After Federal Reserve chief Alan Greenspan hinted darkly yesterday that the Fed might raise interest rates again to fight inflation, the Dow Jones industrial average headed downward and closed at 3,727.27, off 21.04 points for the busy session. Long-term bonds slipped almost one full percentage point.
AND NOW WHERE? "The stock market's downside will be contained by the low level of bullishness among money managers." (Lehman Bros.) . . . "The economy looks sound and earnings are up, but with interest rates rising and stocks falling, buying stocks now would be like spitting in the air without checking the wind direction." (Old Farmer Market Letter) . . . "The Dow should slide to 3,000 by year-end, with a final plunge to 2,000 by April 1995." (Granville Letter) . . . "In investing, the return you want should depend on whether you want to eat well or sleep well." (1994 Stock Trader's Almanac)
JULY JOURNAL: "Avoid a short-term bond fund if its return is much higher than the return from its competitors. Problem: The fund manager may be taking risks by investing in derivatives or other volatile assets to achieve those gains." (Ken Gregory, editor, No-Load Fund Analyst) . . . All kinds of companies are seeking older workers for part-time jobs with flexible hours, but the biggest stumbling block facing retired people who want to work is their own self-defeating attitudes. They sit at home saying, 'I'd love to work, but no one would hire me.' " (Anne Marrs Dorton, Innovative Management)
NEW TREND: "Until now, economics has been a mostly-male club. Almost one-half of practicing economists in the U.S. in 1993 were female, compared with one-third back in 1985. Leading the way are four women who now occupy senior government economic posts. Alice Rivlin climbs from No. 2 in the White House budget office to No. 1, Laura Tyson chairs the Council of Economic Advisors, Joan Spero serves as Under Secretary of State for economic policy and Alicia Munnell is Assistant Treasury Secretary for economics. Ms. Munnell quips, 'We've graduated from home economics to macroeconomics.' " (Business Week, July 25)
MARYLAND MEMOS: Washington Savings (Maryland) (1  843-7250) is listed under "Top-Yielding Certificates of Deposit: Five Years" in Kiplinger's Personal Finance Magazine, August issue . . . Black & Decker appears on a "Recommended List" in Legg Mason's 78-page July "Research Monthly" booklet . . . "T. Rowe Price Associates, the big investment adviser, with $55 billion under management, including $36 billion in mutual funds, will benefit from an aging population. Eddie Brown, CEO, Baltimore-based Brown Capital Management, suggests 'there will be more saving and investing in the future.' He expects Price will show long-term profit growth of 15 percent annually." (Kiplinger's Personal Finance Magazine, August)
NOTES & QUOTES: "Frequent-flier club members: Hold on to your ticket receipt and boarding pass until the miles appear on your statement. Always check mileage statements for accuracy, and remember that most airlines will not credit mileage after a year." (Conde Nast Traveler) . . . "Warren Buffett, through his investment vehicle, Berkshire Hathaway, owns 10.7 percent of the outstanding shares of Gillette," (Dick Davis Digest). Ticker Note: Had you in vested $10,000 with Mr. Buffett in 1955, you would now be worth over $60 million (no misprint) . . . "There's an inescapable impulse among small investors to want something 'hot.' Thus, many fall victim to a questionable penny-stock broker or they buy an unseasoned 'new issue,' only to see the stock tank." (Smart Money, August)
HOPEFULLY HELPFUL: For a "Handbook of Small Business Data," send a $19 check to Government Printing Office, P.O. Box 371954, Pittsburgh, Pa. 15250, and ask for stock number 045-000-00270-5. The book has information about health insurance, pension trends, small business finance, women and minority firms, bankruptcy, etc . . . "Safe-deposit box contents are not insured by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp., or by the bank where the box is located. However, contents are covered by the 'off-premises' clause of many homeowners' and renters' insurance policies. You may need extracoverage for jewelry, etc., and for that you'll need to buy a 'floater' on your original policy." (Consumer Reports, July)
BALTIMORE & BEYOND: PaineWebber's Marvin Fribush will send his firm's six-page "Five Solid Strategies for Today's Challenging Markets" if you phone him at (410) 576-3220. ("In addition to Treasury notes and bonds, consider diversifying to include U.S. government agency securities, mortgage-backed securities or corporate bonds, which usually offer a higher yield versus comparable Treasury securities.") . . . Concerning Baltimore-based USF&G;, Legg Mason's July 12 "Research Weekly" says, "Our 12-18 month target is $18 per share, representing 12.9 times our 1995 earnings per share estimate, which is well below the peer group's earnings multiple." Gerald Schenker (410-486-8010) will send a copy . . . "In the first four months of 1994, when both stocks and bonds fell, real estate investment trusts (REITs) gained over 5 percent on average." (Moneypaper, July)