178 seat House advantage, but even Democrats concede they could lose between 15 and 30 seats in November. A Republican gain of 17 seats would boost the GOP to its highest level in the House since the late 1950s.
In the Senate
In the Senate, a Republican pickup of at least three or four Senate seats appears likely, with a GOP gain of seven needed to take that body away from the Democrats, who have a 56-44 edge.
At this point, no one in either party seems quite sure what a Republican-run Congress would be like. Though Republicans held the Senate during the 1980s, there hasn't been a GOP majority in the House since the first two years of President Dwight D. Eisenhower's administration. None of the Republicans from those days is left in office (91-year-old Sen. Strom Thurmond of South Carolina was still a Democrat back then), and some of the current crop of House Republicans weren't even born yet.
If Republicans took charge, Rep. Newt Gingrich, the fast-talking Georgian with the prematurely gray hair, would reign as speaker of the House, while Sen. Bob Dole would presumably take charge in the Senate. Just as important, the entire infrastructure of Congress -- the chairmanship of every committee and subcommittee, all the key staff positions, down to deciding the decorating schemes for the Capitol -- would fall into Republican hands.
Democrats horrified
It is a prospect too horrifying for most Democrats to contemplate. Losing control would be a devastating blow to their party, whose inability to keep its congressional forces together has fed a perception that Clinton and Co. is unable of govern.
"Obviously, the Democratic Party would have to do a lot of soul-searching. And we would have to have a more forceful, combative leader than Speaker Foley if we were in the minority," says Rep. Martin Frost of Texas, who predicts there won't be a Republican takeover this fall.
Some Republicans would be just as happy if there weren't. They worry that their party isn't prepared to assume power yet.
"I'm not sure that most Republicans have even thought about it," says William Kristol, a prominent GOP strategist.
After 40 years as the "out" party, House Republicans lack governing experience. While some meekly adapted to their minority status over the years ("a bunch of losers who were afraid to win," as one senior GOP leader put it), others, including Mr. Gingrich, became partisan Congress-bashers, whose purpose was to obstruct and embarrass the Democratic majority.
Agendas take time
Developing an agenda for the country takes time.
Indeed, the idea that Republicans might actually have to govern does not appear to have sunk in fully on the man charged with drafting the 10-point platform for next month's Capitol ceremony, Rep. Dick Armey of Texas.
"It's hard for me to sit down here and tick all these things off," he said in an interview.
Mr. Armey, who would be in line to become majority leader in a Republican-run House, says a GOP Congress would act on a number of politically popular measures that the Democrats have managed to block, including a balanced budget amendment and term limits for members of Congress.
"I think there would be a great deal of change," he says. In terms of getting things done in Washington, he added, "I believe it is more important to have Republican control of Congress than of the presidency."
GOP priorities
High on the GOP priority list are many of the same items Republicans have been campaigning on for years, including tax cuts for families, tax breaks to encourage savings, and applying the same laws to Congress that Congress imposes on the country.
But there is another side to the Republican agenda. According to Mr. Armey, they want to repeal some existing laws, such as the War Powers Act and the Davis-Bacon Act, a Depression-era measure, strongly supported by labor unions, designed to keep construction wages high.
The GOP would roll back the recent tax increase on wealthier Social Security recipients and raise the earnings cap for pensioners, while trying to slap tougher spending limits on a variety of social programs.
Texas conservative Phil Gramm, a '96 presidential hopeful who has brought the aggressive Gingrich style into the more sedate Senate chamber, is vowing to "go back and overturn" the recently passed anti-crime bill if Republicans take control of Congress next year.
It's unlikely any of these initiatives would become law, with a Democratic president able to use his veto and with Senate rules that allow the minority to frustrate the majority, as Republicans have done to the Democrats for decades.
"The Republicans aren't going to be able to do anything hugely dramatic," says Gary Jacobson, a political scientist at the University of California at San Diego.
Pull Clinton to right
At a minimum, however, the GOP could use its muscle to pull Congress and Mr. Clinton to the right on issues such as welfare reform, just as it did on the anti-crime bill.
That could wind up helping Mr. Clinton politically, say Democrats who argue that he needs to reach across party lines to raise his popularity and, in their view, save his presidency.
"It may mean that he gets a welfare bill next year that'll be more conservative in conventional terms but also more popular with the people," says Al From, president of the Democratic Leadership Council, a moderate-to-conservative group Mr. Clinton once headed.
