A word of advice to those wondering who will be the big winners at the Grammy Awards broadcast this Tuesday: Don't bet on the obvious choices.

Why not? Because last year was not an obvious year for the industry. It was a strange period, a time when even veteran observers felt a bit like Dylan's Mr. Jones in "Ballad of a Thin Man," aware that there was something happening here, and they didn't know what it was.

That sense of uncertainty is reflected in this year's list of nominees. Not only were some of last year's biggest sellers -- stars like Paula Abdul, Prince, Garth Brooks and Reba McEntire -- under-nominated or overlooked, but those who did get the nod represented an unexpectedly wide range of genres. So instead of being able to bet the Grammys by album sales or musical style, handicappers have to look closer than usual at each individual entry.

And if that weren't enough, there's the additional complication of changing tastes within the ranks of Grammy voters, the members of the National Academy of Recording Arts and Sciences (NARAS). Once the domain of fatuous fuddy-duddies, the NARAS folk have gotten hipper in recent years -- but not hip enough to make their choices easily predictable.

Still, some of us go ahead and guess anyway, factoring all the variables to come up with a list of what we think will win. So if you're planning on watching this Tuesday (the broadcast begins at 8 p.m. on CBS (WBAL-TV, Channel 11 locally)), here's who I think will wind up in the winners' circle:

RECORD OF THE YEAR: Traditionally the most hotly contested of all, this Grammy -- celebrating the year's best single -- is also the hardest to call. Bryan Adams' "(Everything I Do) I Do It For You" would be the most obvious candidate here, having spent more time at No. 1 than any other single released last year. Popularity is an unreliable indicator with the Grammys, though; moreover, that single's strengths have more to do with the song than the performance, and it's performance that matters most in this category.

That's why Amy Grant's "Baby Baby" won't win, either, while Natalie Cole's duet-from-the-grave treatment of "Unforgettable" will likely lose points for its gimmickry. Consequently, Record of the Year becomes a contest between Bonnie Raitt's "Something to Talk About" and R.E.M.'s "Losing My Religion," with Raitt -- a longtime industry favorite -- having the edge.

ALBUM OF THE YEAR: Raitt's good rep might also give her the edge on this award, but don't count on it; "Luck of the Draw," though solid enough, lacks the underdog appeal that helped put "Nick of Time" on top two years ago. Likewise, Paul Simon -- another perennial favorite among NARAS members -- is unlikely to do as well with "Rhythm of the Saints" as he did with "Graceland" in 1988.

Nor will R.E.M.'s "Out of Time" likely carry the majority, despite having been voted "album of the year" by the readers and critics of Rolling Stone. As for Amy Grant's "Hearts in Motion," consider this a case where nice girls finish last.

No, the entry to beat here is Natalie Cole's "Unforgettable," an album with enough appeal to both the traditional pop and R&B; constituencies to win this one in a walk.

SONG OF THE YEAR: This one's easy. Whatever "Baby Baby," "Losing My Religion" or Marc Cohn's "Walking in Memphis" might have to recommend them, it doesn't stack up against the melodic resilience of "(Everything I Do) I Do It for You." In fact, the only real competition here would be "Unforgettable," but its age and history make it an unlikely bet.

BEST NEW ARTIST: A number of critics have already written this one off as an automatic win for C+C Music Factory, citing the group's Top-40 success and strong showing at the American Music Awards. To which I have but one thing to say: Milli Vanilli.

After the Grammy lip-sync embarrassment of 1990, it seems unlikely that the NARAS voters are going to want much to do with a group that used one singer (Martha Wash) on its biggest hit, "Everybody Dance Now," then put a slimmer, more voluptuous chanteuse (Zelma Davis) in the video. Nor is the Factory's studio masterminds-plus-hired help organization likely to help.

In other years, either Boyz II Men or Color Me Badd would have been reasonable fallbacks, but together each cancels out the other. And Marc Cohn may indeed be a comer, but at this point he seems just a one-hit wonder.

That's why I'm going with a long shot and betting on English dance pop star Seal. His commercial profile may not be as high, but his reputation among musicians -- that is, the NARAS constituency -- is sterling.

PRODUCER OF THE YEAR (NON-CLASSICAL): Although Andre Fischer will doubtless earn points for his technical finesse with Natalie Cole's "Unforgettable," he's not well-enough known for that to sway the voters. Paul Simon, on the other hand, is widely respected, but spent more than a million making his "Rhythm of the Saints," a definite recession era turn-off. So look for Walter Afanasieff and Mariah Carey to walk away with this one.

