Maryland's next governor will inherit a state budget that will quickly fall $300 million into the red unless someone fixes a fundamental imbalance between revenues and spending.
But the seven men and women who are fighting for the job are saying little about how they would do that.
All seven -- Republicans Ellen R. Sauerbrey, Helen Delich Bentley and William S. Shepard, and Democrats Melvin A. Steinberg, Mary H. Boergers, Parris N. Glendening and American Joe Miedusiewski -- say they have no intention of raising taxes and would do so only as a last resort.
And nearly all of them talk about how they would increase revenues by improving the state's business climate and creating jobs, and save money by "downsizing" government and eliminating waste and duplication.
But no one has presented a detailed plan for solving the problem -- a plan with specific projections for economic growth or the elimination of enough government services to yield the necessary savings.
The cause of the deficit is easy enough to explain: The state is committed to spending more money than it is likely to take in.
Over the next six years, budget advisers to the General Assembly say, state revenues will grow about 4 percent a year. But the cost of government will increase by about 6 percent a year, largely because of requirements imposed by state and federal lawmakers over the years.
The result: a budget shortfall estimated at nearly $170 million in the new governor's first year in office that will rise to $300 million a year through the end of the decade.
In the language of budget-makers, the problem is a "structural deficit."
It is caused by the growing population of schoolchildren, which drives up the cost of enrollment-driven school aid programs; by relentless increases in required spending on medical assistance for the poor and disabled; and by higher prison costs, created in part by tough new lock-them-up laws that will put more people than ever behind bars.
It also is fueled by inflationary health care costs, by college and university expenses that cannot be covered indefinitely by raising tuition, and by assumptions that the state will resume its practice of increasing welfare grants each year and giving state workers cost-of-living raises.
Maryland's Constitution requires the governor to submit a balanced budget, so the next chief executive cannot ignore the deficit problem.
But for candidates seeking the job, avoidance seems to be the rule, not the exception. Conventional political wisdom says it is safer to be vague than to antagonize one interest group or another.
When pressed to say what they would do, the candidates' answers have been all over the lot. They range from oddly microscopic (such an idea by state Senator Miedusiewski of Baltimore to hire bilingual economic development officials to save on the cost of interpreters overseas) to extremely vague (such as the assertion by a spokesman for Mrs. Bentley that "streamlining government is where it's at.")
"Mrs. Bentley believes in less ponderous, more efficacious ways of delivering goods to the citizens," said press secretary Key Kidder. "That is not the entire answer, clearly . . . but she is not prepared to say more than that today."
Serious problems
The deficit projections do not take into account spending programs a new governor might want to initiate in a state budget that now stands at roughly $13 billion. Nor do they reflect a variety of other serious budgetary problems, such as a $111 million unfunded liability in the workers' compensation program and a $47 million debt to Blue Cross and Blue Shield of Maryland, to name just two.
And all of this comes against the background of an economy that is only slowing recovering from the recent recession.
The candidate who appears to have given the deficit issue the most thought is Mrs. Sauerbrey, a delegate from northern Baltimore County who, as House minority leader, has spent the past several years fighting spending programs pushed by Gov. William Donald Schaefer and the Democratic-controlled legislature.
Yet even her proposals to abolish about 400 funded but unfilled state jobs, freeze other vacancies, cut her own salary and sell the state yacht won't by themselves eliminate a deficit of $300 million a year.
Mr. Shepard, a retired foreign service officer from Montgomery County who was the GOP nominee in 1990, said that because the deficit is a structural problem, it will require a slow and deliberate structural solution: a three-year review in which all state programs will be "reprioritized."
Mrs. Bentley, the third Republican in the race, said she would persuade legislators to cut programs they or their predecessors have mandated by law. She also vowed to sue the federal government for mandating programs without giving states the money to implement them.
Mr. Glendening, a Democrat and three-term Prince George's County executive, bases much of his budgetary program on the hope of stimulating the economy by offering businesses tax breaks for creating jobs, hiring the long-term unemployed, or setting up businesses in "empowerment zones" where economic activity is nonexistent. He, like most of the others, also says he will achieve unspecified savings by trimming the size of government.
Ms. Boergers, a state senator from Montgomery County, says Mr. Glendening cannot possibly raise enough money that way to cover the deficit and to pay for millions of dollars in additional programs he has promised as a candidate.
Among them are pledges to restore a $170 million state subsidy for Social Security payments for teachers and other government workers; state assumption of the $50 million cost of the Circuit Court system; and a nearly $40 million grant to Baltimore for police protection.
