Washington. -- After President Bush kicked Saddam Hussein out of Kuwait last winter, he was rewarded with 90 percent approval ratings and an icon from a group of Maronite Christians that seemed the ultimate comment on his stature as a world leader: St. George the dragon slayer.
A year later, Mr. Bush returned from his "trade and jobs" mission to the Far East last weekend to find himself derided as a none-too-successful international car salesman and a diplomat who couldn't keep down his dinner. His poll ratings, already dragged down 40 points by the sputtering economy, slid further.
Clearly, the euphoria over President's Bush performance on the world stage has worn off.
Foreign policy analysts and most of Mr. Bush's challengers for the Oval Office call him a Cold War president who is only belatedly coming to understand that the "new world order" may be more about economic competition than superpower military strength.
"Bush is obviously more comfortable dealing with Cold War issues, but in the post-Cold War period economic strength is going to be more important than in the past," said Michael Mandelbaum, director of American foreign policy at the Nitze School of Advanced International Studies of the Johns Hopkins University. "That's not George Bush's strength."
He and other critics contend the last-minute redesign of Mr. Bush's East Asia trip demonstrated the president is out of his depth in dealing with complicated economic issues, which cannot be solved with impromptu shuttle diplomacy and jingoism.
"The president doesn't have the interest or feel or self-assurance" for global economics that he does for other aspects of foreign policy, said Harold Brown, chairman of the Foreign Policy Institute of The Johns Hopkins University, who served as defense secretary under President Carter. "It's more difficult."
Mr. Bush's record on foreign affairs has also been tarnished by lack of a long-term strategy, poor follow-through, too much reliance on personal relationships and some of the same money troubles that hurt his domestic record.
The president "is not a conceptual thinker," said John Steinbrunner, director of foreign policy at The Brookings Institution. "He is much more concerned with immediate political goals."
On the Japan trip, Mr. Steinbrunner said he believed Mr. Bush was "flying by the seat of his pants."
The White House vigorously disputes such complaints.
"It's strange to hear because it's the opposite of the complaints we got during the president's first year in office when we took six months for that overall policy review," observed Roman Popadiuk, deputy press secretary. "Then, the president was called 'too conceptual.' "
The increasing importance of the relationship between economics and national security was recognized early in that planning, Mr. Popadiuk said.
"The president has always exhibited a sense of history in dealing with issues," said Brent Scowcroft, the president's national security adviser. "His background allows him to project into the future with foresight and accuracy."
President Bush is rated very highly by most analysts and politicians in both parties for his ability to react well in emergency situations.
He is cool, confident, and knowledgeable enough about the politics and peculiarities of so many countries he could serve as his own desk officer. His long experience as U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, CIA director, special envoy to China and vice president have yielded extensive contacts. He is the first president to make the telephone a primary tool of diplomacy.
"His performance on foreign policy on the big issues has been really quite good," said Alexander L. George, professor emeritus of international relations at Stanford University. He called the president's global lobbying campaign to win United Nations Security Council approval for the use of force against Iraq a "brilliant" success.
Mr. Bush's recent achievement in getting the Israelis, the Palestinians and the neighboring Arab states together to talk peace has also been widely praised.
But critics say the president falls short on the more mundane aspects of foreign policy, such as the development and pursuit of long-term objectives that cannot be accomplished as swiftly as the military offensives and diplomatic deals at which Mr. Bush has been more successful.
"The president's penchant for decisive action is not matched by an ability to follow up victories to secure his gains," Rep. Les Aspin, D-Wisc., chairman of the House Armed Services Committee, said in a recent speech. "It's not foreign policy the president seems to be preoccupied with, it's foreign adventure."
To buttress their complaints about Mr. Bush's performance, foreign policy analysts note:
* When the United States-led coalition launched the Persian Gulf war a year ago this week, Mr. Bush said his goal was to punish and reverse Iraq's aggression against Kuwait, prevent Iraq from gaining control of 45 percent of the world's oil reserve and stop Saddam Hussein from developing weapons of mass destruction.
But the administration consistently misjudged Mr. Hussein, beginning with a failure to see his intentions toward Kuwait, followed by the belief that he would not be drawn into a war with the United States. When Mr. Bush called an end to the fighting, he expected Mr. Hussein to be toppled quickly by his own people but gave them very little help.
