Can you imagine what the reaction would be if Tom Seaver is not elected to the Hall of Fame in his first year of eligibility?

The results of this year's voting are to be announced Tuesday night. As unlikely as it seems, and as unfair as it would be to Seaver, there exists at least a remote possibility that the 311-game winner might not get the 75 percent of the vote necessary for induction at Cooperstown this summer.

It all depends on how some voting members of the Baseball Writers Association of America decided to protest the exclusion of Pete Rose from this year's list of eligible candidates.

You might ask how Rose, who is on baseball's suspended list and, therefore, ineligible for Hall of Fame consideration, affects Seaver.

The answer is in the minds of the electorate. A segment of the voters, the size of which is significant but undetermined, was adamantly opposed to Rose's omission from the ballot.

How they chose to act on their feelings will determine the fate not only of Seaver but also of all the other leading Hall of Fame candidates. Votes had to be cast by Dec. 31, and results won't be known until the official tally is completed within the next 48 hours.

Although players not on the official ballot have never been eligible, one sentence in the election instructions -- "write-in votes will not count" -- has been interpreted as the "Rose Rule."

Some of the voting writers, all with at least 10 years' experience covering major-league baseball, wrote in Rose's name, anyhow, as their form of protest. Others signed and returned blank ballots.

The potentially explosive situation has created concern in Cooperstown. A small percentage of voters, for personal reasons, traditionally declines to vote for players eligible for the first time. What would the reaction be if a relatively small number of protesters (fewer than 75 of the 400-plus voters would probably suffice) blocked the election of all candidates? "I don't know," admitted Bill Guilfoile, vice president of the Hall of Fame.

One obstacle to this possibility was effectively removed. "Ballots that contain write-in votes will not be invalidated," said Jack Lang, executive secretary of the BBWAA, who records the official results. "The write-in vote will be disregarded, but the rest of the ballot will be official."

On the other hand, a blank, signed ballot, as has always been the case, is official -- which means three votes are necessary to offset each one registered. Those wishing to register the strongest possible protest over Rose's absence are the ones who authorized a blank ballot. Whether there were enough of them, however, to throw a clinker into the entire process remains to be seen.

"There were instances of both write-ins and blank ballots," said Lang, who traditionally waits until the last day to finish tallying the votes. "I think the overall effect will be minimal."

Had the decision been made to invalidate any ballots containing write-in votes, the Hall of Fame voting almost certainly would have again been subject to close scrutiny. The rules have been altered over the years without a foolproof system.

It would be a tragedy if Rose's predicament kept Seaver, a former teammate, out of the Hall of Fame even for one year. But, remote though it may be, the possibility does exist.

And there is an even stronger possibility that somebody else, possibly Orlando Cepeda, Rollie Fingers or Tony Perez (another first-year candidate and a former teammate) could be the victim of a Rose backlash.

One thing is certain -- the Hall of Fame is sweating this one out, hoping that a protest doesn't keep a worthy candidate from missing election by a couple of votes. If that happens, there will be a loud, and justifiable, outcry demanding yet another look at admission policies for the most exclusive of all sports fraternities.

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Speaking of which: Getting the necessary 75 percent of the vote any given election during a 15-year period of eligibility should be tough enough requirements for entrance into the Hall of Fame.

As it is, a player must log at least 10 years in the big leagues and vTC survive a demanding screening committee just to get on the ballot. Then he must draw at least 5 percent of the vote in any election in order to stay eligible.

Five percent of the vote is not much, but occasionally a legitimate candidate falls through the cracks. That's what happened to Sparky Lyle, the best left-handed reliever in baseball history, last year.

It also could happen to ex-Baltimore Orioles second baseman Bobby Grich this year. This is not to suggest that Lyle and Grich were definite Hall of Fame-caliber players. It is to suggest their candidacy at least deserves to be given the test of time.

It is also a strong argument in favor of the vote for those who may be considered borderline candidates. A lot of people who watched Nellie Fox play, including this observer, never thought they were looking at a Hall of Famer. But he came awfully close to making it -- and his numbers suggest he deserves a niche in

Cooperstown.

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Cranking it up: Spring is hardly around the corner, but training for Orioles pitchers starts tomorrow.

That's when the first official off-season workout will be held at Memorial Stadium. Bullpen coach Elrod Hendricks will preside over three workouts a week from now until the start of spring training the middle of next month.

The most significant performer for these sessions in the enclosed batting cage area under the right-field stands will be Ben McDonald. The big right-hander was only a part-time performer the past two winters, but is expected to be in town until camp starts and take part on a regular basis.

New pitching coach Dick Bosman is coming in for the first 10 days of the winter workouts, with McDonald being his No. 1 project. Bosman spent two weeks with Gregg Olson during the Winter Instructional League and was pleased with the reliever's progress at improving his delivery with runners on base.

The priority with McDonald will be fine-tuning him for the start of training in an effort to avoid early injuries. McDonald has opened each of the past two seasons on the disabled list.

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Still in limbo: Ex-Orioles starters Jeff Ballard and Dave Johnson are still in the job market. Both were dropped from the 40-man roster and have been shopping their services.

There is a possibility that either or both could be invited to spring training, but they would have to start the season at the Class AAA level, which would make other offers more attractive.

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Impertinent questions:

* Can't you read the enthusiasm in Fay Vincent's words when the commissioner discusses the conditions for George Steinbrenner's return?

* Aren't the New York Yankees deliberately walking an off-season treadmill to hasten The Boss' comeback?

* Don't GMs love it when the agents are the chief source of trade rumors, as was the case when Tom Reich mentioned the possibility of Steve Sax going from the Yankees to the Chicago White Sox?

* If the Orioles need a thorough trial run for Oriole Park at Camden Yards, the reason for the April 3 exhibition against the New York Mets, why not open the gates for a squad game two days later?

* Does the Hall of Fame Veterans Committee have a better candidate than Lee MacPhail?

Just asking.