Dow climbs 9.78, nears all-time high


After slumbering most of the day in a narrow range, stocks woke up in the final 30 minutes of trading yesterday. The Dow Jones industrial average climbed 9.78 points and closed at 3,645.10, now just seven points below its all-time high set in late August.

AND NOW WHERE? "Path of resistance appears to be up, and any risks are within acceptable limits." (Walter Deemer's Strategies and Insights) . . . "All market indicators point to a market top now." (Long and Short) . . . "Our models project an end to the bull market this year, with a prolonged two-year decline beginning in 1994." (Hussman Econometrics) . . . "Our indicators continue to be bullish." (Investors Intelligence) . . . "At 3,580 the Dow lies 16 percent below 4,260 fair value, a major discount and a fine buying opportunity." (Value Forecaster) . . . "We are at the climax of the bull market right now. We expect three crashes, not one. This bear market will be more protracted than 1929-1932, and that one was an 85 percent plunge." (P.Q. Wall Forecast) . . . "Only buy stocks when the market declines 10 percent from that date a year ago, which happens once or twice in a decade." (Eugene Brody in "1993 Stock Trader's Almanac.")

MARYLAND MEMOS: Local advertising people might be interested in a New Yorker magazine business story (Oct. 11), "The Berlin Spin," subtitled, "Andy Berlin has repackaged himself with a new ad agency that everyone is watching." The story includes a Baltimore reference . . . "While the stock market momentum is on the upside and we respect the power of money, it is late in the investment cycle and downside risks begin to outweigh upside potential. Investors should proceed with caution." (Mercantile-Safe Deposit & Trust Co.) . . . "The NASDAQ Composite is up more than double the S&P; 500 this year, telling us that small-cap stocks are outperforming large ones (and) we expect this trend to continue for some time." (Craig Lewis, Investment Counselors of Maryland) . . . Cosmetic City, Giant Food, Hechinger and Rite-Aid are written up at length in Legg Mason's 20-page "Mid-Atlantic Review." Phone (410) 486-8010 for your copy.

LOCAL SCENE: Baltimore Security Analysts Society will sponsor H. Furlong Baldwin, chairman and CEO of Mercantile Bankshares on Wednesday, Oct. 27, at the Sheraton Hotel at noon . . . David Clogg, President of Chapin, Davis, will mail results of "The Disciplined Contrarian" if you phone (410) 435-3200. The list shows an average gain of about 18 percent since early April, 1992 . . . Phone Stephen Stauffer, Dean Witter at (410) 592-3164 for his firm's "Market View," which predicts Dow Jones 4,050 by October 1994. He will also mail a bullish report on the Pacific Rim stock markets . . . "I expect the benchmark 30-year Treasury bond yield to fall to around 5 1/2 percent in 1994." (Dr. Maury Harris, PaineWebber chief economist.) Phone Marvin Fribush ([410] 576-3220) for full letter . . . Our Daily Bread soup kitchen, 411 Cathedral St., needs dry cereal, oatmeal, #10 cans of fruit, peanut butter, jelly, baby food and "lots and lots of sugar," says its latest newsletter . . . These local issues reached new 12-month highs earlier this week: T. Rowe Price, Martin Marietta, Legg Mason and Loyola Capital.

DON'T PANIC: Six years ago this week, after the Dow Jones average plunged 508 points on Oct. 19, 1987, I urged people -- here and on radio and TV -- not to panic, not to follow the crowd and not to dump good stocks in a bad market. Since "Black Monday," the Dow Jones industrial average, as we noted Tuesday, climbed from 1,728 to well over 3,600, but, more impressively, here are six-year gains in some well-known individual stocks: AT&T; from 21 to 60; Bristol Myers-Squibb, 28 to 57; BG&E;, 12 to 26; Coca-Cola, 7 to 44; McCormick, 5 to 22; McDonalds, 15 to 54; Merck, 8 to 31; Schering-Plough, 15 to 70; Sara Lee, 6 to 27 and Wal-Mart, 5 to 24. (Fractions dropped; prices adjusted for splits.)

BALTIMORE & BEYOND: Primerica Chairman Sandy Weill is written up at length and pictured in Forbes, Oct. 25. (Excerpt: "In mid-1986 he discovered Baltimore-based Commercial Credit, a down-at-the-heels consumer finance company. It wasn't too much, but it was his and he put his foot in the door.") . . . Harry B. Gorfine & Co. will mail "Minimizing the New Law's Tax Bite" if you phone (410) 539-5474 . . . Bethlehem Steel stock is rated "Buy" in Moneypaper, October . . . "A Moderate-Risk $50,000 Portfolio" by successful money manager A. Gary Shilling, in "Smart Money" TTC (October) lists: Global Marine, Lotus Development, Mexico Fund, Oracle Systems, Pacific Telesis, Perrigo, TransCanada Pipelines, United Dominion Realty Trust, and zero-coupon 30-year U.S. Treasury bonds . . . Allegheny Ludlum, Dart Group, Payless Cashways, Perkin-Elmer, Thomas & Betts and Waste Management are listed under "30%-Plus Estimated Earnings Gains, High Stars Rankings" in a recent S&P; Outlook . . . National Business Employment Weekly, Oct. 15-21 issue, runs a good story, "How to Answer Employment Ads Successfully." Excerpts: "Match your abilities closely to the company's stated needs . . . Include a table that compares each job requirement with your corresponding qualification."

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