Today, Kuwait has been liberated and Mr. Scowcroft says the Bush administration has "no regrets." But Saddam Hussein is still in power in Iraq, mocking talk of a coup. His armed forces were weakened but not destroyed.
"He continues to pose a potential threat," says Joshua Muravchik, a foreign policy specialist at the American Enterprise Institute. "Terrible things are being done to his own people, and he is continuing to develop weapons of mass destruction."
* The ouster of Manuel A. Noriega from Panama two years ago was another military achievement that sent Mr. Bush's poll ratings soaring. Mr. Bush said the action was necessary to protect American lives in Panama, keep the Panama Canal open, safeguard democracy and combat drug trafficking.
"Operation Just Cause" succeeded in its immediate goal of ending the Noriega regime. But Panamanians complain hundreds were killed in the fighting, many more were left homeless, U.S. aid to the new government of Guillermo Endara has fallen far short of the president's promises, and drug trafficking there is reported to be worse than ever. Mr. Noriega, who some claim might have gotten swift justice in Panamanian courts, is still in the midst of an expensive prosecution in the United States.
Mr. Aspin asserted that the United States is spending almost as much every day on transporting Mr. Noriega from his jail cell to the Miami courtroom as it is fighting the war on drugs in Panama.
* Mr. Bush also basks in the reflected glory of the collapse of the Communist empire, a Cold War victory for the West that concluded on his watch. Like his predecessors, he actively encouraged the nations of Eastern Europe and the people of the Soviet Union to move toward democracy and free-market economies.
But the president lagged behind other world leaders in recognizing the independence of the former Soviet republics, particularly the Baltic states. Although the United States has provided a total of $4.5 billion in credits and grants to help the Soviet people and $1 billion for Poland, that is far short of what is likely to be needed to keep the fledging democracies from descending into anarchy.
Mr. Bush's ability to respond to global crises such as the %J collapse of the Soviet Union is limited by the huge budget deficits that are eroding the nation's claim as a superpower. There is little money available for foreign aid or intervention; the Persian Gulf war had to be financed with outside contributions.
Part of the administration's caution in dealing with the republics was based on Mr. Bush's penchant for personalizing foreign policy. Mr. Gorbachev became a friend, Mr. Hussein and Mr. Noriega were enemies, Russian President Boris Yeltsin was a volatile character whose motives were suspect.
The Bush administration recently tried to seize the initiative on humanitarian help for the former Soviet republics by scheduling an international conference here next week to organize a cooperative aid effort.
* Mr. Bush's refusal to harshly rebuke his old friends in the Chinese leadership after the 1989 massacre of student dissidents in Tiananmen Square was a controversial decision that bucked the tide of popular sentiment. Declaring U.S.-Chinese relationship "vital to the U.S." Mr. Bush said it would be more "prudent" to encourage democratic moves by the Communist regime there than to punish repression with tough economic sanctions that could hurt the Chinese people.
Today, even government officials admit they are disappointed with the results. China provided a key vote on the United Nations Security Council for the anti-Iraq coalition, but has taken only a few small steps toward human rights reforms, while selling missiles and nuclear technology against U.S. wishes and duplicating American goods in violation of U.S. copyright and trademark laws.
* The original purpose of Mr. Bush's twice-canceled trip to Japan was to warm an uneasy friendship and discuss mutual security issues. But when polls showed that recession-panicked Americans thought he was spending too much time on such abstract affairs of state, the president abruptly changed the focus to a quest for "jobs, jobs, jobs."
Upon his return, Mr. Bush declared he made "progress on jobs and economic growth in America." But critics say that by trading statesmanship for salesmanship he may have failed at both.
The Japanese were affronted at a state visit of their most important ally being turned into a trade negotiation. And the progress Mr. Bush won on opening Japanese markets to U.S. auto parts, computers and other products were not considered substantial enough to have a major impact on the U.S. economy.
Further, Mr. Bush appears to have elevated the level of Japan-bashing that had already been an element in U.S. disgruntlement about the economy, even though economists insist the trade deficit with Japan has little to do with the recession here.
"It certainly was not an exercise in statesmanship," observed Richard Halloran, a former New York Times correspondent in Tokyo, who is now director of special projects at the East-West Center in Hawaii. "The U.S. does not have a comprehensive policy toward Asia. It's hard to see what their objectives are."