Mayor Kurt L. Schmoke quick signing of the City Council'

radical new redistricting was a major surprise becouse the mayor had spent the previous week criticizing the plan as unfair and probably legally flawed.

But his swift action showed his concern for the criticism he took from black leaders who said Mr. Schmoke's plan was too cautious.Leaders alsdo suggested that Mr. Schmoke might have been putting his own political future into doubt if he vetoed the council's plan.

With this summer's municipal elections looming on the horizon it was clear the mayor wanted to do the right thing.

Politically that is.But why was he so worried

Mr Schmoke has raised more than $1 million for his campaign war chest and hec has the very tangible benefits of incumbency.So far,he has only two opponents, former Mayor Clarence H. Du Burns, who as an incumbent lost to Mr Schmoke in 1987,and William A,Swisher,Whom Mr Schmoke beat in the 1982 state's attorney race when Mr. Swisher was an incumbent.

Two others are thinking about entering the race: state sen.julian L. Lapides and Northwestern High School principal Boyse mosley

An incumbent office holder is usually the most vulnerable at the end of the first term in office, and the mayor is no exception.His first term record reveals weaknesses in some key areas that could be exploited.But political observers don't view these weaknesses to be fatal enough that any of the current opponents could ride them to victory.

When he ran for the job in 1987,Mr Schmoke made his top priority an improved school system.He promised to lower class size in kindergarten through grade 5.That hasn't happened.The man he chose to lead a new renaissance for the schools,Dr Richard Hunter ,has been a source of public embarrassment for him if not a public headache.Mr Schmoke finally saw to it that Dr.Hunter would leave after this school year.

The School system may not have slipped any further into decline since Mr.Schmoke took office,but it certainly has not gotten appreciably better.

Mr Schmoke disputes this,contending that his administration can show progress in education than it is given credit,He points to a new program such Writing to Read and Future Bound as just a few examples of progress made.The mayor also feels strongly that his move towartd school-based management will be the key to marked improvement in city schools in the years to come.

But Mr Schmoke admitted taht such controversial issues as textbook shortages and the problems with Dr. Hunter have dwarfed the accomplishments.

"I expect that Dr. Hunter and other education issues will be used by my opponents against me in the campaign, but I think we have a record to show that the school system hasn't been left in a holding pattern," Mr. Schmoke said.

Also, despite his best efforts, the mayor has failed to extract major new funding for the city from the state. Meanwhile, the city's revenue shortfall grows annually. Mr. Schmoke also has seen his legislative agenda criticized by members of his own city General Assembly delegation, who early on said Mr. Schmoke was too cautious in his legislative efforts.

Mr. Schmoke said the argument could be made that the city could have done better in getting more state aid but that it has nothing to do with his administration's relationship with the legislature or Gov. William Donald Schaefer. "I'm very pleased with both relationships," he said.

The mayor's low-key style also has been called into question. Some observers believe the only effective mayor for a large urban city with financial problems is one who can be a good street fighter.

"Some in the business community are disappointed that the mayor has not been more decisive. That he hasn't used his power more effectively," said a business leader who asked not be identified. "On the occasions that he has, it causes people to take notice."

But style is not an issue the average voter is going to consider directly in the voting booth. The city has continued to function, trash gets picked up and potholes filled. Despite an ever-increasing yearly revenue shortfall -- the gap between anticipated revenues and expected expenditures -- the mayor has proven to be an effective fiscal manager, keeping lay-offs and service cuts to a minimum.

"His administration seems to operate on the premise that it's better to avoid the major political pratfall than it is to take bold steps," said another business leader.

Mr. Schmoke said he feels his administration has done a good job running city government while at the same time meeting some very difficult challenges. The biggest challenge, he noted, was overcoming the shutdown of federal aid flowing into cities. In 1982, federal funds made up 34 percent of the city budget. Last year, they had dwindled to 9.5 percent.

"If any of my opponents criticize the job I've done, then they better make clear what they would do to make the situation better," the mayor said.

Herbert C. Smith, a political scientist at Western Maryland College who conducts polls for WBAL-TV, agreed that Mr. Schmoke was vulnerable in the area of education. But added that he doesn't detect any broad-based undercurrent of dissent among the voters with the mayor, the kind that last year swept out of office incumbent executives in several of the surrounding counties.

