Slumping 31 points, the Dow Jones average closed yesterday at 2,955.50 on volume of 156 million shares. Twenty-five years ago, on June 19, 1966 -- the 25th anniversary of the date the Orioles tried to celebrate yesterday -- the Dow index closed at 894.26 on volume of about seven million shares.
LOOKING AHEAD: "Stock market indicators on the whole are HTC positive." (Martin Zweig). . . "Dow should rise to 3,436 in the fall, but then we see a correction to 2,787, followed by a rise to a major peak of 4,047 in 1993." (High Tech Growth Forecaster). . . "This market is tired, but I'm optimistic." (Carter Randall). . . "Extreme overvaluation we are seeing today is good reason to be lightly invested in stocks." (Solid Value). . . "It's getting late in the day." (Professional Tape Reader, Stan Weinstein). . . "Percentage of advisers looking for a correction is over 30 percent for just the second time since December 1987. With many people now looking for a correction, it's probably over" (Investors Intelligence).
BALTIMORE BEAT: "Stocks may have trouble here because interest rates are high, and the Fed is less likely now to ease credit with a possible recovery under way. Don't play cyclical themes but stay with growth, like Home Depot, Value Merchants and Safety Kleen." (Eddie Brown). . . Legg Mason's Gerald Scheinker (486-8010) will mail his firm's thick "Mid-Atlantic Bank and Thrift Quarterly" and also a new report on Giant Food. . . Call Dean Witter's Jack Rosenbloom (547-7027) for his firm's
second-half strategy letter. . . Black & Decker is listed under "Companies with Large Foreign Sales" in S&P; Outlook, June 19. . . Speaking of B&D;, Ferris, Baker Watts' Morry Zolet (685-2600) will mail a buy recommendation on that stock.
APPETIZER: Beginning what I hoped would be a pleasant Father's Day lunch at a Pikesville restaurant on Sunday, I was approached by a woman who stated: "My, my, you look much uglier on TV than you do in person!" (Lady, I've seen the tapes; Jim Palmer I'm not.)
MARYLAND MEMOS: "If recession is ending, investors should own some cyclical stocks, but watch valuation levels. Also, buy quality companies with earnings visibility; they will benefit first. As long as recovery is moderate, both stocks and bonds look attractive." (Myron Oppenheimer, investment chief, Security Trust/Maryland National Bank) Phone 244-6569 for full letter. . . S&P; Outlook's Midyear Forecast, June 12, recommends state of Maryland 6.50 percent tax-free bonds due March 2006, rated triple-A. . . "The market is expecting rapid growth in earnings and an interest rate decline. For what it expects, it is fully valued; for what it doesn't expect, it's overvalued" (Rex Rehfeld, Gruntal & Co.). . . Mercantile Safe Deposit & Trust Co. has these stocks on its "emphasis list": Amoco, Dover, Duke Power, Equitable Resources, IBM, Marsh & McLennan, United Technologies.
BALTIMORE & BEYOND: Dick Davis Digest, June 17, rates McCormick stock a "buy". . . Ticker note: Regarding McCormick, the firm has quadrupled its dividend over 10 years, and you would now receive 12 percent income on your 1981 investment. Also, the stock's price is up eight-fold in a decade. . . Investment Counselors of Maryland says, "We have felt for some time that the best individual values lay in cyclical stocks, and they are heavily represented in our clients' portfolios". . . Tomorrow night, "Wall Street Week with Louis Rukeyser" hosts Charles Clough, Merrill Lynch chief investment strategist on the topic, "Stocks This Summer.". . . Maryland Food Committee needs volunteers. Call 366-0600. . . The Kiplinger Washington Letter says that companies not promoting women will be hard hit, fined and disqualified from government contracts. . . This week's Barron's says 30 Dow Jones industrial stocks now sell at 19.9 times
earnings vs. 14 times one year ago.