So far in '91, stocks up 11%


Meekly reversing a 10-day decline of 152 points, the Dow Jones average edged up three points yesterday, closing at 2,913.01. With two days to go in the year's first half, the Dow indicator is now ahead 279 points, or 11 percent, since Jan. 1.

AND NOW WHERE?: "Odds for major decline triggered by massive freefall in Japanese markets are very high." (CS Technical Investor). . . "Dow Jones average could plunge to 2,300 by this fall. People should be 40 percent in cash." (Ned Davis). . . "Momentum and prospects for improving profits should provide foundation for higher stock prices." (Standard & Poor's Emerging & Special Situations). . . "With a 3.1 percent dividend yield, a 20-to-1 P/E ratio and a 2.4-to-1 price/book ratio, the DJ is historically overvalued and a sharp decline should soon occur. Undervalued stocks and utilities are the only safe groups." (Investment Quality Trends). . . "The market expects earnings growth, but that could be wrong. Wall Street's second half won't equal its first." (Robert Stovall).

HELPFUL HINTS: "In the 1990s, interest rates could drop to very low numbers. Too many people stay too 'short' with CDs, bonds, etc., but I like the 7-10 year range." (Charles Clough, chief strategist, Merrill Lynch). . . "A cow for its milk, a chicken for its eggs and a stock, by gosh, for its dividends! We don't know who said that, but it's a principle many investors forget." (Mutual Fund Forecaster). . . If your income is now $40,000 a year and stays there, that sum will be worth only $24,556 in the year 2000 with 5 percent inflation. It will be worth just $15,076 in 2010. . . If you're interested in local stocks, phone Legg Mason's Gerald Scheinker (486-8010) for his firm's "Mid-Atlantic Review: Why We Like to Invest in Our Own Back Yard," including reports on Black & Decker, Giant Food, Washington REIT, Rite Aid, etc.

MIDWEEK MEMOS: Barron's, June 24 issue, says the Dow Jones stocks now sell at 19.7 times earnings vs. 13.6 times one year ago. . . Mutual Fund Forecaster, June, lists these best-performing mutual funds in order, with percentage gains in parentheses, for 10 years ended early June: Fidelity Magellan (608); Merrill Lynch Pacific "A" (526); CGM-Capital Development (508); Phoenix Growth (495); Financial-Industrial Income (443); Japan Fund (438). . . 100 Highest Yields, June 24, headlines its lead story, "Interest Rates Expected to Hit Bottom in Early July". . . The publication also says that the cost of using automatic teller machines (ATMs) is going up, as high as $2 a withdrawal in some Pennsylvania banks. . . "At Dow Jones 3,100, the 30 DJ stocks would yield only 3 percent, a level that consistently signaled trouble and marked major market tops." (Geraldine Weiss).

MONTH-ENDERS: Moneypaper, June, lists B&D; stock as a "hold" and Alex Brown as a "buy". . . Tomorrow night, "Wall Street Week with Louis Rukeyser" airs its annual midyear review with four top-performing panelists. . . In the past decade, the cost of one year at Harvard rose from $9,000 to $21,000, a three-carat diamond edged up from $24,000 to only $28,500 and the Dow Jones average roughly tripled. . . Stock brokers, did you know that one in three Americans suffers from insomnia too?. . . Kiplinger's Personal Finance Magazine, the new name for Changing Times, is out with its July issue; the cover story: "Dow Jones 6,000; Why It's Closer Than You Think.". . . 100 Highest Yields (June 24) says that the top insured area interest rates are at Washington Savings Bank, Waldorf; Second National Federal Savings, Salisbury; Eastern Savings Bank; Chevy Chase Savings; Loyola Federal Savings; Custom Savings. For subscription rates, phone 407-627-7330. . . "The stock market is the creation of man that humbles him the most." (Stock Trader's Almanac). . . Kiplinger Letter advises travelers to book airline tickets soon because promotional fares won't last much longer.

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