The public discussion of plans to remake central Columbia has underscored the reality that Howard County's half-century of change from a sleepy farming community to a more urban place is entering a new phase.
The evidence is clear: the three mixed-use projects proposed for Howard's MARC train stations and elsewhere along U.S. 1, new communities such as Maple Lawn, and redevelopment of the 809-acre Turf Valley property in Ellicott City and older shopping centers along U.S. 40.
With thousands of federal defense jobs moving to Central Maryland, the biggest changes will take place in developed areas of Howard, not on farmland, said county planning director Marsha McLaughlin.
"We're pretty much finished greenfield development," she said. "If we don't accommodate the housing that goes with those jobs, we'll end up exporting housing to other counties and those people will drive through Howard County."
Another clear sign is the worsening traffic.
Columbia's traffic is heading toward gridlock with or without redevelopment of the town's core, the County Council was recently told. The only question is how soon, traffic engineers say.
"The volume of traffic is growing," said Mark DeLuca, deputy director of public works and the county's former chief of traffic. Clearly, he told the council, the county will soon need a more sophisticated way to measure and regulate congestion.
"How are we as a county - regardless of downtown - going to handle transportation needs that are just one decade away?" he asked during a recent County Council discussion of the Columbia plan.
"No matter what the development progress, the county will be dealing with the same issues," DeLuca said.
"At some point ... people have to get out of their cars and take other forms of transportation," he said. That means urban-style solutions, including walking, mass transit and bicycles.
And the full downtown proposal will eventually require a third connection to, or across, U.S. 29. "Another way to get out of Town Center is necessary," DeLuca said.
Critics of the plan presented by General Growth Properties, Columbia's master developer, urge careful redevelopment with lower housing density, citing traffic concerns.
"No one has shown that the full amount of development can be accommodated," Columbia Association board member Alex Hekemian told County Council members at a recent meeting.
He and other members of the Howard County Citizens Association, are urging the council to approve only 2,000 of the 5,500 new residential units sought by General Growth Properties.
State Del. Elizabeth Bobo, a Howard County Democrat, recently circulated an e-mail noting that state highway officials have not studied whether a new connection between Columbia and U.S. 29 is feasible, and traffic engineers say the full GGP plan cannot be built without one or something like it.
"Our board finds this unconscionable and even reckless," HCCA President Bridget Mugane wrote in a recent e-mail to supporters. She wants a full feasibility study before any redevelopment plan is approved.
"I think in Columbia, we have a suburban model. That's why people came here to raise their children on quiet streets," she said, adding that the citizens association supports enhancement of Town Center "to make it more interesting," but not as dense as GGP proposes.
General Growth officials such as Columbia general manager Gregory F. Hamm say that sharply limiting the number of new residences in the zoning for redevelopment would make it much harder to attract capital for the project. They say that the rezoning bill would ensure that development would not overwhelm roads and schools.
Martin Wells, a private traffic consultant working for GGP, told the council that the new connection to U.S. 29 would not be needed until up to 65 percent of the new residences are built.
"A vibrant, open place has streets that are well-used," he said. And if traffic becomes too congested, a revamped growth-control law would stop Columbia redevelopment until a solution was found.
"We need more transit and other connections," said Council Chairwoman Courtney Watson, an Ellicott City Democrat.
General Growth Properties wants the council to approve zoning for 5,500 new residential units, 4.3 million square feet of office space, at least one large hotel and 1.25 million square feet of retail space in Columbia over the next three decades.
DeLuca suggested that Howard County cannot continue to use a single suburban standard for measuring traffic congestion countywide because even if the GGP plan flops, the delays in Town Center and at busy intersections in Ellicott City, Elkridge and Clarksville will keep getting worse.
That means a new way is needed to measure traffic congestion in the county's Adequate Public Facilities Ordinance - the 17-year-old law used to limit development around crowded schools or intersections.