If the recent fight over the crime bill is any indication, the losers arelikely to be those, like the inner-city poor, whose interests rank low with the suburban- and rural-dominated GOP. Cut from the crime bill by Mr. Clinton and the Democrats, under pressure from the GOP, was a $525 million program aimed at preventing crime by saturating poor high-crime neighborhoods in 10 cities with private-sector jobs for youths ages 16 to 25, who would have been required to meet standards of responsible behavior in return.
It remains to be seen whether a shrewd political operator like Mr. Gingrich will let Republicans play a constructive role that works to Mr. Clinton's advantage. History and Mr. Gingrich's track record suggest otherwise, according to Charles O. Jones, a University of Wisconsin political scientist.
Mr. Jones thinks the 1994 election could be a rerun of 1950, when "Republicans didn't quite take over Congress, and Truman was a ratherbeleaguered president." The next two years in Washington turned out to be "highly contentious," with "one of the least productive Congresses of any in the post-World War II era," he said.
"Clinton might want to look back at that and say, 'OK, how might I replay that kind of Congress, more effectively for me?' " Mr. Jones said, noting that it was during the final year of that Congress that Truman announced he would not seek re-election.
A DOZEN TO WATCH IN '94
California Governor: Tossup
To win in '96, Bill Clinton must carry California. But that gets tougher if Republican Gov. Pete Wilson holds off Jerry Brown's sister Kathleen this fall.
The biggest race of the year.
Virginia Senator: Tossup
Ollie North, who lied to Congress, vs. Sen. Chuck Robb, who got naked with a beauty queen, vs. former Gov. Doug Wilder, who can't stand Robb, vs. Marshall Coleman, who lost to Wilder. The biggest farce of the year.
Pennsylvania Senator: Tossup
When little-known Harris Wofford used the health care issue to defeat Bush Cabinet member Dick Thornburgh in a 1991 special election, it marked the beginning of the political end for Bush and the start of health reform as a national issue. Now health reform is in trouble and so is Sen Wofford, who faces conservative Rep. Rick Santorum from western Pennsylvania.
Massachusetts Senator; Kennedy favored
Ted Kennedy, who began serving in the Senate when brother Jack was president, is said to be facing the toughest re-election race of his long career. But not that tough.
California Senator: Tossup
Oil-rich Michael Huffington, a freshman congressman, will sink up to $20 million of his own money into unseating Democratic Sen. Dianne Feinstein, who is running very scared.
New York Represenative: Rangel Favored
Also from the Family Feud Dept.: Rep. Charles Rangel, an influential member of the Congressional Black Caucus, faces a primary challenge from New York CityCouncilman Adam Clayton Powell IV, son of the man Rangel unseated 24 years ago. It's Rangel's most serious challenge in more than two decades.
New York Governor: Tossup
After 12 years, New Yorkers have grown tired of listening to Gov. Mario Cuomo. But is a Republican nobody named George Pataki really a credible alternative?
Florida and Texas Governor: Tossups
President George Bush's offspring are trying to make a little history of their own. Son Jeb is one of several Republicans taking on Democratic Gov. Lawton Chiles of Florida. Older brother George, an owner of the Texas Rangers baseball team, desperately wants to make Texas Gov. Ann Richards eat her famous words about his dad being "born with a silver foot in his mouth," by defeating her in November.
Delaware Senator: Roth favored
Republican Bill Roth is 73. He's been in the Senate nearly a quarter-century. He'd like to become the first senator from Delaware to serve five terms. But Democrat Charlie Overly, the state's chief prosecutor, says it's time for him to go. A potential upset.
Idaho Governor: Echohawk favored
Larry Echohawk, the state's attorney general, may be about to become the first American Indian elected governor of a state. It wouldn't be the first "first" for Idaho, however. In 1914, Idahoans elected Moses Alexander -- the first Jewish governor in the United States.
California Representative: Bono favored
Sixties singer Sonny Bono, Cher's ex-husband, wants to be the Republican congressman from the Palm Springs area, home to stars like Frank Sinatra, and retired pols like Jerry Ford and Spiro Agnew. In 1992, actor Ralph Waite, who played Pa Walton on TV, tried for this seat and lost. But Sonny has a real shot at winning. You got that, babe?