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Stocks up 155% since Series win


Edging lower for the ninth day in the last 10, the Dow Jones average lost 10 points yesterday, closing at 3,220.83.

As the Orioles fight for first place, I looked to see where the Dow stood when the home team last won the World Series. The Orioles last took the autumn classic in October 1983, beating the Phillies, as the Dow hovered around 1,260. The DJ is up 155 percent in 9 years.

TAKE YOUR CHOICE: "The market may look good and the Dow could make new highs but the risks of a major downturn are growing." (Richard McCabe, Merrill Lynch)..."I don't think our market will follow Tokyo's 62 percent plunge, but there's no law that says it couldn't." (Mr. Ticker on "Wall Street Week with Louis Rukeyser.")..."Apocalypse now. World financial markets are teetering on the brink of disaster. The Dow will sink to 1,600." (Aggressive Conservative Investor)..."Stocks are mounting a summer rally." (Dow Theory Forecasts)..."The long downward interest rate trend continues, reassuring us that there's no danger of a market top near." (Cabot's Mutual Fund Navigator). Of the mass of material I read this week, 60 percent was bearish.

LOCAL LINE: Call Legg Mason's Gerald Scheinker (486-8010) for his firm's 18-page "Income Buy List" with company summaries...Ferris, Baker Watts' Morry Zolet will mail "Electric Utility Update," including specific selections, if you phone him at 659-4601...Tomorrow night, "Wall Street Week" looks at "Disney on Parade" with Morgan Stanley's Alan Kassen and panelists Alan Bond, Frank Cappiello and Elizabeth Dater...Saturdays at about 8.15 a.m. I answer your call-in questions on WBAL-TV's new weekend newscast...Beginning next week this column, founded Feb. 22, 1977 (Dow Jones 939.26), will appear Tuesdays and Thursdays instead of on Mondays and Thursdays.

MORE BALTIMORE: Smith Barney's Rick Faby says, "We celebrate 2 anniversaries this month -- it's 10 years since the great bull market began and it's 5 years since that market reached an interim peak in August, 1987, prior to the Great Crash."...Terrence Woulfe, Oxford Capital Management, Towson (583-6808) writes: "I enclose a reprint from 'Pensions & Investments,' May 25, which ranks us as the top-performing balanced manager in the U.S. over 10 years, showing our accounts up an average annual 21.9 percent rate."...A returning traveler told me that 4 hamburgers, fries and Cokes in a Tokyo McDonald's cost $60.

FACTS & FIGURES: Municipal bond arithmetic: If your tax-free municipal bond yields 5.5 percent, that equals a 6.5 percent taxable equivalent in the 15 percent tax bracket, 7.6 percent at the 28 percent level and 8 percent in the 31 percent bracket. If your tax-free municipal bond yields 6 percent, the above taxable equivalents become 7, 8.3 and 8.7 percent respectively...Here are annual percentage gains for the following investment categories over the last one, five and 10 years respectively: Bonds: 14, 11, 15; Stocks 10, 11, 18; Three-Month T-bills 4, 7, 8; Housing 2, 4, 4. (Data from U. S. News & World Report, Aug. 10.)...The S&P; price-earnings ratio now stands at 26 times earnings vs. 19 one year ago, a 36 percent leap.

MIDSUMMER MEMOS: "Renting out a room in your house offsets monthly payments and provides tax benefits." ("Book of Money Secrets" by Jay Baris, $50)..."Find out what you do best and get someone to pay you for doing it." (Bits & Pieces)..."To make good money, find a need and fill it." (Overheard at a recent family reunion)..."Good supervision is the art of getting average people to do superior work." (Leadership)..."People should consider using their bank's night deposit box any time of day or night to beat the long lines. The bank will mail you a duplicate deposit slip." (Reliance Enterprises).

LIGHTNING BUGS: My recent 90,000-mile $820 car checkup and repair bill (including 4 new tires) prompted me to look up the price of my first car, a new, top-of-the-line 1940 Fox Chevrolet, which came to $650.

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