U.S. payrolls expected to show increase in July Summer-job program for teens credited


WASHINGTON -- U.S. payrolls are expected to rise 177,000 in July as a federal program creating summer jobs for teen-agers reverses June's decline, according to the average of 12 forecasts in a recent survey conducted by Bloomberg Business News.

The unemployment rate, based on a separate survey, is likely to decline to 7.7 percent from June's eight-year high of 7.8 percent, the survey said.

The Labor Department is scheduled to release the much-awaited July employment data this morning. June's unexpected non-farm payroll plunge of 117,000 also could be revised.

Analysts scrambled to revise their payroll forecasts upward this week after they determined that the federal program could swell the ranks of the nation's work force.

Initially, a Bloomberg survey found analysts calling for a gain of 103,000 non-farm payroll jobs. The survey was later revised to increases of 111,000 and 149,000, and then to the current 177,000.

The $500 million government program is "over and above the funds normally provided for public summer jobs," said analysts at Maria Ramirez Capital consultants in New York.

The jobs program under the Dire Emergency Supplementary Act of 1992 was viewed by some economists as a quick election-year fix for the troubled economy.

"These are all short-term, make-work jobs, city beautification, etc., and will last only 30 to 60 days," said analysts at Evans Economics in Washington. "Yet there appears to be substantial evidence that these additional teen-agers are on city payrolls, if not actually working.

"Even adjusting for Bush administration flackery, this development probably does warrant a substantial upward revision in our government sector analysis," the firm said.

On the industrial front, the figures are expected to show that manufacturing employment grew by 13,000 in July, even though the National Association of Purchasing Managers Index showed

a decline in factory jobs, according to a consensus forecast by Stone & McCarthy Research Associates in Princeton, N.J.

June manufacturing employment dropped 58,000.

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