Whatever the U.S. Supreme Court decides this summer in the Pennsylvania case it agreed yesterday to review, it will be up to voters here to set the official policy on abortion rights in Maryland this fall.
It is an election question whose process may be widely watched and copied elsewhere around the nation, because the Supreme Court's decision to take up the Pennsylvania case has fueled the political battle, and Maryland is now the only state with an abortion referendum on its November ballot.
Although efforts are stirring to place questions for or against abortion before the voters in other states, only here is the issue scheduled to be heard. And in Maryland, the electorate will vote on a law already passed by the state legislature, one which incorporates the same rights to abortion that the Supreme Court granted a generation ago -- and is now widely expected to rescind.
As the present court progressively moves to reduce the right to abortion that it established 19 years ago today, the momentum in Maryland seems to favor the supporters of that right, and the contest between its backers and opponents now takes on a critical energy as the calendar moves toward fall.
"People are seeing that there's a trend, a national trend toward reasonable restrictions on abortion," said Roger J. Stenson, executive director of Maryland Right to Life. The Supreme Court's decision to take the Pennsylvania case "could be helpful," he said.
If the court upholds the Pennsylvania law, the decision "casts into relief how extreme the law in Maryland actually is," said Burke Balch, state legislative director of the National Right to Life Committee.
On the other side of the issue, Karyn Strickler, who heads the Maryland affiliate of the National Abortion Rights Action League, says the potential for narrowing the right to abortion will only bring new volunteers into the campaign to keep abortion widely available.
"Unfortunately, bad times for the issue are good organizing times," Ms. Strickler said. "We have more momentum going into the referendum."
"Whether or not they overturn the protections of Roe in this case, the handwriting is on the wall," said James Guest, president of Planned Parenthood of Maryland and chairman of the coalition formed to uphold Maryland's law. "Maryland can't rely on the Supreme Court to continue to protect the freedom of choice we now enjoy."
Polls have consistently shown that even Marylanders who think abortion is wrong believe the government should not interfere with a woman's right to have one.
The only law now on Maryland's books is a 1968 measure that would require all abortions to be performed in a hospital after approval by a review panel. It also would allow abortions only if the woman's health is in danger, the fetus is impaired or the pregnancy resulted from a rape.
That law was rendered unconstitutional in 1973 by the Roe decision. But attorneys say it would be revived if the court overturns Roe and the new Maryland statute -- passed after much struggle by the General Assembly last February -- fails at the polls in November.
Maryland's recent political history on the issue is contentious.
In the 1990 legislative session, an anti-abortion minority in the Maryland Senate blocked enactment of an abortion-rights bill with an eight-day filibuster that left legislators on both sides bruised and bitter.
The defeated abortion-rights forces took the fight from Annapolis into the 1990 legislative campaigns, where the supporters of the right to abortion took credit for the defeat of several anti-abortion senators.
Last Feb. 18, a law meant to protect abortion rights in Maryland completed its glide through the legislature. Thirty-five minutes later, it was signed into law by Gov. William Donald Schaefer as the bill's supporters cheered and its opponents pledged to defeat the new law at referendum.
By July, after weeks of collecting signatures on petitions, the law's opponents won a spot on this November's ballot for the abortion issue. The political battle over the question is expected to consume most of the summer, test the organizing abilities of both opponents and supporters -- and cost more than $1 million for each side.
While the new law is being challenged, Marylanders are watching the Supreme Court to see if its ruling in the Pennsylvania case will affect abortion practices here.
Should the court uphold the Pennsylvania law -- but not go farther to overturn the right to abortion -- Maryland's abortion policies probably would not be affected, lawyers say.
Maryland Attorney General J. Joseph Curran Jr. said his office will join other states in a friend-of-the-court brief urging the Supreme Court in the Pennsylvania case to strike down the state law and uphold the right to abortion.
Mr. Curran said he wishes the court would "do what it's supposed to do and decide the issue once and for all."
To do less, he said, invites each state legislature to wage annual battles over the issue.
"I just wish it would be over," the attorney general said.
"I also personally believe -- I've been through it for most of my political life -- that it's been wrenching and [the debate] should be ended. It just goes on and on and on. And I don't believe that elections should be decided on that, and they are," Mr. Curran said.
If the new Maryland law is upheld at referendum and the Supreme Court chooses to overrule the right to abortion next year, the Maryland law would still survive.
Mr. Balch, of National Right to Life, said that the Maryland law would remain valid "because all the court would do [in overturning Roe] would be throw back to the states the right to regulate."
So the advocates on each side in Maryland are concentrating on the November referendum.
Abortion-rights supporters have been raising money for several months, holding coffees, cocktail parties and fashion shows. Tonight, they plan to sponsor as many as 85 fund-raising parties around the state to mark the 19th anniversary of the Supreme Court's Roe vs. Wade decision legalizing abortion.
An umbrella coalition of several groups, including the American Civil Liberties Union and Planned Parenthood, hopes to raise as much as $2 million for the referendum campaign, with roughly $600,000 planned for broadcast and print advertising, according to Sayra Wells Meyerhoff, one of the group's fund-raising leaders.
Neither side expects much financial help from out-of-state organizations, such as the National Right to Life movement or the National Abortion Rights Action League.
Several leaders of the anti-abortion movement say that the referendum will test the ability of various organizations to work together after years of independent lobbying.
For example, Catholic groups and fundamentalist Christians -- two key parts of the anti-abortion constituency -- will have to work together for a change, said one person involved in the anti-abortion fight.
Some anti-abortion leaders are daunted by the complications of launching an aggressive statewide campaign -- and raising the money to follow through.
"A lot of our people only have experience collecting signatures down at the shopping center," said Patricia B. Kelly, a lobbyist for the Maryland Catholic Conference and the former lobbyist for Right to Life of Maryland.
Leaders of the movement said they have yet to focus on November's showdown, concentrating instead on educating the public about abortion issues, particularly the needs of women with unplanned pregnancies or those who have post-abortion problems.
The leader of the effort will be Ellen L. Curro, a former high school teacher and physician's assistant from Laurel, who began work yesterday as executive director of the newly formed Pro-Life Education Foundation of Maryland Inc.
Anti-abortion leaders were happy to find a woman for a high-profile position, said Steve Shaneman, chairman of both the education foundation and the nascent anti-abortion campaign committee.
"The perception is the pro-life movement is a bunch of gray-haired old men who want women to have babies," Mr. Shaneman said. "We saw that this was an opportunity to get women visibly involved in the movement, not to say they haven't been."