The Glendening camp says he would phase in those programs over four or more years and expects to do so without new taxes. But Ms. Boergers calls the Glendening promises "either an election-year gimmick" or the basis "for the largest tax increase in state history."
"Citizens deserve to know what fiscal promises people are making," she said at a news conference last week. "You have to have a governor with the courage to tell the truth and how to address the budget problems facing us."
Pressed on what she would do about the deficit, however, the senator said only that she would reduce the size of the governor's personal staff, sell the state yacht and improve the economy. Other details, she said, would have to wait for another day.
Mr. Miedusiewski and Mr. Steinberg, the lieutenant governor for the past 7 1/2 years and president of the Maryland Senate before that, offered a series of examples of the reductions they would seek -- but, again, nothing that would come anywhere close to $300 million a year.
Welfare limits
Mr. Miedusiewski said he would limit how long welfare recipients may receive benefits. He also said he would go after a root cause of the state's budgetary problems, the propensity of the state to hire employees to implement federally funded programs, then leave those employees in place after the federal money has dried up.
Mr. Steinberg said he wants to decentralize state personnel activities and save money by doing away with the Cabinet-level Department of Personnel.
He said the biggest reductions must come in the areas of greatest state expenditure -- health, education and public safety. But for details of precisely what and where he would cut, voters will have to wait.
HOW CANDIDATES WOULD ATTACK DEFICIT
Here is what the seven major candidates for governor say they would do about a projected state budget shortfall of roughly $300 million a year through the end of the decade:
REPUBLICANS
Helen Delich Bentley
Tell the General Assembly to reduce the number of mandated programs, or else legislators would be responsible for a tax increase.
Sue the federal government to stop federal mandates that lack supporting federal funds.
Review recommendations of the Butta Commission, a gubernatorial task force on efficiency in government, to see if any should be implemented.
"Tighten up" government spending and make public employees more accountable.
Improve the state's business climate to create jobs, which, in turn, would increase state tax revenues.
Ellen R. Sauerbrey
Pull back spending in first year of term to reduce projected out-year deficits.
Keep budgets not affected by caseload at a no-growth level.
Abolish 400 funded but unfilled state jobs, and freeze 20 percent of new vacancies.
Reduce administrative costs -- long-distance telephone calls, office supplies, etc. -- by 5 percent.
Cut her salary as governor by $33,000.
Sell state yacht and refuse to use Orioles-owned governor's box at Oriole Park at Camden Yards.
Attack Medicaid costs by trying to expand the economy so recipients can obtain jobs.
William S. Shepard
Over a three-year period, review and prioritize all government spending programs.
Consolidate personnel and news media assistance functions now spread over various agencies.
Review whether Cabinet-level salaries are too high.
Review Butta Commission recommendations to see if any should be implemented.
DEMOCRATS
Mary H. Boergers
Reduce the governor's personal staff by 15 percent and eliminate five state trooper bodyguards.
Sell the state yacht.
Redirect education spending from administration to classrooms.
Improve the economy, in part by refocusing state economic development efforts on Maryland companies.
Invest in cost-saving programs such as computerized case management for court system, if sufficient funds are available.
Parris N. Glendening
Improve the economy and create jobs by offering tax credits for job development and hiring the long-term unemployed, creating "empowerment zones" to redevelop urban areas and streamlining the regulatory process.
Reduce government operating costs by 2 percent the first year, saving an estimated $31 million.
Reduce government work force through attrition.
American Joe Miedusiewski
Curtail hiring of state workers to implement federally funded programs.
Require overseas economic development officials to be bilingual reduce the cost of interpreters.
Privatize some government services now done in-house, possibly including architectural and engineering work, bus services and transit operations.
Consider limiting how long welfare recipients may receive benefits. Limit benefits for mothers on welfare to two children and divert benefits for additional children to be used to pay for day care for welfare recipients.
Review whether the education system has too many administrators.
Limit the size of the state work force to current level and determine if an early retirement program would be cost-effective.
Melvin A. Steinberg
Eliminate the Department of Personnel, saving about $10 million a year.
Review Butta Commission recommendations to see if any should be implemented.
Make the largest reductions in the costliest programs -- health, education and public safety.
Reduce the size of the executive branch of government, and persuade the legislature and judiciary to take similar actions.
Re-evaluate the state program to buy buildings for office space to determine if savings to the state are offset by the loss of tax revenue to local governments.
Develop quasi-public corporations to perform government services, possibly in transportation or public safety, that are not profitable to the private sector and are too costly to the public sector.