BEST POP VOCAL PERFORMANCE, FEMALE: Because both Raitt and Grant are up for Record of the Year, you might think they'd be the ones to beat here. And you'd be wrong. This is a vocalist's award, and good as those records are, Mariah Carey's "Emotions" album seems a far more likely winner (although Oleta Adams' "Get Here" could score an upset).

BEST POP VOCAL PERFORMANCE, MALE: Aaron Neville is an industry legend -- a phenomenal singer who has never had the success he deserved, and yet has remained one of the nicest guys in the business. Expect that to pay off here as he snatches the Grammy away from popular favorites Michael Bolton and Bryan Adams.

BEST POP VOCAL PERFORMANCE, DUO OR GROUP: Wilson Phillips got shut out last year, so expect the same this time out; the guy in Jesus Jones doesn't sing well enough to win a vocalist's award; and there are too many real soul singers in NARAS for the well-meaning fakes of the Commitments to stand a chance. That leaves Extreme's "More Than Words" to duke it out with R.E.M.'s "Losing My Religion," with R.E.M. the most likely to w.i.n.

BEST TRADITIONAL POP PERFORMANCE: A new category, apparently intended to keep the Harry Connicks and Barbra Streisands of the world from cluttering the regular pop category, this is an almost automatic win for Cole -- especially since the voters will be getting two Coles, Nat and Natalie, for the price of one.

BEST ROCK VOCAL PERFORMANCE, SOLO: Despite its Boys' Club lineup of Bryan Adams, Eric Clapton, John Mellencamp and Bob Seger, look for Bonnie Raitt's soulful "Luck of the Draw" to win hands down.

BEST ALTERNATIVE MUSIC ALBUM: Does it make sense that R.E.M., which joined the mainstream a few albums ago, is competing against Jesus Jones, Elvis Costello, Richard

Thompson and Nirvana? Nope. Will it keep the group from winning anyway? Of course not.

BEST HARD ROCK PERFORMANCE: On the one hand, there's Van Halen, whose album title alludes to a common obscenity; on the other hand, there's Guns N' Roses, whose members might actually use said obscenity onstage. That choice might force some voters over to the relative safety of AC/DC's "Moneytalks," but probably not enough to keep Van Halen from winning.

BEST R&B; VOCAL PERFORMANCE, FEMALE: Despite the presence of grand divas Patti LaBelle, Gladys Knight and Aretha Franklin, expect former Miss America Vanessa Williams to take this award, in part because the veterans are contending with relatively weak albums, but mostly because Williams deserves to win.

BEST R&B; VOCAL PERFORMANCE, MALE: James Brown may have industry sentiment on his side, but Luther Vandross has the voice, and in this category the voice is all that matters. Maybe the other contenders -- Peabo Bryson, Stevie Wonder and Keith Washington -- will have better luck next year.

BEST RAP PERFORMANCE BY A DUO OR GROUP: Even though the entries run from the topical (Public Enemy's "Apocalypse 91 . . . The Enemy Strikes Black") to the trivial ("Summertime," by D. J. Jazzy Jeff & the Fresh Prince), what ultimately matters here is hooks, not content. That's why Naughty By Nature's "O.P.P." seems the M.L.W. ("most likely winner").

BEST COUNTRY VOCAL PERFORMANCE, FEMALE: Unlike the Country Music Awards voters, the Grammy folks don't seem to be swayed by popularity or Nashville politics. And if that means that musical quality, not fashion, is the determining factor, we should see Mary Chapin Carpenter's "Down At the Twist and Shout" winning over entries from Reba McEntire, Tanya Tucker, Kathy Mattea and Trish Yearwood.

BEST COUNTRY VOCAL PERFORMANCE, MALE: For whatever reason, the NARAS voters just don't like Garth Brooks. He lost to Vince Gill last year, despite the fact that his "No Fences" was a runaway best seller, and went under-nominated this time around with "Ropin' the Wind." So count him out, and look for Gill's "Pocket Full of Gold" to lose out to Travis Tritt's "Here's a Quarter (Call Someone Who Cares)."

BEST JAZZ INSTRUMENTAL SOLO: This being such a weak set of nominees, it's tempting to bet on the "dead guy" factor and announce Stan Getz's "I Remember You" as the likely winner. But given the general drift toward pop in the jazz categories, David Sanborn's "Another Hand" seems a stronger possibility (it's also a stronger solo).