As we near the 1993 forecasting contest "backstretch," the following contestants are nearest to last night's Dow Jones industrial average close of 3,507.78, up 14.95 points for the day:
Thomas O'Connor, 3,507; Phil Sinsz, 3,507; Herbert Moses, 3,509; Walter Gregorzak, 3,509; Mrs. D. S. Johnston, 3,506; Robert Toal Jr., 3,510; Florence Sachs, 3,510 and Barbara Black, 3,510. Seven months to go!
BALTIMORE VIEWS (1): "Investors may not realize that in reaching for higher returns, they also significantly increase their risks. Many people have been lured into buying high-yielding stocks as substitutes for money market funds. Unfortunately, they forget that stock prices go down as well as up and that high dividend yields are no guarantee that stocks will generate positive returns. Regarding 'fixed income' investments (CDs, bonds, etc.), we don't want to be too cautious but feel it's important to know of risks when one extends maturities to increase income." (Myron Oppenheimer, investment chief, Security Trust/Maryland National Bank. Phone 244-6590 for the complete letter, "When Investors Reach for Yield.")
BALTIMORE VIEWS (2): "Many Americans believe their living expenses will decline when they retire. It's true that some expenditures will be reduced in one's senior years but these are often replaced with new ones. Unforeseen health expenses could completely erode your retirement nest egg. Professionals estimate that you will need a minimum of 75 percent of your preretirement income to meet retirement needs. If your company offers a payroll deduction savings feature, take advantage of it. Another way to save is to invest in mutual funds that offer a systematic feature that insures withdrawals from your checking account." (Legg Mason's "Retirement Planning" booklet, which Fred Yoder will send you if you phone him at 771-3455.)
MORE ON BALTIMORE: On Tuesday, June 1, Baltimore Security Analysts will be host to Dan Colussy, CEO of UNC Inc., a provider of aviation parts and services, at the Tremont Hotel at noon. . . . Alex. Brown has published a 31-page "Life Insurance Investment Strategy: May 1993," with specific recommendations (American General, Capitol American, Liberty Corp., Life Partners Group, etc.), which Mark Schoder (783-3196) will mail you. ("We see continued, long-term profit margin and earnings growth as a result of improvements in the fundamentals of the life insurance industry.") . . . Smith Barney's Rick Faby says, in "Emerging Growth Stock Monthly: May," "Regarding health care, we all know that small health care stocks have been very painful for investors. However, as the charts clearly outline, the momentum, price-earnings ratios and relative valuations for these stocks are all at the low end of their multiyear ranges [and] it should come as little surprise that small health care stocks have begun to rally. We think this move can be extended." Phone Mr. Faby (494-1853) for the 43-page brochure.
BALTIMORE & BEYOND: The following market views are from Owings Mills-produced "Wall Street Week With Louis Rukeyser": "Inflation fears are overdone now, but the dismal Washington scene will hold the market back for awhile. Interest rates have stabilized, so no severe Wall Street drop appears ahead." (Mary Farrell) . . . "The stock market is now saying that the highest tax-increase proposal in history will not pass, and neither will the president's proposed energy tax." (Michael Holland) . . . "Low inflation puts stocks in a very favorable environment; right now
TC like AT&T; and Motorola, but for the time being avoid 'brand name' stocks." (Beth Dater) . . . "Right now I like Nike, VF Corp. and Tommy Hill, all of whose earnings are rising sharply." (Guest Josephine Esquivel, apparel analyst, Lehman Bros.) . . . This Friday, "Wall Street Week" will come from Tokyo. . . . "Five New Buy Recommendations" from S.& P. Outlook include CBS Inc., SHS Systemhouse, Wahlco En- vironmental Systems, Weyerhaeuser and Wilmington Trust. . . . The latest Kiplinger Washington Letter feels that housing construction and sales will move above 1992 levels, esti- mating that starts will gain 8 percent and sales of used houses will advance 3 percent.