It wasn't great, but it wasn't bad either.
That's what Prophet Pat is saying about his performance with Christmas tournament predictions.
The rage of a sage picked the winners in three of six holiday tournaments, covering 19 games last week. The Prophet hit on 12 of the 19 games and actually had the winner in another game, only to have theteam come up short in points.
With the 12-7 card, the Prophet ranhis overall record to 97-43, a percentage of .693. That's a drop of nine percentage points from last week's starting number of .702.
Boys hoop teams South River and Cardozo of Washington and the St. Mary's girls team all won tournaments, as predicted by the Prophet, but the Chesapeake and Meade boys did not, nor did the Westminster girls.
South River was tabbed by the Prophet to roll through the St. Mary's Tournament and did in the final, 72-39, over the host Saints. However, the Seahawks were 20-point favorites over Archbishop Spalding inthe first game, but struggled before prevailing, 59-49.
Cardozo spoiled the Cap City party, as predicted, by handing Annapolis an 86-70 defeat in the final.
St. Mary's captured the Noel Classic at Archbishop Spalding over Broadneck, 49-42, in the finale, but the host Cavs made the sage look bad, as they usually do.
Spalding upset North County, 40-31, in the first game, nixing the Prophet's pick of North County by six points.
Going by The Sun rankings, the Prophet took Westminster of Carroll County over host Arundel in its tournament,but Lee Rogers' Wildcats rolled, 64-51, in girls' action.
The Chesapeake boys were the choice of the Prophet in the Bob Pascal Tournament, but got derailed in the first game by Northeast, 52-50. The Cougars were a six-point favorite over Northeast.
"But in fairness to the rage of a sage, if he had known that Chesapeake's point guard Mark Hall would be out sick, he probably would have picked us," Northeast coach Johnny Barbour said.
As it turned out, Severna Park won bymore than the predicted 12 points over North County, 83-56, in the first game, then hammered Northeast, 86-67, in the final.
Old Mill upset the Prophet and the host Mustangs in the Meade Tournament, 64-62. The Prophet had tabbed Old Mill to take care of Glen Burnie by at least eight and it won, 76-56, and Meade, a 73-48 winner over Edgewood of Harford County, was a four-point pick in its first game.
Defending champion Meade was the Prophet's pick to take Old Mill by threein the finale, but the Patriots obviously didn't pay the sage any mind. There are no games this weekend because schools are closed until Monday.
Meade (3-2) at North County (0-7), 7 p.m. Monday.
This game is a makeup from a previous postponement, and it's simply a prolonging of the agony for winless North County.
The Knights of Coach Brad Wilson are improving, but the frustration continues and that usually means a "we expect to lose" mental attitude.
North County recently lost by only seven points to a couple of pretty good Class 4A teams in 4-2 Broadneck, 47-42, and 5-1 Chesapeake, 56-49, but the Knights just can't turn the corner.
And it's not going to happen in this one, even though the layoff might affect Meade early in the game. Wilson, who once assisted Meade coach Butch Young, doesn't have the kind of talent Young does. Meade plus 6 over North County.
Severna Park (6-0) at Broadneck (4-2), 7 p.m. Tuesday, "Game of the Week."
It's exam time for the visiting Falcons. Yes, here is the unbeaten Falcons' first big "test" of the season.
Severna Park's 6-0 record looks nice, but all six teams it has beaten have losing records: Northern (2-4), Spalding (1-7), LaPlata (2-3), St. Mary's (3-7), North County (0-7) and Northeast (3-4). Those teams area combined 11-32.
It must be mentioned that of Broadneck's four wins only one has come against a winning team, and that was 5-3 Woodlawn in the Wes Unseld Classic at Catonsville Community College.
TheBruins also have wins over Queen Anne's (1-2), North County (0-7) and Hammond of Howard County (1-4) and that gives them wins over four clubs with a combined record of 7-16.
So, actually, the records aren't that big a deal, right? Maybe not, but what is a big deal is thatBroadneck has a great winning tradition under Coach Ken Kazmarek andalways expects to be there in the Region IV final.
In contrast, Severna Park does not have such a winning tradition in hoops and annually hopes to be there at the end.
Also, the Bruins' third-place finish in the Wes Unseld Classic probably means as much as winning the Bob Pascal at Northeast, as Severna Park did. Not to take anything away from the Falcons, because they earned it, but the Unseld is far more competitive.
This is an excellent Severna Park team, with the likes of Rich Riffle, Scott Brown, Bob Evans and Ron Green, probably the best personnel in the county. But that doesn't guarantee victory.
Broadneck doesn't have the kind of overall talent it has had in the last few years, but Kaz is a master at getting his players to mesh and play defense.
Got to go with the Bruins because they are home and the Prophet believes that the Jeff Vincent-Matt Weimer duo simplywill take charge of the game defensively in the early going and thenmake the big buckets down the stretch. Defense wins. Broadneck plus 1 over Severna Park.
Old Mill (5-1) at Southern (5-2), 7 p.m.Tuesday.
Could this be the "upset of the week" with visiting Class 4A Old Mill coming off its Meade Tournament championship?
The Prophet thinks so. Old Mill is ripe to be upset after playing so well in the Meade tournament and then having a week off. Southern is in thesame boat, having won its own invitational, but "them Dawgs" are home and sophomore forward Chatney Howard is hot.
Southern matches upwell with Old Mill and the Dawgs are always tough in Harwood. Southern plus 1 over Old Mill.
Chesapeake (5-1) at Arundel (3-4), 7p.m. Tuesday.
Look for the visiting Cougars to keep it going and leave Gambrills with their sixth win of the season. The Prophet sees a big night from the Halls, Mark and Justin, against an erratic Arundel team. Chesapeake plus 3 over Arundel.
Old Mill(5-1) at Southern (4-2), 5:15 p.m. Tuesday.
Unlike the boys game to follow this one, no upset here. Visiting Old Mill, ranked No. 3 this week by The Sun behind powerhouses Mount Hebron of Howard County and Western of Baltimore, will be looking to regain that winning edge.
The defending state 4A champions had a 15-game winning streak dating back to last year snapped by top-ranked Mount Hebron, 60-41, in the final of the IAABO Invitational at Parkdale in Prince George's County. It's important for the Pats to come out hungry and take charge early in the Dawg house.
If not, 12th-ranked Southern is capable ofthe upset, but the Prophet feels the Pats' deep depth and height will prevail. Old Mill plus 4 over Southern.
Severna Park (2-4) at Broadneck (5-1), 5 p.m. Tuesday.
No question that Severna Park has been struggling, losing two straight last week in the Holly-n-Hoops Tournament at UMBC. In contrast, sixth-ranked Broadneck has been hot, losing only in the final of the Noel Classic at Spalding to No. 4St. Mary's, 49-42.
The Bruins are taller and much sharper at the moment. The Falcons have a way to go and, if they get a second shot at the Bruins, they will be tougher in the 4A Region IV playoffs.
Unfortunately, because of the Bay and Friendship Division fiasco, these two natural rivals meet only once in the regular season instead of the accustomed home-and-home series. Broadneck plus 2 over Severna Park.
The Prophet to date
Right ... Wrong ... Pct.
97 ... .. 43 ... .. .693