"I think that Kurt came into office with high expectations from the community at large, and from the black community particularly, that he hasn't been quite able to meet," said Mr. Smith.

"His first term understandably has had its ups and downs, but on balance, I think it has been fairly even," added Mr. Smith.

At the very least, the mayor's race should provide a forum for the key issues facing Baltimore to be articulately debated and for the mayor to defend his record. But with the current line-up at least, that doesn't seem promising.

Those running against Mr. Schmoke at this point look like old wine in old bottles.

Mr. Burns, the wily old politician who knows every nook and cranny of city government, could be an effective challenger. But his 1987 campaign was beset from the beginning with squabbling over who was going to manage it. He never hit his stride until very late in the race and he lost by 5,459 votes.

Since his narrow defeat, Mr. Burns has remained very bitter about his loss. He has spent the last four years heaping blame on the media for running polls showing him 20 percentage points behind Mr. Schmoke. The poll numbers, he says, scared away supporters and precious campaign funds he felt could have put

him over the top. He harbors bitterness against Mr. Schmoke for not allowing him to have at least one full term as mayor.

Mr. Burns, 72, doesn't have the power of incumbency this time. And it will not be just a matter of overcoming the 5,000-plus vote deficit he had last time. The conventional rule of thumb by political analysts is that a mayor, without lifting a finger, starts out with 15,000 votes from voters who always pull the lever for the incumbent. This increases the deficit Mr. Burns has to overcome to at least 20,000 votes. He will have to rebuild his base of support all over again and work hard to get the 74,070 votes he got in 1987.

Still, Mr. Burns doesn't have to defend his record or worry about managing a city at the same time he runs for office. He is free to burrow into Mr. Schmoke's weak points and he can illustrate the mayor's mistakes.

"Du is in for a tough race, but if anyone can hold the mayor's feet to the fire, it's Du," said Frank X. Gallagher, a long-time council colleague of Mr. Burns who heads the Gallagher-Cunningham political organization in northeast Baltimore.

Mr. Burns held his opening fund raiser Tuesday night and drew a crowd of more than 500 supporters and friends. Campaign manager Allen Quille said the affair expects to clear nearly $100,000.

"We're not going to even try and match the mayor dollar for dollar, but we'll run a respectable campaign, and we will take it to the mayor," said Mr. Quille.

Mr. Burns is 72, and his age could become a factor in the campaign. But, he says, "I've never felt better in my life."

Mr. Burns has to avoid the temptation to boil his campaign down to a bitter old man standing on the street corner harping at what could have been. That will not do the campaign or the voters any good.

Mr. Swisher, meanwhile, showed his true colors by expressing the hope that two blacks enter the race, leaving him the opportunity to slip to victory as the only white candidate.

He also showed his ignorance of the political landscape. He and Mr. Burns share the same political base, and if both of them stay in the race, they would likely split their support. Both would draw on the backing of the old-line white political machines in Southeast, South and Northwest Baltimore. It happened in 1983 when Mr. Swisher ran for City Council president and finished third behind Mr. Burns and Mary Pat Clarke. Mr. Swisher filed again for council president in 1987 but was pressured out of the race by the old-line clubs which made it clear they were going to support former state Sen. Harry S. McGuirk.

Political observers have said -- and Mr. Swisher himself admitted -- that Mr. Swisher is not likely to raise much money. Potential contributors simply do not see him having a good chance of winning. Except for his abortive attempt to run for office in 1987, Mr. Swisher has been out of the limelight for eight years -- a lifetime in political terms.

Mr. Lapides and Mr. Mosley could, like Mr. Burns, articulate the issues clearly, but time is rapidly passing by and neither is likely to jump into the race.

Probably, the only potential candidate who could give Mr. Schmoke a race and could draw a clear bead on his vulnerability is Council President Mary Pat Clarke. She has extensive support in the black community. Her recent shepherding of the new redistricting plan through the council helped solidify that support.

But Ms. Clarke is reluctant to take on the mayor. She has told people who have urged her to consider it that she doesn't want to run for mayor.

Patrick Gilbert, a reporter for The Evening Sun, writes about Baltimore politics.

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